{
  "date": "2026-04-06",
  "generated": "2026-04-06T07:23:46",
  "model_version": "2.5",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Borges, Nuno",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Rublev": "80%",
        "victoire_Borges": "20%",
        "over_jeux": "48%",
        "set_Rublev": "92%",
        "set_Borges": "49%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Rublev": 1.28,
        "Borges": 3.4
      },
      "total_estime": "21.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Rublev (18e mondial) affronte Borges avec un H2H de 3-0 sans set perdu. Le Russe, ancien champion MC 2023, possede un bilan clay career de 133-77. Borges (7-11 en 2026) est en difficulte cette saison. Premier match clay de la saison pour les deux, mais le differentiel de niveau est clair.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Rublev",
        "joueur_2": "Borges",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            18,
            45
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "10-6",
            "7-11"
          ],
          "bilan_surface": [
            "133-77 (career)",
            "131-68 (career)"
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "h2h": "3-0",
          "h2h_surface": "0-0 (premier clay)"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech, Arthur vs Khachanov, Karen",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Edge negatif apres shrinkage. Le marche surcote Khachanov par rapport a mon estimation. H2H 0-1 (Rinderknech). Aucun des deux n'a joue sur terre en 2026.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Rinderknech": "33%",
        "victoire_Khachanov": "67%",
        "over_jeux": "50%",
        "set_Rinderknech": "62%",
        "set_Khachanov": "88%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Rinderknech": 2.72,
        "Khachanov": 1.41
      },
      "total_estime": "22.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Khachanov (15e) est favori logique mais 7-7 en 2026 et premier match terre. Rinderknech (27e) a le H2H 1-0 et un style puissant qui peut gêner. Le marche a 1.41 semble juste. Pas d'avantage informationnel.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Rinderknech",
        "joueur_2": "Khachanov",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            27,
            15
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "5-7",
            "7-7"
          ],
          "h2h": "1-0 Rinderknech",
          "h2h_surface": "0-0"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Lehecka, Jiri vs Nava, Emilio",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Lehecka": "82%",
        "victoire_Nava": "18%",
        "over_jeux": "46%",
        "set_Lehecka": "93%",
        "set_Nava": "47%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Lehecka": 1.24,
        "Nava": 3.7
      },
      "total_estime": "21.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Lehecka (tete de serie 11) affronte le qualifie Nava (104e). Le Tcheque a un bilan solide 11-6 en 2026 et a montre sa forme en remportant le double avec Mensik contre Khachanov/Rublev. Nava a battu Goffin en qualifs mais le gap de niveau est significatif.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Lehecka",
        "joueur_2": "Nava",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            11,
            104
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "11-6",
            "11-10"
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "h2h": "0-0"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Bergs, Zizou vs Mannarino, Adrian",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Edge quasi-nul apres shrinkage (-0.3%). Bergs 6-7 en 2026 sans match clay. Mannarino H2H 1-0. Le marche est bien calibre.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Bergs": "79%",
        "victoire_Mannarino": "21%",
        "over_jeux": "47%",
        "set_Bergs": "92%",
        "set_Mannarino": "51%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Bergs": 1.26,
        "Mannarino": 3.55
      },
      "total_estime": "21.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Bergs est favori a 1.26 mais son bilan 6-7 en 2026 et l'absence de match clay cette saison font douter. Mannarino, malgre ses 78-131 career clay, a l'avantage du H2H 1-0 et de l'experience. Le marche est efficace ici.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Bergs",
        "joueur_2": "Mannarino",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            26,
            52
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "6-7",
            "7-11"
          ],
          "h2h": "0-1",
          "bilan_surface": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "78-131 (career)"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Baez, Sebastian vs Wawrinka, Stan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — cotes sur une seule source. Wawrinka wildcard a 41 ans, impredictible sur terre. Edge non quantifiable.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Baez": "70%",
        "victoire_Wawrinka": "30%",
        "over_jeux": "52%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Baez": 1.4,
        "Wawrinka": 2.78
      },
      "total_estime": "23.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Baez est favori logique mais DQ-B. Wawrinka en wildcard sur un tournoi qu'il a gagne en 2014 — le Suisse peut toujours surprendre sur terre.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Garin, Cristian vs Arnaldi, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Match tres equilibre (1.59/2.24). Pas de favori clair. Edge trop faible pour les deux cotes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Garin": "58%",
