{ "date": "2026-04-27", "generated": "2026-04-27T05:28:36", "model_version": "3.0", "analyses": [ { "match": "Manchester United vs Brentford FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Premier League", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC 1X=1.30 (limite exacte, Kelly quasi nul) — edge DC 3.6% < 7%, OU 4.8% < 6%, BTTS 4.8% < 6%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "52%", "nul": "26%", "victoire_exterieur": "27%", "over_25": "68%", "btts": "74%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.91, "nul": 3.7, "exterieur": 3.7 }, "total_estime": "2.3 buts", "raisonnement": "MU 3e sous Carrick (8V en 12 matchs), reçoit Brentford 9e (5 nuls consécutifs). DC 1X=1.30 trop proche du plancher NO BET 1. Edge insuffisant sur tous marchés malgré avantage domicile solide.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Manchester United", "equipe_2": "Brentford FC", "stats": { "forme_5_derniers": [ "V-V-N-V-V", "N-N-N-N-N" ], "absences_cles": [ "[NON VERIFIE]", "[NON VERIFIE]" ] } } }, { "match": "Espanyol Barcelona vs Levante UD", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC 1X=1.29 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — DC X2 edge 3.9% < 7%, OU2.5 coin flip, edge insuffisant sur tous marchés", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "46%", "nul": "30%", "victoire_exterieur": "30%", "over_25": "50%", "btts": "56%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.02, "nul": 3.3, "exterieur": 3.8 }, "total_estime": "2.1 buts", "raisonnement": "Match La Liga serré entre Espanyol et Levante. DC 1X interdit (1.29 < 1.30). Aucun marché ne génère l'edge requis après shrinkage.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Cagliari Calcio vs Atalanta BC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC X2=1.22 < 1.30 NO BET 1, DC 12=1.28 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — OU Over 1.83 edge 6.5% mais test robustesse échoue (-3% sous seuil 6%), Atalanta fatigue post-Coppa Italia", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "14%", "nul": "24%", "victoire_exterieur": "62%", "over_25": "61%", "btts": "42%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 4.4, "nul": 3.75, "exterieur": 1.76 }, "total_estime": "2.3 buts", "raisonnement": "Cagliari 16e (33 pts) sans victoire en 10 matchs, reçoit Atalanta 7e (poussant pour Europe) qui vient de perdre la Coppa aux tirs au but vs Lazio. Atalanta gagne 5/6 déplacements ici. OU Over 1.83 borderline (edge 6.5%) mais test robustesse fragile : si p_finale -3% l'edge tombe sous le seuil. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Cagliari Calcio", "equipe_2": "Atalanta BC", "stats": { "position_classement": [ 16, 7 ], "forme_5_derniers": [ "D-D-D-N-D", "V-V-N-V-N" ], "absences_cles": [ "[NON VERIFIE]", "fatigue Coppa Italia (tirs au but vs Lazio)" ] } } }, { "match": "Lazio Rome vs Udinese Calcio", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "18:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC 1X=1.27 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — OU Under edge 5.4% < 6%, BTTS No edge 3.9% < 6%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "46%", "nul": "28%", "victoire_exterieur": "26%", "over_25": "41%", "btts": "47%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.02, "nul": 3.15, "exterieur": 3.9 }, "total_estime": "2.1 buts", "raisonnement": "Lazio (9e) survole après victoire Coppa Italia vs Atalanta (demi-finale). Udinese a gagné 2-0 vs Genoa et 3-0 vs Milan en déplacement. Udinese sans Davis (top scorer). Edge OU Under 5.4% insuffisant (seuil 6%). Udinese contre-attaque bien malgré absence Davis. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Lazio Rome", "equipe_2": "Udinese Calcio", "stats": { "position_classement": [ 9, "[NON VERIFIE]" ], "absences_cles": [ "légère fatigue Coppa", "Keinan Davis (top scorer, blessé)" ] } } }, { "match": "Gil Vicente Barcelos vs Casa Pia Lisbon", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC 1X=1.17 < 1.30 NO BET 1, DC 12=1.27 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — DC X2=2.26 (zone 2.00-2.50) edge 6.8% < 9% requis (NO BET 2) — ligue tier2", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "55%", "nul": "26%", "victoire_exterieur": "19%", "over_25": "49%", "btts": "51%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.6, "nul": 3.75, "exterieur": 5.4 }, "total_estime": "1.9 buts", "raisonnement": "Liga Portugal tier2. DC 1X et 12 sous le seuil NO BET 1. DC X2 dans la zone 2.00-2.50 : edge 6.8% bien inférieur aux 9% requis. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Wang, Jiaqi vs Panshina, Varvara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Guo, Meiqi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Zolotareva, Rada vs Wei, Zhang-Qian", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Zhu, Amy vs Yuan, Chengyiyi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "04:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Zheng, Wushuang vs MA, Yexin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "04:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Mikulskyte, Justina vs Lansere, Sofya", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "05:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match déjà commencé lors de la collecte (05:10 UTC < 05:09 collecte). ML Mikulskyte 2.16 / Lansere 1.62 — p_marche Lansere 0.617, p_finale estimée 0.649, edge 3.2% < 7% de toute façon", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.16, "exterieur": 