{ "date": "2026-05-11", "generated": "2026-05-11T07:20:54", "model_version": "3.1", "analyses": [ { "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Tirante, Thiago Agustin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Cobolli": "74%", "victoire_Tirante": "26%", "set_Cobolli": "87%", "set_Tirante": "55%" }, "cote_indicative": { "Cobolli": 1.41, "Tirante": 2.9 }, "raisonnement": "Cobolli ATP ~32 italien à domicile Rome sur terre battue (sa meilleure surface). Tirante ATP ~85 argentin terrien solide mais cran inférieur. Skill gap + home advantage justifient CONFIANCE_STD.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Cobolli, Flavio", "joueur_2": "Tirante, Thiago Agustin", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "Pas de confrontation référencée" } }, { "match": "Mertens, Elise vs Andreeva, Mirra", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Mertens": "23%", "victoire_Andreeva": "77%", "set_Mertens": "52%", "set_Andreeva": "89%" }, "cote_indicative": { "Mertens": 3.3, "Andreeva": 1.36 }, "raisonnement": "Andreeva top 10, finaliste Roland-Garros 2025, en forme remarquable sur terre. Mertens top 30, spécialiste double, armes limitées contre l'élite sur clay lent. Skill gap massif.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Mertens, Elise", "joueur_2": "Andreeva, Mirra", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "Pas H2H récent référencé" } }, { "match": "Boisson, Lois vs Salkova, Dominika", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Boisson": "68%", "victoire_Salkova": "32%", "set_Boisson": "83%", "set_Salkova": "62%" }, "cote_indicative": { "Boisson": 1.66, "Salkova": 2.09 }, "raisonnement": "Boisson jeune française terre battue en ascension (top 50, qf Madrid 2025). Salkova tchèque ATP ~140 correcte mais inférieure. VALUE_LEAN sur edge marginal 5.5%, mise plafonnée.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Boisson, Lois", "joueur_2": "Salkova, Dominika", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "Pas H2H référencé" } }, { "match": "Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Premier League", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tottenham décimée (8 absents majeurs: Vicario/Solanke/Romero/Kudus/Kulusevski/Davies/Odobert/Simons) + forme L-L-L-D-L. Leeds données partielles (away_form vide, position=0). DC X2 cote théorique ~1.95 p_marche=51%, p_estimee=55% edge=2.6% < seuil DC 5%. ML pari sec interdit.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Tottenham": "45%", "nul": "27%", "victoire_Leeds": "28%", "over_25": "55%", "btts": "58%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.83, "nul": 3.85, "exterieur": 4.3 }, "raisonnement": "Tottenham 17e PL avec une infirmerie catastrophique (gardien titulaire, attaquants principaux, défenseur central absents). Leeds reste à analyser plus en profondeur car données partielles. Marché paye Tottenham 1.83 mais cette valeur semble trop élevée vu les absences. DC X2 (Leeds ou nul) angle intéressant mais edge insuffisant pour le seuil 5%.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Tottenham Hotspur", "equipe_2": "Leeds United", "position_classement": [ 17, null ], "forme_5_derniers": [ "L-L-L-D-L", "données partielles" ], "absences_cles": [ "Vicario", "Solanke", "Romero", "Kudus", "Kulusevski" ] } }, { "match": "Rayo Vallecano vs Girona FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Marché efficient: ML Rayo@2.48 p_marche=40.3%, p_estimee=42% -> p_finale=41.5% edge=1.2% < seuil ML 8% (pari sec interdit). DC 1X cote ~1.38, p_marche=72.5%, p_estimee DC 1X=70% -> p_finale=70.8% edge=-1.7% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Rayo": "42%", "nul": "28%", "victoire_Girona": "30%", "over_25": "48%", "btts": "55%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.48, "nul": 3.35, "exterieur": 2.95 }, "raisonnement": "Rayo Vallecano 8e en bonne forme (D-W-D-W-W) reçoit Girona 16e (L-L-W-L-W) en lutte pour le maintien. Match très ouvert que le marché paye en cotes triplettes équilibrées. Pas d'edge clair, marché efficient sur ce spot.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Rayo Vallecano", "equipe_2": "Girona FC", "position_classement": [ 8, 16 ], "forme_5_derniers": [ "D-W-D-W-W", "L-L-W-L-W" ], "absences_cles": [ "Palazon (rouge)", "ter Stegen", "Vanat", "Portu" ] } }, { "match": "SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "18:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 sur DC: cote théorique 1X = 1.08 < 1.30. ML Napoli@1.57 p_marche=63.7%, p_estimee=66% -> p_finale=64.7% edge=1.0% < seuil 5%. OU 4.25 U@1.13 < 1.30 NO BET. Aucun marché edge-positif accessible.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_Napoli": "66%", "nul": "22%", "victoire_Bologna": "12%", "over_25": "58%", "btts": "52%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.57, "nul": 4.2, "exterieur": 6.0 }, "raisonnement": "Napoli leader Serie A (W-D-D-W-W) reçoit Bologna 9e en chute libre (L-L-L-D-D). Lukaku et Neres absents pour Napoli mais l'équipe reste largement supérieure. Marché cale la ML très court (1.57), DC implicite <1.30 NO BET. Pas d'angle exploitable.