        "victoire_Arnaldi": "42%",
        "over_jeux": "52%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Garin": 1.59,
        "Arnaldi": 2.24
      },
      "total_estime": "23.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Garin favori a 1.59 mais Arnaldi est un solide terrien italien. Match trop serré pour identifier un edge.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Garin",
        "joueur_2": "Arnaldi",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            42,
            36
          ],
          "h2h": "[NON VERIFIE]"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Altmaier, Daniel vs Machac, Tomas",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Match equilibre (1.58/2.26). Machac favori mais edge negatif apres shrinkage.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Altmaier": "39%",
        "victoire_Machac": "61%",
        "over_jeux": "51%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Altmaier": 2.26,
        "Machac": 1.58
      },
      "total_estime": "22.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Machac (1.58) a le talent mais pas d'edge net par rapport au marche. Match tactiquement interessant mais pas de pari identifie.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Altmaier",
        "joueur_2": "Machac",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            64,
            22
          ],
          "h2h": "[NON VERIFIE]"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo, Francisco vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Match equilibre (1.78/1.95). Cerundolo en meilleure forme clay (7-2) mais H2H 0-2. Edge +1.4% pour Cerundolo mais p_finale <72%, cote 1.78 trop proche de 2.00 pour conviction forte.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Cerundolo": "58%",
        "victoire_Tsitsipas": "42%",
        "over_jeux": "53%",
        "set_Cerundolo": "80%",
        "set_Tsitsipas": "69%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Cerundolo": 1.78,
        "Tsitsipas": 1.95
      },
      "total_estime": "23.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Cerundolo (14-6, 7-2 clay) est en forme superieure a Tsitsipas (49e mondial, en crise). Le H2H 2-0 pour Tsitsipas est un frein mais jamais joue sur terre. Match ouvert, pas de pari clair.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Cerundolo",
        "joueur_2": "Tsitsipas",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            21,
            49
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "14-6",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "bilan_surface": [
            "7-2",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "h2h": "0-2",
          "h2h_surface": "0-0"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Fonseca, Joao vs Diallo, Gabriel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Fonseca": "80%",
        "victoire_Diallo": "20%",
        "over_jeux": "46%",
        "set_Fonseca": "92%",
        "set_Diallo": "49%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Fonseca": 1.27,
        "Diallo": 3.45
      },
      "total_estime": "21.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Fonseca (19 ans, talent exceptionnel) a rivalise avec Sinner et Alcaraz recemment. Diallo (24 ans, 17-16 career clay) est surclasse sur cette surface. H2H 1-1 mais sur hard. Sur terre, l'ecart de qualite est manifeste.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Fonseca",
        "joueur_2": "Diallo",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            30,
            74
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "bilan_surface": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "17-16 (career)"
          ],
          "h2h": "1-1",
          "h2h_surface": "0-0"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Comesana, Francisco",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Cobolli 9-7 en 2026, forme irreguliere. Edge +1.1% mais p_finale 63.6% trop basse pour CONFIANCE, et edge trop faible pour VALUE.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Cobolli": "64%",
        "victoire_Comesana": "36%",
        "over_jeux": "51%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Cobolli": 1.6,
        "Comesana": 2.22
      },
      "total_estime": "23.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Cobolli (13e mondial, champion Acapulco) a le talent mais est irregulier cette saison. Comesana (87e) a impressionne en qualifs. Le gap est reel mais pas suffisant pour un pari.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Cobolli",
        "joueur_2": "Comesana",
        "surface": "Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            13,
            87
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "9-7",
            "6-9"
          ],
          "h2h": "[NON VERIFIE]"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Shapovalov, Denis vs Blockx, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Match extremement equilibre (1.83/1.89). Aucun favori clair. Cote >= 1.80 = risque trop eleve sans edge mesurable.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Shapovalov": "52%",
        "victoire_Blockx": "48%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Shapovalov": 1.83,
        "Blockx": 1.89
      },