1.62 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Match en cours. WTA 125K, edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Zhao, Carol vs Kawa, Katarzyna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "05:50", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Kawa 1.10 < 1.30. Zhao ML 5.80 trop long (> 3.50 hors scope)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 5.8, "exterieur": 1.1 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Kawa 1.10 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "You, Xiaodi vs Lu, Jia-Jing", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "06:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — You 1.23 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.23, "exterieur": 3.7 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "You 1.23 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Pieri, Jessica vs Wei, Sijia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "06:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match déjà commencé. Pieri ML 1.59, edge estimé 3.6% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.59, "exterieur": 2.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Match en cours. Edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Ibragimova, Alevtina vs Shi, Han", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "07:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match déjà commencé. ML Ibragimova 1.53 / Shi 2.34 — edge Ibragimova estimé 3.8% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.53, "exterieur": 2.34 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Match en cours. Edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Aksu, Ayla vs Ovcharenko, Ekaterina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Aksu 1.06 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.06, "exterieur": 7.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Aksu 1.06 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah vs Tagger, Lilli", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Tagger 1.24 < 1.30. Rakotomanga 3.65 : trop long, hors scope cote > 3.50", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 3.65, "exterieur": 1.24 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Tagger 1.24 < 1.30. Rakotomanga > 3.50.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Falkowska, Weronika vs Monnot, Amandine", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge ML Monnot 3.8% < 7%. WTA 125K : CONFIANCE interdit (niveau Challenger). Monnot locale mais écart de cote insuffisant", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.46, "exterieur": 1.48 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Monnot française à domicile Saint-Malo. p_finale 0.714, edge 3.8% sous seuil 7%. CONFIANCE interdit 125K.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Nguyen Tan, Lucie vs Kabbaj, Yasmine", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Coin flip (1.91/1.80) — aucun edge identifiable après shrinkage. p_finale Nguyen Tan 0.527, edge 1.0% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.91, "exterieur": 1.8 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Match quasiment coin flip. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Belgraver, Julie vs Bartashevich, Yara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge ML Belgraver 3.2% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K = niveau Challenger)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.4, "exterieur": 2.74 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Belgraver (1.40) p_finale 0.746, edge 3.2%. Insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Valentova, Tereza vs Stephens, Sloane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Valentova 1.28 < 1.30. Stephens 3.35 trop long", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.28, "exterieur": 3.35 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Valentova 1.28 < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Uchijima, Moyuka vs Efremova, Ksenia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Uchijima 1.18 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.18, "exterieur": 4.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Uchijima 1.18 < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Sun, Lulu vs Yuan, Yue", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Coin flip (1.91/1.80) — aucun edge net après shrinkage. p_finale Sun 0.527, edge 0.9% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.91, "exterieur": 1.8 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Quasi coin flip. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Burel, Clara vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "12:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Burel ML 2.36 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). Golubic 1.52 : p_finale 0.694 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE interdit 125K + seuil non atteint)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.36, "exterieur": 1.52 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Burel outsider en zone 2.00-2.50. Golubic sous les seuils CONFIANCE.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Ruud, Casper", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "25%", "victoire_exterieur": "75%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.76, "exterieur": 1.4 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Ruud (tête de série, CHAMPION EN TITRE à Madrid) vs Fokina (Espagnol à domicile, dangereux sur terre). Ruud a dominé Munar en R2 (pratiquement 6-1 6-1). H2H 3-2 pour Ruud. p_finale 0.739 ≥ 0.72, edge 2.5% > 2%, chaos 1 (avantage domicile Fokina). CONFIANCE_STD validé.