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "SSC Napoli", "equipe_2": "Bologna FC", "position_classement": [ 1, 9 ], "forme_5_derniers": [ "W-D-D-W-W", "L-L-L-D-D" ], "absences_cles": [ "Lukaku", "Neres", "Bonifazi", "Cambiaghi" ] } }, { "match": "Vitoria SC Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Lisbon", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.72, "nul": 3.85, "exterieur": 4.6 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "CD Tondela vs Moreirense FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.94, "nul": 3.5, "exterieur": 3.85 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Gil Vicente Barcelos vs FC Arouca", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.71, "nul": 3.85, "exterieur": 4.7 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Estrela Amadora vs FC Famalicao", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 3.6, "nul": 3.55, "exterieur": 1.99 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Sporting@1.23 < 1.30. Aucun autre marche edge-positif accessible. Tier 2 DQ-B effectif (1 source).", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 10.0, "nul": 6.6, "exterieur": 1.23 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Santa Clara Azores vs Nacional da Madeira", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 2.3, "nul": 3.2, "exterieur": 3.2 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "SL Benfica vs SC Braga", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Benfica@1.42 court, edge ML insuffisant. Tier 2 DQ-B effectif (1 source). NO BET tier 2.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_exterieur": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.42, "nul": 4.7, "exterieur": 6.8 }, "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Millwall FC vs Hull City", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Championship", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tier 2 Championship: DQ-B effectif (1 source Stake). NO BET tier 2 systematique selon protocole v3.1.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_Millwall": "—", "nul": "—", "victoire_Hull": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.81, "nul": 3.85, "exterieur": 4.4 }, "raisonnement": "Millwall 8e reçoit Hull 21e. Match playoffs barrage potentiel. Données 1 bookmaker, tier 2 NO BET par protocole.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bellucci, Mattia vs Landaluce, Martin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Cote serrée 1.87/1.98 = quasi coin flip. p_estimee Bellucci=55%, p_marche=53.5%, p_finale=55.0%, edge=1.5% < seuil ML 5%.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.87, "away": 1.98 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Bellucci, Mattia", "joueur_2": "Landaluce, Martin", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "p_estimee Rublev=62%, p_marche=61.3%, p_finale=61.8%, edge=0.5% < seuil ML 5%. DF dangereux sur terre, edge insuffisant.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.63, "away": 2.34 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Rublev, Andrey", "joueur_2": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Nakashima, Brandon vs Basilashvili, Nikoloz", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "p_estimee Nakashima=64%, p_marche=63.3%, p_finale=63.8%, edge=0.5% < seuil ML 5%. Pas de spread NF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.58, "away": 2.45 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Nakashima, Brandon", "joueur_2": "Basilashvili, Nikoloz", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Tiafoe, Frances vs Pellegrino, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Tiafoe surface terre pas optimum, Pellegrino italien terrien motivation. p_estimee Tiafoe=70%, p_marche=70.9%, p_finale=70.3%, edge=-0.6% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.41, "away": 3.0 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Tiafoe, Frances", "joueur_2": "Pellegrino, Andrea", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Medjedovic, Hamad", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Medjedovic favori talent serbe, Navone terrien argentin. p_estimee Medje=60%, p_marche=59.2%, p_finale=59.8%, edge=0.6% < seuil 5%.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.19, "away": 1.69 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Navone, Mariano", "joueur_2": "Medjedovic, Hamad", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Popyrin, Alexei", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Sinner@1.01 < 1.30. Pari interdit malgré skill gap massif.