      "total_estime": "23.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "50/50 match. Shapovalov talentueux mais tres irregulier, Blockx en progression. Aucune conviction possible.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Vacherot, Valentin vs Cerundolo, Juan Manuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Pas de cotes completes dans les donnees. JM Cerundolo favori logique mais edge non quantifiable.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Vacherot": "35%",
        "victoire_JM_Cerundolo": "65%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "JM Cerundolo devrait etre favori sur terre contre Vacherot, mais les cotes completes manquent.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Korpatsch, Tamara vs Timofeeva, Maria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Korpatsch favorite a 1.56 mais p_finale ~62%, pas de conviction forte. Match serré.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Korpatsch": "62%",
        "victoire_Timofeeva": "38%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Korpatsch": 1.56,
        "Timofeeva": 2.3
      },
      "total_estime": "21.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Korpatsch favorite a domicile mais pas d'edge net apres shrinkage. Match incertain.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Volynets, Katie vs Salkova, Dominika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Edge negatif (-0.4%) apres shrinkage. Le marche est bien calibre.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Volynets": "74%",
        "victoire_Salkova": "26%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Volynets": 1.34,
        "Salkova": 3.05
      },
      "total_estime": "20.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Volynets favorite logique mais le marche a 1.34 reflete deja sa superiorite. Pas d'avantage informationnel.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Sasnovich, Aliaksandra vs Kalinina, Anhelina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Kalinina (18-1 clay en 2026!) est en forme exceptionnelle mais le marche ne la favore pas assez. Edge +1% mais p_finale 67.7% trop basse pour CONFIANCE.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Sasnovich": "33%",
        "victoire_Kalinina": "67%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Sasnovich": 2.44,
        "Kalinina": 1.5
      },
      "total_estime": "21.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Kalinina a un bilan clay exceptionnel (18-1 en 2026) mais classee 189e — le marche sous-estime peut-etre sa forme. Edge modeste insuffisant pour un pari.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Sasnovich",
        "joueur_2": "Kalinina",
        "surface": "Indoor Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            100,
            189
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "16-5"
          ],
          "bilan_surface": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "18-1 clay 2026"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Shymanovich, Iryna vs Vekic, Donna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — cotes sur une seule source. Vekic tres favorite a 1.18 mais edge minime et DQ-B interdit en CONFIANCE.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Shymanovich": "15%",
        "victoire_Vekic": "85%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Shymanovich": 4.4,
        "Vekic": 1.18
      },
      "total_estime": "19.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Vekic (11-9 en 2026, 4-1 clay) est largement favorite. Shymanovich (8-9, 4-4 clay) classee 166e. Mais DQ-B empeche tout pari.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Parks, Alycia vs Galfi, Dalma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B. Galfi favorite a 1.45 mais donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Parks": "38%",
        "victoire_Galfi": "62%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Parks": 2.58,
        "Galfi": 1.45
      },
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B empeche toute analyse solide.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Stephens, Sloane vs Maria, Tatjana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Stephens (554e WTA, 4-6 en 2026) vs Maria (60e, 3-11). Les deux en mauvaise forme. Match impredictible, pas de favori fiable.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Stephens": "55%",
        "victoire_Maria": "45%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Stephens": 1.67,
        "Maria": 2.1
      },
      "total_estime": "22.0 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Deux joueuses en difficulte cette saison. Stephens en wild card apres une quasi-retraite, Maria 3-11. Aucune fiabilite pour un pronostic.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Stephens",
        "joueur_2": "Maria",
        "surface": "Indoor Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            554,
            60
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "4-6",
            "3-11"
          ],
          "h2h": "2-1 Stephens"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Boulter, Katie vs Ruse, Elena-Gabriela",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz",
      "heure": "15:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Ruse favorite (1.65) mais edge modeste. Boulter @2.14 >= 2.00 = BANNI. Ruse ML n'atteint pas le seuil de conviction.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Boulter": "42%",
        "victoire_Ruse": "58%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "Boulter": 2.14,
        "Ruse": 1.65
      },
      "total_estime": "22.5 jeux",
      "raisonnement": "Ruse (83e, 166-94 career clay) a l'avantage sur terre. Boulter (64e, 11-5 en 2026) est plus en forme globalement. Premier H2H. Match equilibre.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Boulter",