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro", "joueur_2": "Ruud, Casper", "surface": "clay", "stats": { "classement_atp": [ "[NON VERIFIE]", "[NON VERIFIE]" ], "h2h": "3-2 pour Ruud", "forme_recente": [ "V en R2 Madrid (2 sets)", "V vs Munar R2 Madrid (domination 6-1 6-1)" ], "contexte": "Ruud defending champion Madrid. Fokina joue à domicile." } } }, { "match": "Tsitsipas, Stefanos vs Merida, Daniel", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "75%", "victoire_exterieur": "25%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.46, "exterieur": 2.58 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Tsitsipas (career clay 193-63, soit 75.4%) vs Merida (rangé 102, 11-3 clay 2026 mais sur Challengers). Tsitsipas a battu Bublik 6-2 7-5 en R2 après avoir survécu en R1. Avantage qualité clair à ce niveau M1000. Merida excellent sur terre mais la différence de niveau à ce stade reste significative. p_finale 0.7305 ≥ 0.72, edge 4.6% > 2%. CONFIANCE_STD.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Tsitsipas, Stefanos", "joueur_2": "Merida, Daniel", "surface": "clay", "stats": { "classement_atp": [ "top 25", "102" ], "bilan_saison_clay": [ "2-2 avant Madrid, +2V ici", "11-3 2026" ], "h2h": "0-0 (première rencontre)", "contexte": "Tsitsipas 193-63 clay all-time (75.4%). Merida WC/qualifier en forme mais niveau M1000 différent." } } }, { "match": "Medvedev, Daniil vs Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Medvedev 1.31 (> 1.30, éligible) mais edge quasi nul sur terre (Medvedev historiquement moins dominant sur clay). p_finale 0.761, edge -0.2% négatif (modèle clay correctement priced par marché)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "76%", "victoire_exterieur": "24%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.31, "exterieur": 3.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Medvedev à 1.31 sur terre battue. Sa probabilité réelle estimée ≈ 76% est déjà capturée par le marché (76.3%). Edge nul ou négatif. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Cerundolo, Francisco vs Darderi, Luciano", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Modèle externe donne Cerundolo 65%, marché 69.4% — edge négatif après shrinkage. p_finale 0.670, edge -2.4%. Match entre joueurs de niveau comparable (rangés 20 et 22).", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "65%", "victoire_exterieur": "35%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.44, "exterieur": 2.62 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Cerundolo (20e, 11-4 clay, gagnant Buenos Aires vs Darderi 6-4 6-2) vs Darderi (22e, 10-5 clay). Match quasiment 50/50 au niveau réel. Marché surestime Cerundolo. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Cerundolo, Francisco", "joueur_2": "Darderi, Luciano", "surface": "clay", "stats": { "classement_atp": [ 20, 22 ], "bilan_saison_clay": [ "11-4", "10-5" ], "h2h": "3-2 pour Cerundolo (3-2 sur clay)", "contexte": "Cerundolo a battu Darderi 6-4 6-2 à Buenos Aires récemment. Darderi a battu Juan Manuel Cerundolo (autre) en R2." } } }, { "match": "Blockx, Alexander vs Auger-Aliassime, Felix", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "14:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Modèle externe donne FAA 67%, marché 73% (cote 1.37) — edge négatif. p_finale 0.709, edge -2.1%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "34%", "victoire_exterieur": "67%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.9, "exterieur": 1.37 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "FAA 3e tête de série, excellente forme clay 2026 (titre Montpellier, finale Rotterdam, QF Monte Carlo). Mais modèle donne 67% alors que marché prise FAA à 73%. Edge négatif. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel vs Cobolli, Flavio", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "15:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Vallejo 96e ATP (29-7 en 2026, bat Dimitrov et Tien!) vs Cobolli 13e ATP — match bien plus équilibré que cotes initialement perçues. p_finale Cobolli 0.623, edge -5.3% négatif", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "40%", "victoire_exterieur": "60%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.5, "exterieur": 1.48 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "ALERTE : Vallejo (96e, 29-7 en 2026) a battu Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4 et Learner Tien 6-4 6-3 pour arriver en R3. Match très compétitif malgré écart de ranking. Edge pour Cobolli négatif après shrinkage. Match imprenable.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel", "joueur_2": "Cobolli, Flavio", "surface": "clay", "stats": { "classement_atp": [ 96, 13 ], "bilan_saison": [ "29-7 en 2026", "15-9 en 2026" ], "contexte": "Vallejo a battu Dimitrov (top 20) et Tien (17e tête série). Cobolli a perdu 1er set vs Carabelli en R2." } } }, { "match": "Atmane, Terence vs Zverev, Alexander", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Zverev 1.15 < 1.30. Atmane 4.80 > 3.50 hors scope", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 4.8, "exterieur": 1.15 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Zverev 1.15 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Mensik, Jakub", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "18:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Mensik ML 1.61 : p_finale estimée 0.655 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge 3.4% < 7%. Mensik moins dominant sur terre que dur.