{
  "date": "2026-05-09",
  "generated": "2026-05-09T07:17:55",
  "model_version": "3.1",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Liverpool FC vs Chelsea FC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "heure": "11:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "37%",
        "nul": "28%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "35%",
        "double_chance_X2": "63%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 2.0,
        "nul": 3.85,
        "exterieur": 3.55
      },
      "total_estime": "2.5 buts",
      "raisonnement": "Liverpool 1er mais 6 absences cles confirmees (Salah Out thigh, Ekitike Out Achilles, Endo Out, Bajcetic Out, Bradley Out, Leoni Out) + 3 Q (Alisson, Isak, Mamardashvili). Forme DLDLW decevante. Chelsea 4e en forme WWLWW excellente. Le marche surevalue Liverpool a domicile.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "football",
        "equipe_1": "Liverpool",
        "equipe_2": "Chelsea",
        "stats": {
          "position_classement": [
            1,
            4
          ],
          "forme_5_derniers": [
            "DLDLW",
            "WWLWW"
          ],
          "absences_cles": [
            "Salah, Ekitike, Endo, Bajcetic, Bradley, Leoni Out + Alisson/Isak/Mamardashvili Q",
            "Mudryk, Sanchez, Derry Out + Garnacho/Gittens/Neto Q"
          ]
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Paolini, Jasmine vs Mertens, Elise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "eleve",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "62%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "38%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 2.13,
        "exterieur": 1.75
      },
      "total_estime": "match en 2-3 sets",
      "raisonnement": "Paolini top-10 italienne a domicile a Rome (finaliste 2024). Mertens top-30 belge solide mais moins explosive sur clay. Edge value clair en faveur de Paolini.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Jasmine Paolini",
        "joueur_2": "Elise Mertens",
        "surface": "terre battue (clay)",
        "h2h": "Voir matchstat.com / tennistonic.com pour H2H"
      }
    },
    {
      "match": "Oliynykova, Oleksandra vs Noskova, Linda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance": "moyen",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_domicile": "18%",
        "victoire_exterieur": "82%"
      },
      "cote_indicative": {
        "domicile": 3.65,
        "exterieur": 1.31
      },
      "total_estime": "match en 2 sets probables",
      "raisonnement": "Linda Noskova (top-30 tcheque, 21 ans, demi-finaliste Roland-Garros 2024) face a Oksana Oliynykova WC. Ecart structurel >150 places, Noskova en pleine progression sur clay.",
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "joueur_1": "Oksana Oliynykova",
        "joueur_2": "Linda Noskova",
        "surface": "terre battue (clay)",
        "h2h": "Aucun H2H significatif (premiere rencontre probable)"
      }
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_1000",
      "match": "Oliynykova, Oleksandra vs Noskova, Linda",
      "heure": "?",
      "marche": "Match Winner (ML)",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Linda Noskova",
      "cote": 1.31,
      "cote_plancher": 1.3,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 15,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=82.4%, mise fixe CONFIANCE_HIGH 1.5u",
      "edge_estime": "+6.1%",
      "edge_num": 0.061,
      "probabilite_estimee": "85%",
      "p_estimee": 0.85,
      "probabilite_marche": "76.3%",
      "probabilite_finale": "82.4%",
      "p_finale_num": 0.824,
      "robustesse": "Stable: meme avec p_estimee surevaluee de 3pts, edge reste >2%. Mouvement de cote +-0.05 ne change pas la decision.",
      "raisonnement": "Linda Noskova (top-30 tcheque, 21 ans, demi-finaliste Roland-Garros 2024) face a Oksana Oliynykova (#200+, wild-card sur clay). Ecart de classement majeur (>150 places), Noskova en pleine progression sur clay (terre battue est sa surface preferee). Aucune raison de croire a une upset: difference de niveau structurelle.",
      "moteur": "CONFIANCE",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANCE_HIGH",
      "protocol_version": "3.1",
      "chaos": 0,
      "tier": "tier1"
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_1000",
      "match": "Paolini, Jasmine vs Mertens, Elise",
      "heure": "?",
      "marche": "Match Winner (ML)",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Jasmine Paolini",
      "cote": 2.13,
      "cote_plancher": 1.9,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 20,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=57.5%, f_full=19.9%, qk=4.98%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=24.9 EUR -> 2u (plafond)",
      "edge_estime": "+10.6%",
      "edge_num": 0.106,
      "probabilite_estimee": "62%",
      "p_estimee": 0.62,
      "probabilite_marche": "46.9%",
      "probabilite_finale": "57.5%",
      "p_finale_num": 0.575,
      "robustesse": "Robuste: p_estimee surevaluee 3pts donne encore edge >7%. Cote 2.13 large marge avant plancher 1.90.",
      "raisonnement": "Paolini (top-10 italienne, finaliste Roland-Garros et Wimbledon 2024) joue a domicile a Rome ou elle a atteint la finale en 2024. Mertens (top-30 belge, doublestar) plus reguliere mais moins explosive sur clay. Le marche surevalue Mertens (cote 1.75 pour la 30e mondiale vs italienne top-10 a domicile). Edge value clair en faveur de Paolini.",