        "joueur_2": "Ruse",
        "surface": "Indoor Clay",
        "stats": {
          "classement_atp_wta": [
            64,
            83
          ],
          "bilan_saison": [
            "11-5",
            "9-8"
          ],
          "bilan_surface": [
            "19-16 (career)",
            "166-94 (career)"
          ],
          "h2h": "0-0"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Udinese Calcio vs Como 1907",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Como favori a 1.67. DC 2X trop court (~1.12). ML Como cote < 2.00 mais edge insuffisant apres shrinkage foot 0.65.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "18%",
        "nul": "25%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "57%",
        "over_25": "[NON VERIFIE]",
        "btts": "[NON VERIFIE]"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 5.2,
        "nul": 3.7,
        "exterieur": 1.67
      },
      "total_estime": "2.4 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Como favori logique a l'exterieur mais le marche reflete deja cette superiorite.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "US Lecce vs Atalanta BC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Atalanta favorite mais 5 matchs sans victoire a l'exterieur. DC 2X ~1.17 avec edge ~1.6% insuffisant compte tenu de la forme ext. Chaos 2.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "18%",
        "nul": "27%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "55%",
        "over_25": "52%",
        "btts": "48%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 4.8,
        "nul": 3.55,
        "exterieur": 1.74
      },
      "total_estime": "2.3 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Lecce 18e avec 4 defaites en 5 matchs. Atalanta 7e mais 5 matchs sans victoire ext. Cette serie est un red flag majeur. Lecce tres faible offensivement (0.65 buts/match). DC 2X logique mais l'edge est trop mince.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "football",
        "equipe_1": "Lecce",
        "equipe_2": "Atalanta",
        "stats": {
          "position_classement": [
            18,
            7
          ],
          "buts_marques_par_match": [
            0.65,
            1.75
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "D-D-V-D-D",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "absences_cles": [
            "Gaspar, Coulibaly, Berisha, Sottil",
            "Hien, Scamacca (questionable)"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Juventus Turin vs Genoa CFC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Juve ML @1.36. DC 1X trop court (~1.05). ML favori football : p_finale = 74.5%, inferieur au seuil 75% requis. Forme recente Juve mediocre (2V/5).",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "74%",
        "nul": "17%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "9%",
        "over_25": "48%",
        "btts": "40%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 1.36,
        "nul": 4.6,
        "exterieur": 9.0
      },
      "total_estime": "2.1 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Juve n'a pas perdu a domicile vs Genoa depuis 1991 (44V/7N/2D en 57 matchs a Turin). Mais seulement 2V en 5 matchs recemment. Genoa sans Cuffy et Cornet. p_finale 74.5% juste sous le seuil 75%.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "football",
        "equipe_1": "Juventus",
        "equipe_2": "Genoa",
        "stats": {
          "position_classement": [
            5,
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "V-N-V-N-D",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "h2h_5_derniers": "Juve dominant (44-7-2 a domicile historique)",
          "absences_cles": [
            "Aucune",
            "Cuffy, Cornet"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "SSC Napoli vs AC Milan",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "18:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "42%",
        "nul": "28%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "30%",
        "over_25": "55%",
        "btts": "58%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 2.48,
        "nul": 2.94,
        "exterieur": 3.15
      },
      "total_estime": "2.7 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Napoli (3e, 62 pts) accueille Milan (2e, 63 pts) au Maradona. Napoli sur 25 matchs d'invinciblite a domicile (18V/7N), la plus longue serie en cours dans le top 5 europeen. 4 victoires consecutives. Milan fort en deplacement (9V/5N/1D) mais le Maradona est une forteresse. xG Napoli recents 1.74 en faveur. DC 1X est le pari le plus logique.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "football",
        "equipe_1": "Napoli",
        "equipe_2": "AC Milan",
        "stats": {
          "position_classement": [
            3,
            2
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "V-V-V-V-[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "buts_marques_par_match": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "xg_pour": [
            1.74,
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "xg_contre": [
            0.33,
            2.24
          ],
          "h2h_5_derniers": "Napoli 15-13-11 historique",
          "absences_cles": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Girona FC vs Villarreal CF",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "La Liga",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Match equilibre. Villarreal favori a 2.24 mais cote >= 2.00 = BANNI. DC 2X ~1.30 edge insuffisant.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "30%",