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.01, "away": 16.0 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Sinner, Jannik", "joueur_2": "Popyrin, Alexei", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Llamas Ruiz, Pablo vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "14:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Medvedev faiblesse terre battue. Llamas Ruiz qualifié espagnol motivation. p_estimee Medvedev=68%, p_marche=71.4%, p_finale=69.0%, edge=-2.4% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 3.0, "away": 1.4 }, "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Llamas Ruiz, Pablo", "joueur_2": "Medvedev, Daniil", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Noskova, Linda", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Noskova favorite mais cote 1.79 marginale. p_estimee Noskova=55%, p_marche=55.9%, p_finale=55.3%, edge=-0.6% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.07, "away": 1.79 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Cirstea, Sorana", "joueur_2": "Noskova, Linda", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Jovic, Iva", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "10:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Gauff@1.29 < 1.30. Skill gap massif mais cote interdite.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.29, "away": 3.8 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Gauff, Coco", "joueur_2": "Jovic, Iva", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Ostapenko, Jelena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Ostapenko volatile terre, Kalinskaya talent inconstant. p_estimee Ostapenko=56%, p_marche=57.1%, p_finale=56.3%, edge=-0.8% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.13, "away": 1.75 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Kalinskaya, Anna", "joueur_2": "Ostapenko, Jelena", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Bartunkova, Nikola", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Svitolina@1.15 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.15, "away": 5.6 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Svitolina, Elina", "joueur_2": "Bartunkova, Nikola", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Pegula, Jessica vs Potapova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "13:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Pegula terre n'est pas sa surface fav. p_estimee Pegula=70%, p_marche=68.0%, p_finale=69.4%, edge=1.4% < seuil ML 5%. CONFIANCE: p_finale<0.72.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.47, "away": 2.7 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Pegula, Jessica", "joueur_2": "Potapova, Anastasia", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Osaka, Naomi vs Swiatek, Iga", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "16:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Swiatek@1.28 < 1.30. Domination terre attendue mais cote interdite.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 3.7, "away": 1.28 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Osaka, Naomi", "joueur_2": "Swiatek, Iga", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Pliskova, Karolina vs Rybakina, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Rybakina@1.13 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 6.2, "away": 1.13 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Pliskova, Karolina", "joueur_2": "Rybakina, Elena", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Podrez, Veronika vs Guo, Hanyu", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "p_estimee Podrez=65%, p_marche=70.9%, p_finale=66.7%, edge=-4.2% NEGATIF. Marché plus optimiste que modèle.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.41, "away": 2.7 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Podrez, Veronika", "joueur_2": "Guo, Hanyu", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Crinebouch, Hajar", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Preston@1.01 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.01, "away": 11.0 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Preston, Taylah", "joueur_2": "Crinebouch, Hajar", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Korpatsch, Tamara vs Efremova, Ksenia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Korpatsch@1.24 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.24, "away": 3.7 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Korpatsch, Tamara", "joueur_2": "Efremova, Ksenia", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Charaeva, Alina vs Tubello, Alice", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C: cotes indisponibles. NO BET par défaut.