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "38%", "victoire_exterieur": "62%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.2, "exterieur": 1.61 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Mensik favori à 1.61. p_finale 0.655 insuffisant pour CONFIANCE. Edge VALUE 3.4% < 7%. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Li, Ann vs Fernandez, Leylah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Fernandez ML 1.54 : p_finale 0.706 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge VALUE 5.7% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "29%", "victoire_exterieur": "71%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.34, "exterieur": 1.54 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Fernandez favorite, bonne forme (battu Jovic). p_finale 0.706, sous le seuil CONFIANCE de 0.72. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bencic, Belinda vs Baptiste, Hailey", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Modèle externe Bencic 69%, marché 73.5% (cote 1.36) — edge négatif. Baptiste a battu Paolini 7-5 6-3. Les deux n'ont pas cédé un set dans ce tournoi. Marché surestime Bencic.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "69%", "victoire_exterieur": "31%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.36, "exterieur": 2.92 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Bencic (17-6, 4-1 clay 2026) vs Baptiste (14-10, 3-2 clay, bat Paolini!). Modèle donne 69% < marché 73.5%. Edge négatif (-4.5%). Baptiste est dans une belle dynamique. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Bencic, Belinda", "joueur_2": "Baptiste, Hailey", "surface": "clay", "stats": { "bilan_saison": [ "17-6, 4-1 clay", "14-10, 3-2 clay" ], "sets_perdus_tournoi": [ "0", "0" ], "victoires_notables_tournoi": [ "vs Shnaider 6-2 7-6", "vs Paolini 7-5 6-3 (upset!)" ] } } }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Pliskova, Karolina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Pliskova 1.58 : p_finale 0.680 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge 4.7% < 7%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.26, "exterieur": 1.58 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pliskova favorite, edge insuffisant. p_finale 0.680 < 0.72.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Osaka, Naomi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Sabalenka 1.12 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.12, "exterieur": 5.4 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Sabalenka 1.12 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Bondar, Anna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Andreeva 1.20 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.2, "exterieur": 4.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Andreeva 1.20 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Noskova, Linda vs Gauff, Coco", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "14:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Gauff ML 1.55 : modèle externe 58% vs marché 64.5% — edge négatif. p_finale 0.614, edge -3.1%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.32, "exterieur": 1.55 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Gauff a battu Cirstea en 3 sets (pas dominante). Noskova a avancé sans jouer (Samsonova forfait). Modèle 58% < marché 64.5%. Edge négatif. NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs McNally, Caty", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Potapova, Anastasia vs Rybakina, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "19:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Rybakina 1.15 < 1.30. Potapova 4.80 trop long", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 4.8, "exterieur": 1.15 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Rybakina 1.15 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Werner, Caroline vs Roura Llaverias, Ruth", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "09:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Werner 1.23 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.23, "exterieur": 3.7 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Werner 1.23 < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Martinez Cirez, Carlota vs Kazionova, Ekaterina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Martinez Cirez 1.59 : edge 4.3% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.59, "exterieur": 2.2 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Vazquez Valles, Martina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "10:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Bosio 1.03 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.03, "exterieur": 9.4 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Bosio 1.03 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Pigossi, Laura vs Teixido Garcia, Aran", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "11:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Pigossi 1.60 : edge 3.9% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.6, "exterieur": 2.18 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Stefanini, Lucrezia vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Korpatsch 1.30 exactement (limite absolue NO BET 1). Kelly quasi nul à cette cote. Stefanini 3.20 trop long", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 3.2, "exterieur": 1.3 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Korpatsch exactement 1.30 : Kelly nul, non rentable.