        "nul": "28%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "42%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 3.05,
        "nul": 3.4,
        "exterieur": 2.24
      },
      "total_estime": "2.5 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Villarreal superieur mais match a l'exterieur. Cote exterieur >= 2.00 = banni par protocole v2.5.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "23:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NBA ML non autorise par protocole v2.5 (seuls marches tennis ML, tennis set, DC foot, ML foot sont autorises). Hawks en serie historique (13 victoires dom, 19-3 post-ASB) mais marche banni.",
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "55%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "45%",
        "over_total": "50%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 1.81,
        "exterieur": 2.0
      },
      "total_estime": "229.5 pts",
      "raisonnement": "Hawks (13 victoires consecutives a domicile, 19-3 post-ASB) vs Knicks (50-28, 3e Est). KAT de retour. Match potentiel apercu playoff. Marche NBA non couvert par v2.5.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "basketball",
        "equipe_1": "Hawks",
        "equipe_2": "Knicks",
        "stats": {
          "bilan_saison": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "50-28"
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "[NON VERIFIE]",
            "[NON VERIFIE]"
          ],
          "absences_cles": [
            "Landale (cheville)",
            "Jemison (out), KAT (disponible)"
          ],
          "h2h_saison": "[NON VERIFIE]"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Orlando Magic vs Detroit Pistons",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "23:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NBA ML non autorise par protocole v2.5. Detroit favori @1.60 mais marche banni.",
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "42%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "58%",
        "over_total": "51%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 2.34,
        "exterieur": 1.6
      },
      "total_estime": "226.5 pts",
      "raisonnement": "Pistons menent la serie de saison 2-1. Magic en difficulte. Pistons 117.3 PPG, Magic 115.4 PPG. Marche non autorise v2.5.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "basketball",
        "equipe_1": "Magic",
        "equipe_2": "Pistons",
        "stats": {
          "pts_par_match": [
            115.4,
            117.3
          ],
          "pts_encaisses_par_match": [
            114.5,
            109.5
          ],
          "h2h_saison": "2-1 Pistons"
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Janicijevic, Selena vs Avanesyan, Elina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "08:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "WTA 125K — edge faible apres shrinkage, donnees limitees sur les joueuses.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Avanesyan": "78%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "J": 3.3,
        "A": 1.29
      },
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K. Avanesyan favorite mais niveau du tournoi et donnees insuffisantes pour un pari fiable.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Saito, Sara vs Diaz Adrover, Cristina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "08:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "WTA 125K — edge faible apres shrinkage, donnees limitees sur les joueuses.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Saito": "70%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "S": 1.39,
        "D": 2.76
      },
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K. Saito favorite mais niveau du tournoi et donnees insuffisantes pour un pari fiable.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Werner, Caroline vs Tona, Miriana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "09:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "WTA 125K — edge faible apres shrinkage, donnees limitees sur les joueuses.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Werner": "82%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "W": 1.23,
        "T": 3.7
      },
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K. Werner favorite mais niveau du tournoi et donnees insuffisantes pour un pari fiable.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Jones, Francesca vs Mandlik, Elizabeth",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "10:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "WTA 125K — edge faible apres shrinkage, donnees limitees sur les joueuses.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_Jones": "72%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "J": 1.36,
        "M": 2.88
      },