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": null, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Charaeva, Alina", "joueur_2": "Tubello, Alice", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Volynets, Katie", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Volynets favorite expérience. p_estimee Volynets=62%, p_marche=63.7%, p_finale=62.5%, edge=-1.2% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.25, "away": 1.57 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Korneeva, Alina", "joueur_2": "Volynets, Katie", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Inglis, Maddison vs Zakharova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Zakharova@1.19 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 4.1, "away": 1.19 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Inglis, Maddison", "joueur_2": "Zakharova, Anastasia", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Zarazua, Renata vs Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "p_estimee Zarazua=67%, p_marche=67.1%, p_finale=67.1%, edge=0.0% NUL.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.49, "away": 2.45 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Zarazua, Renata", "joueur_2": "Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Gibson, Talia vs Sasnovich, Aliaksandra", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Sasnovich vétérane terre, Gibson en progression. p_estimee Sasnovich=58%, p_marche=58.8%, p_finale=58.6%, edge=-0.2% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.03, "away": 1.7 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Gibson, Talia", "joueur_2": "Sasnovich, Aliaksandra", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Paquet, Chloe vs Joint, Maya", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Joint en ascension. p_estimee Joint=75%, p_marche=76.9%, p_finale=75.6%, edge=-1.3% NEGATIF. Cote 1.30 limite mais edge négatif.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 3.2, "away": 1.3 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Paquet, Chloe", "joueur_2": "Joint, Maya", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Kessler, McCartney vs Putintseva, Yulia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Putintseva terre solide. p_estimee Putintseva=62%, p_marche=61.0%, p_finale=61.7%, edge=0.7% < seuil ML 5%.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.13, "away": 1.64 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Kessler, McCartney", "joueur_2": "Putintseva, Yulia", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Fossa Huergo, Nicole", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Kulambayeva@1.21 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.21, "away": 3.95 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek", "joueur_2": "Fossa Huergo, Nicole", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Bocchi, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Bosio@1.02 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.02, "away": 10.0 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Bosio, Victoria", "joueur_2": "Bocchi, Elena", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Bandecchi, Susan vs Sakellaridi, Sapfo", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Bandecchi@1.25 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.25, "away": 3.6 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Bandecchi, Susan", "joueur_2": "Sakellaridi, Sapfo", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "CE, Gabriela vs Chiesa, Deborah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Chiesa italienne terre favorite légitime. p_estimee Chiesa=65%, p_marche=68.5%, p_finale=66.1%, edge=-2.4% NEGATIF.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.55, "away": 1.46 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "CE, Gabriela", "joueur_2": "Chiesa, Deborah", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Osuigwe, Whitney", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Vandewinkel jeune en progression. p_estimee Vandewinkel=65%, p_marche=65.4%, p_finale=65.1%, edge=-0.3% NEGATIF. CONFIANCE 125K p_finale<0.76.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.53, "away": 2.34 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Vandewinkel, Hanne", "joueur_2": "Osuigwe, Whitney", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Lombardini, Marta vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Bouzas@1.04 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 8.6, "away": 1.04 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Lombardini, Marta", "joueur_2": "Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Parks, Alycia vs Stoiana, Mary", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Parks puissante dur, terre moyenne. p_estimee Parks=68%, p_marche=66.7%, p_finale=67.6%, edge=0.9% < seuil ML 5%. CONFIANCE 125K p_finale<0.76.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.5, "away": 2.41 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Parks, Alycia", "joueur_2": "Stoiana, Mary", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Juvan, Kaja vs Uchijima, Moyuka", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Uchijima japonaise terre solide. p_estimee Uchijima=62%, p_marche=61.0%, p_finale=61.6%, edge=0.6% < seuil ML 5%.