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Haddad Maia, Beatriz vs Lazaro Garcia, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "12:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Haddad Maia 2.46 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). Lazaro Garcia 1.48 : edge 3.8% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.46, "exterieur": 1.48 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Aucun marché viable.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Selekhmeteva, Oksana vs Sramkova, Rebecca", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Quasi coin flip (1.73/1.99) — edge Selekhmeteva 2.9% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.73, "exterieur": 1.99 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant sur les deux sélections.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bassols Ribera, Marina vs Zakharova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Zakharova 1.54 : edge 5.7% < 7%. Bassols Ribera 2.32 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.32, "exterieur": 1.54 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Hunter, Storm", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Krueger 1.45 : p_finale 0.732, edge 4.2% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K = Challenger)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.45, "exterieur": 2.56 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant. CONFIANCE interdit niveau 125K.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Andrey Chepelev vs Daniel Bagnolini", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ITF Men Santa Margherita di Pula", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Chepelev 1.06 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.06, "exterieur": 6.8 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Chepelev 1.06 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Lorenzo Beraldo vs Nikolai Barsukov", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ITF Men Santa Margherita di Pula", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Barsukov 1.27 < 1.30. Beraldo 3.30 trop long", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 3.3, "exterieur": 1.27 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Barsukov 1.27 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Las Vegas Aces vs Japan", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles. Match suspect (Aces = équipe WNBA, Japan = équipe nationale)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Données incorrectes / match hors scope.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "01:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles. Match NBA playoff possible non côté sur l'API", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": {}, "cote_indicative": {}, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "DQ-C : pas de cotes sur l'API pour ce match.", "stats_comparatives": null } ], "paris": [ { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "ligue_canonique": "ATP_M1000", "match": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Ruud, Casper", "heure": "09:00", "marche": "Match Winner", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Ruud, Casper", "cote": 1.4, "cote_plancher": 1.39, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=73.93%, f_full=8.75%, qk=2.19%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=10.95 EUR → 1u (CONFIANCE fixe)", "edge_estime": "+2.5%", "edge_num": 0.025, "probabilite_estimee": "75%", "p_estimee": 0.75, "probabilite_marche": "71.4%", "probabilite_finale": "73.9%", "p_finale_num": 0.739, "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% → 0.709, edge nul (-0.5%) : pari fragile mais CONFIANCE mise fixe 1u. Test cote -0.05 (1.35) : p_marche 0.741, edge encore négatif → sens border. Accepté en CONFIANCE pur (defending champion + H2H 3-2 + domination R2).", "raisonnement": "Ruud champion en titre à Madrid 2026, a dominé Munar en R2 (6-1 6-1), H2H 3-2 vs Fokina. Fokina joue à domicile (avantage) mais Ruud est objectivement au-dessus. p_finale 0.739 ≥ 0.72. CONFIANCE_STD validé malgré edge faible (discipline du moteur CONFIANCE).", "moteur": "CONFIANCE", "statut_v3": "CONFIANCE_STD", "protocol_version": "3.0", "chaos": 1, "tier": "tier1" }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "ligue_canonique": "ATP_M1000", "match": "Tsitsipas, Stefanos vs Merida, Daniel", "heure": "10:10", "marche": "Match Winner", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Tsitsipas, Stefanos", "cote": 1.46, "cote_plancher": 1.41, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=73.05%, f_full=11.65%, qk=2.91%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=14.55 EUR → 1.5u → 1u (CONFIANCE fixe)", "edge_estime": "+4.6%", "edge_num": 0.046, "probabilite_estimee": "75%", "p_estimee": 0.75, "probabilite_marche": "68.5%", "probabilite_finale": "73.1%", "p_finale_num": 0.731, "robustesse": "Si p_finale -3% → 0.701, edge 1.6% (reste positif mais sous seuil VALUE 7%). Test cote +0.05 (1.51) : p_marche 0.662, edge 6.9% → encore viable. Tsitsipas career clay 75.4% (193-63) justifie l'estimation contre un joueur de rang 102 à ce niveau M1000.", "raisonnement": "Tsitsipas (career clay 193-63 = 75.4%) vs Merida 102e ATP (11-3 clay 2026 mais sur Challengers). Tsitsipas