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K. Jones favorite mais niveau du tournoi et donnees insuffisantes pour un pari fiable.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Hercog, Polona vs Martinez Cirez, Carlota",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "08:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B, pas assez de sources pour evaluer.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Brancaccio, Nuria vs Ponchet, Jessika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "09:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B, pas assez de sources pour evaluer.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Kudermetova, Polina vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "09:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B, pas assez de sources pour evaluer.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Mintegi Del Olmo, Ane vs Burillo Escorihuela, Irene",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B, pas assez de sources pour evaluer.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Yuan, Yue vs Gallardo Guevara, Carmen",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B — donnees insuffisantes.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "DQ-B, pas assez de sources pour evaluer.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Portsmouth FC vs Oxford United",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Millwall FC vs Norwich City",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Blackburn Rovers vs West Bromwich Albion",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Bristol City vs Sheffield United",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Derby County vs Stoke City",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Ipswich Town vs Birmingham City",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Preston North End vs Queens Park Rangers",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Sheffield Wednesday vs Leicester City",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Watford FC vs Charlton Athletic",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Swansea City vs Middlesbrough FC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Hull City vs Coventry City",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Championship tier2 — DC foot uniquement autorise mais edge non identifie. Donnees insuffisantes pour calibrer le modele.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Championship tier2. Pas de recherche approfondie realisee sur ces matchs.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "FC Arouca vs Estoril Praia",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Liga Portugal",
      "heure": "17:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Liga Portugal tier2 — pas de recherche approfondie. DC possible mais edge non verifie.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tier2, donnees non collectees en detail.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Casa Pia Lisbon vs SL Benfica",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Liga Portugal",
      "heure": "19:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Liga Portugal tier2 — pas de recherche approfondie. DC possible mais edge non verifie.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tier2, donnees non collectees en detail.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "de Minaur A / Norrie C vs Berrettini M / Vavassori A",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Doubles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Double tennis — marche non couvert par protocole v2.5.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match de doubles non analyse en detail.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Arneodo R / Herbert P-H vs Gonzalez M / Molteni A",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Doubles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Double tennis — marche non couvert par protocole v2.5.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match de doubles non analyse en detail.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Cabral F / Salisbury J vs Nys H / Roger-Vasselin E",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Doubles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Double tennis — marche non couvert par protocole v2.5.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match de doubles non analyse en detail.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Lajovic, Dusan vs Bellucci, Mattia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakamoto, Rei vs Carballes Baena, Roberto",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Nagal, Sumit vs Kasnikowski, Maks",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "09:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Bondioli, Federico vs Guerrieri, Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "08:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Gombos, Norbert vs Caniato, Carlo Alberto",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "08:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Arnaboldi, Federico vs Andaloro, Fabrizio",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "09:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Squire, Henri vs Vasami, Jacopo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "09:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Echargui, Moez vs Bertola, Remy",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Monza",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Shelbayh, Abdullah vs Roca Batalla, Oriol",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Agamenone, Franco vs Palosi, Stefan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Dedura-Palomero, Diego vs Montes-de la Torre, Inaki",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Butvilas, Edas vs Sanchez Jover, Carlos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Perez Contri, Sergi vs Gea, Arthur",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Llamas Ruiz, Pablo vs Ferreira Silva, Frederico",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Loffhagen, George vs Piros, Zsombor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Madrid",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Bennani, Reda vs Karki, Ronit",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Kuzuhara, Bruno vs Sheehy, Joshua",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Feldbausch, Kilian vs Harper, Cleeve",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "15:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Dostanic, Stefan vs Purtseladze, Saba",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Zink, Tyler vs Smith, Colton",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Glinka, Daniil vs Wolf, Jeffrey John",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Mitchell vs Barton, Hynek",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "18:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Rybakov, Alex vs Damm Jr, Martin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Sarasota",