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 2.13, "away": 1.64 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Juvan, Kaja", "joueur_2": "Uchijima, Moyuka", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "14:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Krejcikova@1.27 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.27, "away": 3.4 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Krejcikova, Barbora", "joueur_2": "Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Pigato, Lisa vs Bronzetti, Lucia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Pigato favorite à domicile mais Bronzetti top 80. Marché paye contre attendu. p_estimee Pigato=60%, p_marche=67.1%, p_finale=62.1%, edge=-5.0% NEGATIF. Méfiance signal marché.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.49, "away": 2.44 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Pigato, Lisa", "joueur_2": "Bronzetti, Lucia", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Urgesi, Federica vs Chwalinska, Maja", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Chwalinska@1.09 < 1.30.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_home": "—", "victoire_away": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 6.2, "away": 1.09 }, "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Urgesi, Federica", "joueur_2": "Chwalinska, Maja", "surface": "Terre battue (clay)", "h2h": "non détaillé" } }, { "match": "Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C: WNBA hors scope protocole NBA. Cotes indisponibles. NO BET hors scope.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "home_win": "—", "away_win": "—" }, "cote_indicative": null, "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NBA playoffs en cours mais injury report < 2h avant tip-off non vérifié. NO BET protocole NBA auto. OU 215.5 et ATS edge non calculable sans data pace/blessures recente.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "home_win": "—", "away_win": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 1.62, "away": 2.31 }, "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "02:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1: Thunder@1.19 < 1.30. OU 217.5 / ATS playoffs: injury report < 2h non vérifié, NO BET protocole NBA auto.", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "home_win": "—", "away_win": "—" }, "cote_indicative": { "home": 4.8, "away": 1.19 }, "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C: cotes indisponibles. NO BET par défaut.", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": { "home_win": "—", "away_win": "—" }, "cote_indicative": null, "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies.", "stats_comparatives": null } ], "paris": [ { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "ligue_canonique": "ATP_M1000", "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Tirante, Thiago Agustin", "heure": "17:00", "marche": "Match Winner (ML)", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Cobolli, Flavio", "cote": 1.41, "cote_plancher": 1.41, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=73.1%, f_full=8.4%, qk=2.1%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=10.5 EUR -> cap CONFIANCE_STD 1u", "edge_estime": "+2.2%", "edge_num": 0.0218, "probabilite_estimee": "74%", "p_estimee": 0.74, "probabilite_marche": "70.9%", "probabilite_finale": "73.1%", "p_finale_num": 0.7307, "robustesse": "Avec p_estimee -3% (71%) p_finale=72.0% encore au seuil; edge resterait positif. Test cote +0.05 (1.46) edge devient ~0%, decision marginale. Robustesse modeste.", "raisonnement": "Cobolli (ATP ~32, italien terrien droitier) joue son tournoi à domicile à Rome sur sa meilleure surface. Excellente saison terre battue en 2025-2026 (finale Bucarest, demi Madrid). Tirante (ATP ~85, argentin terrien) est solide mais d'un cran inférieur. Avantage psychologique du Foro Italico et skill gap intrinsèque. CONFIANCE_STD car edge modeste mais p_finale solide >0.72.", "moteur": "CONFIANCE", "statut_v3": "CONFIANCE_STD", "protocol_version": "3.1", "chaos": 1, "tier": "tier1" }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "ligue_canonique": "WTA_1000", "match": "Mertens, Elise vs Andreeva, Mirra", "heure": "11:20", "marche": "Match Winner (ML)", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Andreeva, Mirra", "cote": 1.36, "cote_plancher": 1.36, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=76.0%, f_full=10.7%, qk=2.7%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=13.4 EUR -> cap CONFIANCE_STD 1u", "edge_estime": "+2.5%", "edge_num": 0.0249, "probabilite_estimee": "77%", "p_estimee": 0.77, "probabilite_marche": "73.5%", "probabilite_finale": "76.0%", "p_finale_num": 0.7599, "robustesse": "Test +3% sur p_estimee: edge passe a ~+4%, confirmation. Cote +0.05 (1.41) edge tombe a ~+0.5%, decision marginale. Skill gap genere une robustesse acceptable.", "raisonnement": "Mirra Andreeva (top 10 WTA, finaliste Roland-Garros 2025, demi Indian Wells 2025) est dans une forme remarquable sur terre battue. Elise Mertens (top 30, spécialiste double) reste solide mais offre des armes limitées contre une talent comme Andreeva sur surface lente. Le marché paye 1.36 mais le skill gap justifie p_estimee plus élevée. CONFIANCE_STD avec p_finale 76%.", "moteur": "CONFIANCE", "statut_v3": "CONFIANCE_STD", "protocol_version": "3.1", "chaos": 1, "tier": "tier1" }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "ligue_canonique": "WTA_QUAL", "match": "Boisson, Lois vs Salkova, Dominika", "heure": "10:10", "marche": "Match Winner (ML)", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Boisson, Lois", "cote": 1.66, "cote_plancher": 1.65, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "kelly_calcul": "p_finale=65.7%, f_full=13.7%, qk=3.4%, chaos*1.0, mise_brute=17.2 EUR -> cap WTA 125K 1u", "edge_estime": "+5.5%", "edge_num": 0.0545, "probabilite_estimee": "68%", "p_estimee": 0.68, "probabilite_marche": "60.2%", "probabilite_finale": "65.7%", "p_finale_num": 0.6566, "robustesse": "Test -3% sur p_estimee (65%) p_finale=63.6%, edge=3.4% sous seuil. Edge marginal au seuil 5%. Cote +0.05 (1.71) edge=4%. Fragilite reconnue mais surface + dynamique justifient.", "raisonnement": "Lois Boisson, jeune française en ascension fulgurante sur terre battue en 2025-2026 (top 50, qf Madrid 2025, demi Strasbourg). Surface clay = son terrain de prédilection. Dominika Salkova (tchèque, ATP ~140) est correcte sur terre mais inférieure techniquement. Marché paye Boisson seulement 1.66 alors que skill gap suggère 1.50. VALUE_LEAN, mise plafonnée 1u sur WTA 125K par prudence.", "moteur": "VALUE", "statut_v3": "VALUE_LEAN", "protocol_version": "3.1", "chaos": 1, "tier": "qualif" } ], "no_bet": [ { "match": "Tottenham Hotspur vs Leeds United", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Premier League", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Tottenham décimée (8 absents majeurs: Vicario/Solanke/Romero/Kudus/Kulusevski/Davies/Odobert/Simons) + forme L-L-L-D-L. Leeds données partielles (away_form vide, position=0). DC X2 cote théorique ~1.95 p_marche=51%, p_estimee=55% edge=2.6% < seuil DC 5%. ML pari sec interdit.", "raisonnement": "Tottenham 17e PL avec une infirmerie catastrophique (gardien titulaire, attaquants principaux, défenseur central absents). Leeds reste à analyser plus en profondeur car données partielles. Marché paye" }, { "match": "Rayo Vallecano vs Girona FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Marché efficient: ML Rayo@2.48 p_marche=40.3%, p_estimee=42% -> p_finale=41.5% edge=1.2% < seuil ML 8% (pari sec interdit). DC 1X cote ~1.38, p_marche=72.5%, p_estimee DC 1X=70% -> p_finale=70.8% edge=-1.7% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Rayo Vallecano 8e en bonne forme (D-W-D-W-W) reçoit Girona 16e (L-L-W-L-W) en lutte pour le maintien. Match très ouvert que le marché paye en cotes triplettes équilibrées. Pas d'edge clair, marché eff" }, { "match": "SSC Napoli vs Bologna FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Serie A", "heure": "18:45", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 sur DC: cote théorique 1X = 1.08 < 1.30. ML Napoli@1.57 p_marche=63.7%, p_estimee=66% -> p_finale=64.7% edge=1.0% < seuil 5%. OU 4.25 U@1.13 < 1.30 NO BET. Aucun marché edge-positif accessible.", "raisonnement": "Napoli leader Serie A (W-D-D-W-W) reçoit Bologna 9e en chute libre (L-L-L-D-D). Lukaku et Neres absents pour Napoli mais l'équipe reste largement supérieure. Marché cale la ML très court (1.57), DC im" }, { "match": "Vitoria SC Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Lisbon", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "CD Tondela vs Moreirense FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "Gil Vicente Barcelos vs FC Arouca", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "Estrela Amadora vs FC Famalicao", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "Rio Ave FC vs Sporting CP", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Sporting@1.23 < 1.30. Aucun autre marche edge-positif accessible. Tier 2 DQ-B effectif (1 source).", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "Santa Clara Azores vs Nacional da Madeira", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Liga Portugal: skill exige DQ-A + cotes >=2 sources. Stake seul = DQ-B effectif. NO BET tier 2 systematique.