a battu Bublik 6-2 7-5 en R2 et monte en puissance. La différence de niveau à ce stade M1000 est réelle. p_finale 0.731 ≥ 0.72, edge 4.6% ≥ 2%. CONFIANCE_STD.", "moteur": "CONFIANCE", "statut_v3": "CONFIANCE_STD", "protocol_version": "3.0", "chaos": 1, "tier": "tier1" } ], "no_bet": [ { "match": "Manchester United vs Brentford FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Premier League", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC 1X=1.30 (limite exacte, Kelly quasi nul) — edge DC 3.6% < 7%, OU 4.8% < 6%, BTTS 4.8% < 6%", "raisonnement": "MU 3e sous Carrick (8V en 12 matchs), reçoit Brentford 9e (5 nuls consécutifs). DC 1X=1.30 trop proche du plancher NO BET 1. Edge insuffisant sur tous marchés malgré avantage domicile solide." }, { "match": "Espanyol Barcelona vs Levante UD", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC 1X=1.29 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — DC X2 edge 3.9% < 7%, OU2.5 coin flip, edge insuffisant sur tous marchés", "raisonnement": "Match La Liga serré entre Espanyol et Levante. DC 1X interdit (1.29 < 1.30). Aucun marché ne génère l'edge requis après shrinkage." }, { "match": "Cagliari Calcio vs Atalanta BC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC X2=1.22 < 1.30 NO BET 1, DC 12=1.28 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — OU Over 1.83 edge 6.5% mais test robustesse échoue (-3% sous seuil 6%), Atalanta fatigue post-Coppa Italia", "raisonnement": "Cagliari 16e (33 pts) sans victoire en 10 matchs, reçoit Atalanta 7e (poussant pour Europe) qui vient de perdre la Coppa aux tirs au but vs Lazio. Atalanta gagne 5/6 déplacements ici. OU Over 1.83 borderline (edge 6.5%) mais test robustesse fragile : si p_finale -3% l'edge tombe sous le seuil. NO BET." }, { "match": "Lazio Rome vs Udinese Calcio", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "18:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC 1X=1.27 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — OU Under edge 5.4% < 6%, BTTS No edge 3.9% < 6%", "raisonnement": "Lazio (9e) survole après victoire Coppa Italia vs Atalanta (demi-finale). Udinese a gagné 2-0 vs Genoa et 3-0 vs Milan en déplacement. Udinese sans Davis (top scorer). Edge OU Under 5.4% insuffisant (seuil 6%). Udinese contre-attaque bien malgré absence Davis. NO BET." }, { "match": "Gil Vicente Barcelos vs Casa Pia Lisbon", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC 1X=1.17 < 1.30 NO BET 1, DC 12=1.27 < 1.30 NO BET 1 — DC X2=2.26 (zone 2.00-2.50) edge 6.8% < 9% requis (NO BET 2) — ligue tier2", "raisonnement": "Liga Portugal tier2. DC 1X et 12 sous le seuil NO BET 1. DC X2 dans la zone 2.00-2.50 : edge 6.8% bien inférieur aux 9% requis. NO BET." }, { "match": "Wang, Jiaqi vs Panshina, Varvara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles." }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Guo, Meiqi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles." }, { "match": "Zolotareva, Rada vs Wei, Zhang-Qian", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "03:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles." }, { "match": "Zhu, Amy vs Yuan, Chengyiyi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "04:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles." }, { "match": "Zheng, Wushuang vs MA, Yexin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "04:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes disponibles." }, { "match": "Mikulskyte, Justina vs Lansere, Sofya", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "05:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Match déjà commencé lors de la collecte (05:10 UTC < 05:09 collecte). ML Mikulskyte 2.16 / Lansere 1.62 — p_marche Lansere 0.617, p_finale estimée 0.649, edge 3.2% < 7% de toute façon", "raisonnement": "Match en cours. WTA 125K, edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Zhao, Carol vs Kawa, Katarzyna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "05:50", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Kawa 1.10 < 1.30. Zhao ML 5.80 trop long (> 3.50 hors scope)", "raisonnement": "Kawa 1.10 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "You, Xiaodi vs Lu, Jia-Jing", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "06:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — You 1.23 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "You 1.23 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Pieri, Jessica vs Wei, Sijia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "06:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Match déjà commencé. Pieri ML 1.59, edge estimé 3.6% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Match en cours. Edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Ibragimova, Alevtina vs Shi, Han", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Huzhou", "heure": "07:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Match déjà commencé. ML Ibragimova 1.53 / Shi 2.34 — edge Ibragimova estimé 3.8% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Match en cours. Edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Aksu, Ayla vs Ovcharenko, Ekaterina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Aksu 1.06 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Aksu 1.06 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah vs Tagger, Lilli", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Tagger 1.24 < 1.30. Rakotomanga 3.65 : trop long, hors scope cote > 3.50", "raisonnement": "Tagger 