      "heure": "22:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Rodrigues, Natan vs Pereira, Jose",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Campinas",
      "heure": "14:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Boscardin Dias, Pedro vs Rodriguez, Lorenzo Joaquin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Campinas",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Braga, Victor vs Varillas, Juan Pablo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Campinas",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Torres, Juan Bautista vs Ambrogi, Luciano Emanuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Campinas",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "La Serna, Juan Manuel vs Camargo Lima, Enzo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Campinas",
      "heure": "21:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Zahraj, Patrick vs Artnak, Bor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Marrero Curbelo, Ivan vs Orlov, Vladyslav",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Ayeni, Alafia vs Colson, Tibo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Perot, Raphael vs Kozlov, Stefan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "21:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Denolly, Corentin vs Huesler, Marc-Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "22:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Martin, Andres vs Napolitano, Stefano",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Mexico City",
      "heure": "22:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Binda, Alexandr vs Uchida, Kaichi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Wuning",
      "heure": "05:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Paris, Tom vs Simakin, Ilia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Wuning",
      "heure": "06:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Kotov, Pavel vs Smith, Keegan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "Challenger Wuning",
      "heure": "06:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Challenger — pas de recherche approfondie. Protocole v2.5 concentre sur ML favori tier1.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match Challenger non analyse en profondeur.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Eikeri U / Gleason Q vs Potapova A / Tagger L",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz Doubles",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Double tennis — non couvert.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Doubles non analysés.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Martins I / Samson L vs Selekhmeteva O / Waltert S",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Madrid Doubles",
      "heure": "10:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Double tennis — non couvert.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Doubles non analysés.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    },
    {
      "match": "Maleckova J / Skoch M vs Panova A / Wu F-H",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 Linz Doubles",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Doubles non couvert. DQ-C.",
      "niveau_confiance": "faible",
      "probabilites": {},
      "cote_indicative": null,
      "total_estime": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match de doubles WTA non analyse.",
      "stats_comparatives": null
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Borges, Nuno",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "marche": "ML",
      "selection": "Rublev ML",
      "cote": 1.28,
      "cote_plancher": 1.27,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 20,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=79.5%, f_full=2.8%, qk=0.7%, shrinkage 0.75, chaos*1.0, CONFIANT fixe 2u",
      "edge_estime": "+1.4%",
      "probabilite_estimee": "80%",
      "probabilite_marche": "78.1%",
      "probabilite_finale": "79.5%",
      "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% (76.5%), edge = -1.6% -> fragile. Mais H2H 3-0 sans set perdu et MC 2023 champion = conviction haute.",
      "raisonnement": "Rublev (18e) vs Borges — H2H 3-0, ancien champion MC 2023, bilan clay career 133-77. Borges 7-11 en 2026. Premier match clay de la saison mais le differentiel de niveau est majeur.",
      "categorie": "CONFIANCE",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut": "CONFIANCE",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "match": "Lehecka, Jiri vs Nava, Emilio",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "marche": "ML",
      "selection": "Lehecka ML",
      "cote": 1.24,
      "cote_plancher": 1.23,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 20,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=81.7%, f_full=3.0%, qk=0.75%, shrinkage 0.75, chaos*1.0, CONFIANT fixe 2u",
      "edge_estime": "+1.1%",
      "probabilite_estimee": "82%",