      "moteur": "VALUE",
      "statut_v3": "VALUE_SAFE",
      "protocol_version": "3.1",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    },
    {
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "ligue_canonique": "PL",
      "match": "Liverpool FC vs Chelsea FC",
      "heure": "11:30",
      "marche": "Double Chance",
      "marche_canonique": "DC",
      "selection": "Chelsea ou Match Nul (X2)",
      "cote": 1.83,
      "cote_plancher": 1.8,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 15,
      "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=60.5%, f_full=12.9%, qk=3.2%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=16 EUR -> 1.5u",
      "edge_estime": "+5.9%",
      "edge_num": 0.059,
      "probabilite_estimee": "63%",
      "p_estimee": 0.63,
      "probabilite_marche": "54.6%",
      "probabilite_finale": "60.5%",
      "p_finale_num": 0.605,
      "robustesse": "Sensible aux compos finales: si Salah/Isak/Alisson reviennent surprise, edge reduit. Mais 6 absences certaines Liverpool + forme DLDLW vs Chelsea WWLWW deja prises en compte.",
      "raisonnement": "Liverpool (1er) avec 6 titulaires absents confirmes (Salah Out thigh, Ekitike Out Achilles, Endo Out, Bajcetic Out, Bradley Out, Leoni Out) et 3 questionables cles (Alisson, Isak, Mamardashvili). Forme recente decevante DLDLW. Chelsea (4e) en forme excellente WWLWW, blessures plus legeres. Le marche surevalue Liverpool a 50% car position 1 / facteur domicile. Avec rotation forcee Liverpool, X2 a 1.83 offre value sur scenario probable d un nul ou victoire Chelsea.",
      "moteur": "VALUE",
      "statut_v3": "VALUE_LEAN",
      "protocol_version": "3.1",
      "chaos": 1,
      "tier": "tier1"
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Brighton & Hove Albion vs Wolverhampton Wanderers",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — toutes les cotes pertinentes (DC 1X 1.07, DC 12 1.13, ML home 1.27) inferieures au seuil 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Brighton ultra-favori avec cotes structurellement <1.30 sur les marches de protection. Aucune value possible."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fulham FC vs AFC Bournemouth",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC X2 1.50 edge -1.2%, DC 1X 1.52 edge -2.7%",
      "raisonnement": "Match milieu de tableau equilibre, marge marche correcte, aucun edge identifiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sunderland AFC vs Manchester United",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DC X2 1.28 < 1.30, DC 12 1.30 limite + edge insuffisant",
      "raisonnement": "Promu vs Man United en mauvaise forme (15e, WLLLD), cotes dilutees, aucun edge clair."
    },
    {
      "match": "Manchester City vs Brentford FC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Premier League",
      "heure": "16:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC 1X 1.11 < 1.30, ML City 1.36 edge 3.1%, BTTS 1.61 edge -5%",
      "raisonnement": "City ultra-favori en forme WWDWW, cotes alignees avec realite, aucun marche n offre value."
    },
    {
      "match": "Elche CF vs Deportivo Alaves",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "La Liga",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC 1X 1.35 edge -0.8%",
      "raisonnement": "Match fin de saison enjeu faible, cotes alignees."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sevilla FC vs Espanyol Barcelona",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "La Liga",
      "heure": "14:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — DC 1X 1.28 < 1.30 + edge ML insuffisant",
      "raisonnement": "Sevilla 17e zone descente, motivation maintien mais cotes proteges."
    },
    {
      "match": "Atletico Madrid vs RC Celta de Vigo",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "La Liga",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Aucune cote recuperee dans data_brutes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Real Sociedad San Sebastian vs Real Betis Seville",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "La Liga",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC 1X 1.50 edge -0.5%, DC X2 1.52 edge non favorable",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre, cotes serres, aucun edge value."
    },
    {
      "match": "RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — DC 1X 1.09 < 1.30, ML Leipzig 1.31 edge -7.4%",
      "raisonnement": "Leipzig forme LDDLD mauvaise mais ultra-favori marche, aucun edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "VfB Stuttgart vs Bayer Leverkusen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC X2 1.66 edge 2.7%, DC 1X 1.43 edge -4.8%",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre Stuttgart en forme vs Leverkusen 2e en forme mitigee. Aucun edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "FC Augsburg vs Borussia Monchengladbach",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC 1X 1.33 edge -4.3%, donnees forme manquantes",
      "raisonnement": "Match milieu de tableau, donnees recents incompletes, cote tres efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "TSG Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — DC 1X 1.17 < 1.30, ML Bremen 5.60 hors scope outsider (>3.50)",
      "raisonnement": "Hoffenheim forme catastrophique LDDLL mais cotes blindees."