1.24 < 1.30. Rakotomanga > 3.50." }, { "match": "Falkowska, Weronika vs Monnot, Amandine", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edge ML Monnot 3.8% < 7%. WTA 125K : CONFIANCE interdit (niveau Challenger). Monnot locale mais écart de cote insuffisant", "raisonnement": "Monnot française à domicile Saint-Malo. p_finale 0.714, edge 3.8% sous seuil 7%. CONFIANCE interdit 125K." }, { "match": "Nguyen Tan, Lucie vs Kabbaj, Yasmine", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Coin flip (1.91/1.80) — aucun edge identifiable après shrinkage. p_finale Nguyen Tan 0.527, edge 1.0% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Match quasiment coin flip. NO BET." }, { "match": "Belgraver, Julie vs Bartashevich, Yara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edge ML Belgraver 3.2% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K = niveau Challenger)", "raisonnement": "Belgraver (1.40) p_finale 0.746, edge 3.2%. Insuffisant." }, { "match": "Valentova, Tereza vs Stephens, Sloane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Valentova 1.28 < 1.30. Stephens 3.35 trop long", "raisonnement": "Valentova 1.28 < 1.30." }, { "match": "Uchijima, Moyuka vs Efremova, Ksenia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Uchijima 1.18 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Uchijima 1.18 < 1.30." }, { "match": "Sun, Lulu vs Yuan, Yue", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Coin flip (1.91/1.80) — aucun edge net après shrinkage. p_finale Sun 0.527, edge 0.9% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Quasi coin flip. NO BET." }, { "match": "Burel, Clara vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Saint-Malo", "heure": "12:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Burel ML 2.36 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). Golubic 1.52 : p_finale 0.694 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE interdit 125K + seuil non atteint)", "raisonnement": "Burel outsider en zone 2.00-2.50. Golubic sous les seuils CONFIANCE." }, { "match": "Medvedev, Daniil vs Budkov Kjaer, Nicolai", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Medvedev 1.31 (> 1.30, éligible) mais edge quasi nul sur terre (Medvedev historiquement moins dominant sur clay). p_finale 0.761, edge -0.2% négatif (modèle clay correctement priced par marché)", "raisonnement": "Medvedev à 1.31 sur terre battue. Sa probabilité réelle estimée ≈ 76% est déjà capturée par le marché (76.3%). Edge nul ou négatif. NO BET." }, { "match": "Cerundolo, Francisco vs Darderi, Luciano", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Modèle externe donne Cerundolo 65%, marché 69.4% — edge négatif après shrinkage. p_finale 0.670, edge -2.4%. Match entre joueurs de niveau comparable (rangés 20 et 22).", "raisonnement": "Cerundolo (20e, 11-4 clay, gagnant Buenos Aires vs Darderi 6-4 6-2) vs Darderi (22e, 10-5 clay). Match quasiment 50/50 au niveau réel. Marché surestime Cerundolo. NO BET." }, { "match": "Blockx, Alexander vs Auger-Aliassime, Felix", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "14:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Modèle externe donne FAA 67%, marché 73% (cote 1.37) — edge négatif. p_finale 0.709, edge -2.1%", "raisonnement": "FAA 3e tête de série, excellente forme clay 2026 (titre Montpellier, finale Rotterdam, QF Monte Carlo). Mais modèle donne 67% alors que marché prise FAA à 73%. Edge négatif. NO BET." }, { "match": "Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel vs Cobolli, Flavio", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "15:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Vallejo 96e ATP (29-7 en 2026, bat Dimitrov et Tien!) vs Cobolli 13e ATP — match bien plus équilibré que cotes initialement perçues. p_finale Cobolli 0.623, edge -5.3% négatif", "raisonnement": "ALERTE : Vallejo (96e, 29-7 en 2026) a battu Grigor Dimitrov 6-4 6-4 et Learner Tien 6-4 6-3 pour arriver en R3. Match très compétitif malgré écart de ranking. Edge pour Cobolli négatif après shrinkage. Match imprenable." }, { "match": "Atmane, Terence vs Zverev, Alexander", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Zverev 1.15 < 1.30. Atmane 4.80 > 3.50 hors scope", "raisonnement": "Zverev 1.15 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Mensik, Jakub", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "18:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Mensik ML 1.61 : p_finale estimée 0.655 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge 3.4% < 7%. Mensik moins dominant sur terre que dur.", "raisonnement": "Mensik favori à 1.61. p_finale 0.655 insuffisant pour CONFIANCE. Edge VALUE 3.4% < 7%. NO BET." }, { "match": "Li, Ann vs Fernandez, Leylah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Fernandez ML 1.54 : p_finale 0.706 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge VALUE 5.7% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Fernandez favorite, bonne forme (battu Jovic). p_finale 0.706, sous le seuil CONFIANCE de 0.72. NO BET." }, { "match": "Bencic, Belinda vs Baptiste, Hailey", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Modèle externe Bencic 69%, marché 73.5% (cote 1.36) — edge négatif. Baptiste a battu Paolini 7-5 6-3. Les deux n'ont pas cédé un set dans ce tournoi. Marché surestime Bencic.", "raisonnement": "Bencic (17-6, 4-1 clay 2026) vs Baptiste (14-10, 3-2 clay, bat Paolini!). Modèle donne 69% < marché 73.5%. Edge négatif (-4.5%). Baptiste est dans une belle