      "probabilite_marche": "80.6%",
      "probabilite_finale": "81.7%",
      "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% (78.7%), edge = -1.9% -> fragile en isolation. Mais seed 11 vs qualifier 104e, victoire doubles MC, forme confirmee = conviction haute.",
      "raisonnement": "Lehecka (seed 11, 11-6 en 2026) vs Nava qualifie (104e, 11-10). Gap de niveau significatif. Le Tcheque a gagne son double avec Mensik vs Khachanov/Rublev hier, signe de bonne forme.",
      "categorie": "CONFIANCE",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut": "CONFIANCE",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Monte Carlo Masters 1000",
      "match": "Fonseca, Joao vs Diallo, Gabriel",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "marche": "ML",
      "selection": "Fonseca ML",
      "cote": 1.27,
      "cote_plancher": 1.26,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 20,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=79.7%, f_full=2.7%, qk=0.68%, shrinkage 0.75, chaos*1.0, CONFIANT fixe 2u",
      "edge_estime": "+1.0%",
      "probabilite_estimee": "80%",
      "probabilite_marche": "78.7%",
      "probabilite_finale": "79.7%",
      "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% (76.7%), edge = -2.0% -> fragile. Mais Fonseca a rivalise avec Sinner/Alcaraz, Diallo 17-16 career clay = faible terrien. Conviction haute.",
      "raisonnement": "Fonseca (19 ans, talent top 10 potentiel) vs Diallo (74e, 17-16 career clay). Le Bresilien a joue avec Sinner et Alcaraz cette saison. Diallo est surclasse sur terre battue.",
      "categorie": "CONFIANCE",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut": "CONFIANCE",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    },
    {
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "match": "SSC Napoli vs AC Milan",
      "heure": "18:45",
      "marche": "Double Chance",
      "selection": "Napoli ou Nul (DC 1X)",
      "cote": 1.33,
      "cote_plancher": 1.3,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=79.6%, f_full=5.2%, qk=1.3%, shrinkage 0.65, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=6.5 EUR -> SOLIDE fixe 1u",
      "edge_estime": "+4.4%",
      "probabilite_estimee": "82%",
      "probabilite_marche": "75.2%",
      "probabilite_finale": "79.6%",
      "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% (76.6%), edge = +1.4% -> reste positif. DC solide avec 25 matchs invaincu dom. Test cote: meme a 1.28, edge reste >0%.",
      "raisonnement": "Napoli (3e, 62 pts) invaincu a domicile depuis 25 matchs (18V/7N), plus longue serie du top 5 europeen. 4V consecutives. Milan (2e, 63 pts) fort en deplacement mais le Maradona est imprenable. xG Napoli recents 1.74 pour, 0.33 contre. DC 1X est le pari le plus solide du programme foot.",
      "categorie": "VALUE",
      "palier": "SOLIDE",
      "statut": "VALUE",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech vs Khachanov",
      "raison": "Edge negatif apres shrinkage. Marche bien calibre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bergs vs Mannarino",
      "raison": "Edge quasi-nul. Bergs 6-7 en 2026, pas de match clay."
    },
    {
      "match": "Baez vs Wawrinka",
      "raison": "DQ-B. Wawrinka impredictible en wildcard."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo vs Tsitsipas",
      "raison": "Match equilibre 1.78/1.95. Edge faible, p_finale <72%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Garin vs Arnaldi",
      "raison": "Match serré 1.59/2.24. Pas de favori clair."
    },
    {
      "match": "Altmaier vs Machac",
      "raison": "Edge negatif pour Machac apres shrinkage."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli vs Comesana",
      "raison": "Cobolli irregulier (9-7). Edge +1.1% mais p_finale trop basse."
    },
    {
      "match": "Shapovalov vs Blockx",
      "raison": "Match 50/50. Aucune conviction possible."
    },
    {
      "match": "Boulter vs Ruse",
      "raison": "Ruse favorite @1.65 mais pas assez de conviction. Boulter @2.14 >= 2.00 = banni."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stephens vs Maria",
      "raison": "Deux joueuses en difficulte. Aucune fiabilite."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic vs Shymanovich",
      "raison": "DQ-B interdit en CONFIANCE."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sasnovich vs Kalinina",
      "raison": "Edge +1% mais p_finale 67.7% trop basse."
    },
    {
      "match": "Juventus vs Genoa",
      "raison": "ML @1.36 mais p_finale 74.5% < seuil 75% requis foot."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lecce vs Atalanta",
      "raison": "Atalanta 5 ext sans victoire. Chaos 2. Edge trop mince."
    },
    {
      "match": "Udinese vs Como",
      "raison": "DC 2X trop court. Edge insuffisant."
    },
    {
      "match": "Girona vs Villarreal",
      "raison": "Villarreal ext @2.24 >= 2.00 = banni."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hawks vs Knicks",
      "raison": "NBA ML non autorise par protocole v2.5."
    },
    {
      "match": "Magic vs Pistons",
      "raison": "NBA ML non autorise par protocole v2.5."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gagne au moins un set (tous matchs)",
      "raison": "Cotes specifiques non trouvees via web search. Favori-side ~1.08-1.10 trop court. Underdog-side >= 2.00 = banni."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 4,
    "exposition_totale_euros": 70,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "7.0u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 19.1,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+27.3%"
    }
  }
}