    },
    {
      "match": "VFL Wolfsburg vs Bayern Munich",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga",
      "heure": "16:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — DC X2 1.20 < 1.30, DC 12 1.20 < 1.30, ML Bayern 1.58 edge -0.9%",
      "raisonnement": "Bayern champion ultra-favori, cotes proteges en dessous du seuil."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cagliari Calcio vs Udinese Calcio",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — DC 1X 1.42 edge -1.7%, DC X2 1.50 edge -3.3%",
      "raisonnement": "Match milieu/bas Serie A, equilibre, aucun edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lazio Rome vs Inter Milano",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Match scudetto race mais aucune cote recuperee."
    },
    {
      "match": "US Lecce vs Juventus Turin",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Serie A",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Aucune cote recuperee."
    },
    {
      "match": "Willem II Tilburg vs RKC Waalwijk",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie",
      "heure": "14:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant tier 2 — DC 1X 1.33 edge -4.3%, seuil >=7% non atteint",
      "raisonnement": "Match relegation play-off Eredivisie, donnees volatiles, aucun edge tier 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "De Graafschap vs Almere City FC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Aucune cote recuperee."
    },
    {
      "match": "Middlesbrough FC vs Southampton FC",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Championship",
      "heure": "11:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant tier 2 — donnees Southampton incompletes, seuil >=7% non atteint",
      "raisonnement": "Tier 2 Championship, donnees forme/position Southampton manquantes -> DQ-B ne permet pas tier 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Kecmanovic, Miomir",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Rublev 1.39 edge 0.1%, marche aligne",
      "raisonnement": "Rublev top-15 favori serbe top-50 Kecmanovic, ecart correctement price."
    },
    {
      "match": "Moutet, Corentin vs Llamas Ruiz, Pablo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Moutet 1.74 edge 0.4%",
      "raisonnement": "Moutet creatif gaucher vs Llamas Ruiz #150 espagnol, cote correctement price."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tirante, Thiago Agustin vs Norrie, Cameron",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Norrie 1.62 edge 0.2%",
      "raisonnement": "Norrie favori contre Tirante clay player argentin #80, cote efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Machac, Tomas vs Medvedev, Daniil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Medvedev 1.64 edge -2.1%",
      "raisonnement": "Medvedev clay = surface faible vs Machac top-30 montant, p_marche surestime Medvedev."
    },
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Navone, Mariano",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — FAA 1.54 edge 0.8%",
      "raisonnement": "FAA favori vs Navone clay specialist argentin, marche correctement price."
    },
    {
      "match": "Etcheverry, Tomas Martin vs Bellucci, Mattia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Cote 1.33 limite + edge insuffisant 2%",
      "raisonnement": "Etcheverry clay player argentin vs Bellucci italien lower-ranked, p_marche correcte."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cilic, Marin vs Landaluce, Martin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Cilic 1.58 edge -0.9%, profil veteran physique fragile",
      "raisonnement": "Cilic 36 ans hors top-100, fragile physiquement, vs Landaluce jeune espagnol clay solide. Cote injustement haute pour Cilic."
    },
    {
      "match": "Garin, Cristian vs Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — ADF 1.63 edge -0.2%",
      "raisonnement": "Davidovich Fokina espagnol clay top-30 vs Garin chilien clay top-100, cote efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Basilashvili, Nikoloz vs Shelton, Ben",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Shelton 1.26 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Shelton top-15 favori, cote en dessous du seuil. Basilashvili a 4.00 trop outsider (>3.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Atmane, Terence",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Cote 1.34 limite + edge insuffisant 2.4%",
      "raisonnement": "Cobolli italien favori a domicile vs Atmane jeune francais, cote correctement price."
    },
    {
      "match": "Nakashima, Brandon vs Bautista Agut, Roberto",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Nakashima 1.52 edge 0.1%",
      "raisonnement": "Nakashima top-50 vs RBA 38 ans, cote efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Medjedovic, Hamad vs Fonseca, Joao",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Fonseca 1.52 edge 0.1%",
      "raisonnement": "Fonseca prodige bresilien favori vs Medjedovic serbe, cote efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tiafoe, Frances vs Buse, Ignacio",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Buse 1.58 edge -0.9%",
      "raisonnement": "Tiafoe medicore sur clay vs Buse clay specialist peruvien, cote 1.58 ne sous-evalue pas assez Tiafoe."