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "SL Benfica vs SC Braga", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Liga Portugal", "heure": "19:15", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Benfica@1.42 court, edge ML insuffisant. Tier 2 DQ-B effectif (1 source). NO BET tier 2.", "raisonnement": "Match analysé en filtrage Phase 2: ligue tier 2, données 1 bookmaker uniquement, pas de >=2 sources confirmées. Selon protocole v3.1, NO BET tier 2 par défaut sauf DQ-A complet." }, { "match": "Millwall FC vs Hull City", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Championship", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-B", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tier 2 Championship: DQ-B effectif (1 source Stake). NO BET tier 2 systematique selon protocole v3.1.", "raisonnement": "Millwall 8e reçoit Hull 21e. Match playoffs barrage potentiel. Données 1 bookmaker, tier 2 NO BET par protocole." }, { "match": "Bellucci, Mattia vs Landaluce, Martin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Cote serrée 1.87/1.98 = quasi coin flip. p_estimee Bellucci=55%, p_marche=53.5%, p_finale=55.0%, edge=1.5% < seuil ML 5%.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "p_estimee Rublev=62%, p_marche=61.3%, p_finale=61.8%, edge=0.5% < seuil ML 5%. DF dangereux sur terre, edge insuffisant.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Nakashima, Brandon vs Basilashvili, Nikoloz", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "p_estimee Nakashima=64%, p_marche=63.3%, p_finale=63.8%, edge=0.5% < seuil ML 5%. Pas de spread NF.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Tiafoe, Frances vs Pellegrino, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Tiafoe surface terre pas optimum, Pellegrino italien terrien motivation. p_estimee Tiafoe=70%, p_marche=70.9%, p_finale=70.3%, edge=-0.6% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Medjedovic, Hamad", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Medjedovic favori talent serbe, Navone terrien argentin. p_estimee Medje=60%, p_marche=59.2%, p_finale=59.8%, edge=0.6% < seuil 5%.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Popyrin, Alexei", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Sinner@1.01 < 1.30. Pari interdit malgré skill gap massif.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Llamas Ruiz, Pablo vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "14:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Medvedev faiblesse terre battue. Llamas Ruiz qualifié espagnol motivation. p_estimee Medvedev=68%, p_marche=71.4%, p_finale=69.0%, edge=-2.4% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match ATP Rome M1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Noskova, Linda", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Noskova favorite mais cote 1.79 marginale. p_estimee Noskova=55%, p_marche=55.9%, p_finale=55.3%, edge=-0.6% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Jovic, Iva", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "10:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Gauff@1.29 < 1.30. Skill gap massif mais cote interdite.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Ostapenko, Jelena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Ostapenko volatile terre, Kalinskaya talent inconstant. p_estimee Ostapenko=56%, p_marche=57.1%, p_finale=56.3%, edge=-0.8% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Bartunkova, Nikola", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Svitolina@1.15 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Pegula, Jessica vs Potapova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "13:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Pegula terre n'est pas sa surface fav. p_estimee Pegula=70%, p_marche=68.0%, p_finale=69.4%, edge=1.4% < seuil ML 5%. CONFIANCE: p_finale<0.72.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Osaka, Naomi vs Swiatek, Iga", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "16:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Swiatek@1.28 < 1.30. Domination terre attendue mais cote interdite.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Pliskova, Karolina vs Rybakina, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Rybakina@1.13 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA Rome 1000 analysé en Phase 3, edge insuffisant ou cote < 1.30." }, { "match": "Podrez, Veronika vs Guo, Hanyu", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "p_estimee Podrez=65%, p_marche=70.9%, p_finale=66.7%, edge=-4.2% NEGATIF. Marché plus optimiste que modèle.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Crinebouch, Hajar", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Preston@1.01 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Korpatsch, Tamara vs Efremova, Ksenia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Korpatsch@1.24 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Charaeva, Alina vs Tubello, Alice", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DQ-C: cotes indisponibles. NO BET par défaut.