dynamique. NO BET." }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Pliskova, Karolina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Pliskova 1.58 : p_finale 0.680 < 0.72 (CONFIANCE non atteint). Edge 4.7% < 7%", "raisonnement": "Pliskova favorite, edge insuffisant. p_finale 0.680 < 0.72." }, { "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Osaka, Naomi", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Sabalenka 1.12 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Sabalenka 1.12 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Bondar, Anna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Andreeva 1.20 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Andreeva 1.20 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Noskova, Linda vs Gauff, Coco", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "14:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Gauff ML 1.55 : modèle externe 58% vs marché 64.5% — edge négatif. p_finale 0.614, edge -3.1%", "raisonnement": "Gauff a battu Cirstea en 3 sets (pas dominante). Noskova a avancé sans jouer (Samsonova forfait). Modèle 58% < marché 64.5%. Edge négatif. NO BET." }, { "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs McNally, Caty", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes." }, { "match": "Potapova, Anastasia vs Rybakina, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Madrid Open 2026", "heure": "19:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Rybakina 1.15 < 1.30. Potapova 4.80 trop long", "raisonnement": "Rybakina 1.15 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Werner, Caroline vs Roura Llaverias, Ruth", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "09:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Werner 1.23 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Werner 1.23 < 1.30." }, { "match": "Martinez Cirez, Carlota vs Kazionova, Ekaterina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Martinez Cirez 1.59 : edge 4.3% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K)", "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Vazquez Valles, Martina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "10:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Bosio 1.03 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Bosio 1.03 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Pigossi, Laura vs Teixido Garcia, Aran", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "11:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Pigossi 1.60 : edge 3.9% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K)", "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Stefanini, Lucrezia vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Korpatsch 1.30 exactement (limite absolue NO BET 1). Kelly quasi nul à cette cote. Stefanini 3.20 trop long", "raisonnement": "Korpatsch exactement 1.30 : Kelly nul, non rentable." }, { "match": "Haddad Maia, Beatriz vs Lazaro Garcia, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "12:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Haddad Maia 2.46 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). Lazaro Garcia 1.48 : edge 3.8% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "raisonnement": "Aucun marché viable." }, { "match": "Selekhmeteva, Oksana vs Sramkova, Rebecca", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Quasi coin flip (1.73/1.99) — edge Selekhmeteva 2.9% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant sur les deux sélections." }, { "match": "Bassols Ribera, Marina vs Zakharova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Zakharova 1.54 : edge 5.7% < 7%. Bassols Ribera 2.32 (zone 2.00-2.50, edge 9% requis). CONFIANCE interdit (125K)", "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant." }, { "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Hunter, Storm", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K La Bisbal D Emporda", "heure": "16:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Krueger 1.45 : p_finale 0.732, edge 4.2% < 7%. CONFIANCE interdit (WTA 125K = Challenger)", "raisonnement": "Edge insuffisant. CONFIANCE interdit niveau 125K." }, { "match": "Andrey Chepelev vs Daniel Bagnolini", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ITF Men Santa Margherita di Pula", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Chepelev 1.06 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Chepelev 1.06 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Lorenzo Beraldo vs Nikolai Barsukov", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ITF Men Santa Margherita di Pula", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Barsukov 1.27 < 1.30. Beraldo 3.30 trop long", "raisonnement": "Barsukov 1.27 < 1.30 : NO BET absolu." }, { "match": "Las Vegas Aces vs Japan", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles. Match suspect (Aces = équipe WNBA, Japan = équipe nationale)", "raisonnement": "Données incorrectes / match hors scope." }, { "match": "Houston Rockets vs Los Angeles Lakers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "01:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles. Match NBA playoff possible non côté sur l'API", "raisonnement": "DQ-C : pas de cotes sur l'API pour ce match." } ], "resume": { "total_paris": 2, "exposition_totale_euros": 20, "exposition_totale_unites": "2u", "quota_atteint": "2/8", "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": { "profit_net_euros": 8.6, "ROI_potentiel": "+43.0%" } } }