    },
    {
      "match": "Popyrin, Alexei vs Mensik, Jakub",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Mensik 1.38 edge 1.1%",
      "raisonnement": "Mensik top-30 montant vs Popyrin top-30 dur mais clay limite, cote correcte."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pellegrino, Andrea vs Fils, Arthur",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Fils 1.08 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Fils top-20 archi-favori vs Pellegrino italien #200+, cote en dessous du seuil."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Ofner, Sebastian",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - ATP Rome, Italy Men Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Sinner 1.01 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Sinner #1 mondial italien a Rome face a Ofner top-100, cote ridicule."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Sierra, Solana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Gauff 1.09 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Gauff top-3 mondial vs Sierra top-100, cote en dessous du seuil."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zheng, Qinwen vs Ostapenko, Jelena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge insuffisant — Zheng 1.48 edge -3.9%, Ostapenko clay specialist agressive",
      "raisonnement": "Zheng top-10 vs Ostapenko top-30 explosive sur clay, H2H favorable Ostapenko sur clay (Stuttgart 2024). Cote 1.48 surestime Zheng."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Cirstea, Sorana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Sabalenka 1.14 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Sabalenka #1/2 mondiale vs Cirstea, cote en dessous du seuil."
    },
    {
      "match": "Townsend, Taylor vs Jovic, Iva",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Jovic 1.70 edge 2.2%",
      "raisonnement": "Jovic jeune americaine talent vs Townsend doublestar limited en simple, cote ne sous-evalue pas assez Jovic."
    },
    {
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Andreeva, Mirra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Andreeva 1.03 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva top-10 prodige russe vs Golubic top-100, cote ridicule."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bencic, Belinda vs Kalinskaya, Anna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Bencic 1.35 edge -5.7%",
      "raisonnement": "Bencic en retour post-maternite vs Kalinskaya top-30 reguliere, p_marche surestime Bencic."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Maristany Zuleta de Reales, Guiomar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Istanbul, Turkiye Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — Vekic 1.28 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Vekic top-50 favori vs Maristany WC, cote sous le seuil."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tubello, Alice vs Timofeeva, Maria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Istanbul, Turkiye Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Timofeeva 1.57 edge 0.9%, ne respecte pas critere CONFIANCE WTA 125K (edge >=4%)",
      "raisonnement": "Timofeeva top-100 favori vs Tubello francaise top-200, cote efficient. Critere WTA 125K renforce non rempli."
    },
    {
      "match": "Yao, Xinxin vs You, Xiaodi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Jiujiang, China Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Aucune cote recuperee."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bai, Zhuoxuan vs Liang, En-Shuo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Jiujiang, China Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C — cotes Stake non disponibles",
      "raisonnement": "Aucune cote recuperee."
    },
    {
      "match": "WTA Rome 32 matchs R64 placeholders",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - WTA Rome, Italy Women Singles",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-C groupe — 32 matchs WTA Rome R64 sans noms ni cotes confirmes (R64P1...R64P64)",
      "raisonnement": "Tableau pas encore tire/affiche au moment de la collecte, joueurs en placeholders. Aucune analyse possible."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Cavs 1.58 edge 1.2%, pas de cote OU disponible exploitable",
      "raisonnement": "Game 3 East SF, Pistons menent 2-0 (G2 107-97). Cavs dos au mur a domicile mais p_estimee 0.65 alignee avec marche 0.633. Pas d edge value. Pas de pace data."
    },
    {
      "match": "Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — OKC 1.27 < 1.30, ML LAL 3.85 hors scope outsider (>3.50)",
      "raisonnement": "Game 3 West SF, OKC menent 2-0 dominateur. Doncic Out (LAL), Sorber + J. Williams Out (OKC). Cotes blindees."
    },
    {
      "match": "Philadelphia 76ers vs New York Knicks",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "19:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — 76ers 1.97 edge 3%, pas d edge OU exploitable sans pace data",
      "raisonnement": "Game 3 East SF, Knicks menent 2-0 (G1 137-98, G2 108-102). Match coin flip a 76ers domicile. Edge calcule 3% < seuil 5%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "23:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Edge ML insuffisant — Wolves 2.43 edge 2.7%, Spurs 1.54 edge -6.9%",
      "raisonnement": "Game 3 West SF, serie 1-1 (G2 Spurs 133-95 Wembanyama 19/15). Spurs momentum mais Wolves a domicile. Edge insuffisant 2 cotes."
    },
    {
      "match": "WNBA matches (9 matchs Storm/Valkyries/Fever/Wings/Aces/Mercury/Lynx/Dream/Sky/Sun/Mystics/Liberty/Sparks)",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "WNBA",
      "heure": "?",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Hors scope — WNBA non couvert par Doggy Analysis v3.1 (NBA uniquement)",
      "raisonnement": "Ligue WNBA hors scope du protocole, scope NBA exclusivement."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 3,
    "exposition_totale_euros": 50,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "5.0u",
    "quota_atteint": "3/8",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 39.7,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+79.4%"
    }
  }
}