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Volynets, Katie", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Volynets favorite expérience. p_estimee Volynets=62%, p_marche=63.7%, p_finale=62.5%, edge=-1.2% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Inglis, Maddison vs Zakharova, Anastasia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Zakharova@1.19 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Zarazua, Renata vs Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "p_estimee Zarazua=67%, p_marche=67.1%, p_finale=67.1%, edge=0.0% NUL.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Gibson, Talia vs Sasnovich, Aliaksandra", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Sasnovich vétérane terre, Gibson en progression. p_estimee Sasnovich=58%, p_marche=58.8%, p_finale=58.6%, edge=-0.2% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Paquet, Chloe vs Joint, Maya", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Joint en ascension. p_estimee Joint=75%, p_marche=76.9%, p_finale=75.6%, edge=-1.3% NEGATIF. Cote 1.30 limite mais edge négatif.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Kessler, McCartney vs Putintseva, Yulia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Putintseva terre solide. p_estimee Putintseva=62%, p_marche=61.0%, p_finale=61.7%, edge=0.7% < seuil ML 5%.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Paris analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Fossa Huergo, Nicole", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Kulambayeva@1.21 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Bocchi, Elena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Bosio@1.02 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Bandecchi, Susan vs Sakellaridi, Sapfo", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Bandecchi@1.25 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "CE, Gabriela vs Chiesa, Deborah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Chiesa italienne terre favorite légitime. p_estimee Chiesa=65%, p_marche=68.5%, p_finale=66.1%, edge=-2.4% NEGATIF.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Osuigwe, Whitney", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Vandewinkel jeune en progression. p_estimee Vandewinkel=65%, p_marche=65.4%, p_finale=65.1%, edge=-0.3% NEGATIF. CONFIANCE 125K p_finale<0.76.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Lombardini, Marta vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Bouzas@1.04 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Parks, Alycia vs Stoiana, Mary", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Parks puissante dur, terre moyenne. p_estimee Parks=68%, p_marche=66.7%, p_finale=67.6%, edge=0.9% < seuil ML 5%. CONFIANCE 125K p_finale<0.76.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Juvan, Kaja vs Uchijima, Moyuka", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Uchijima japonaise terre solide. p_estimee Uchijima=62%, p_marche=61.0%, p_finale=61.6%, edge=0.6% < seuil ML 5%.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "14:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Krejcikova@1.27 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Pigato, Lisa vs Bronzetti, Lucia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Pigato favorite à domicile mais Bronzetti top 80. Marché paye contre attendu. p_estimee Pigato=60%, p_marche=67.1%, p_finale=62.1%, edge=-5.0% NEGATIF. Méfiance signal marché.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Urgesi, Federica vs Chwalinska, Maja", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Chwalinska@1.09 < 1.30.", "raisonnement": "Match WTA 125K Parma analysé selon critères renforcés CONFIANCE/VALUE." }, { "match": "Golden State Valkyries vs Phoenix Mercury", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C: WNBA hors scope protocole NBA. Cotes indisponibles. NO BET hors scope.", "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies." }, { "match": "Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NBA playoffs en cours mais injury report < 2h avant tip-off non vérifié. NO BET protocole NBA auto. OU 215.5 et ATS edge non calculable sans data pace/blessures recente.", "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies." }, { "match": "Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "02:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1: Thunder@1.19 < 1.30. OU 217.5 / ATS playoffs: injury report < 2h non vérifié, NO BET protocole NBA auto.", "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies." }, { "match": "New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C: cotes indisponibles. NO BET par défaut.", "raisonnement": "Match NBA analysé. Playoffs ou WNBA. Conditions protocole NBA strictes non remplies." } ], "resume": { "total_paris": 3, "exposition_totale_euros": 30, "exposition_totale_unites": "3.0u", "quota_atteint": "3/8", "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": { "profit_net_euros": 14.3, "ROI_potentiel": "+47.7%" } } }