{ "date": "2026-05-12", "generated": "2026-05-12T07:14:56", "model_version": "3.1", "analyses": [ { "match": "RC Celta de Vigo vs Levante UD", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DC 1X=1.24 et DC 12=1.28 sous seuil 1.30 (NO BET 1) + ML Celta 1.83 edge 0.3% sous seuil 5% + OU 2.5 et BTTS edges sous seuil 4%", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "55%", "nul": "25%", "victoire_exterieur": "20%", "over_25": "55%", "btts": "53%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.83, "nul": 3.85, "exterieur": 4.3 }, "total_estime": "2.5 buts", "raisonnement": "Celta 7e La Liga, forme correcte WLWWL, accueille Levante affaibli (3 blessures cles : Alvarez, Elgezabal, Primo). Favoritisme legitime mais marche bien calibre — toutes les options ML/DC/OU/BTTS sont au prix du marche ou sous le seuil 1.30.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "football", "equipe_1": "Celta Vigo", "equipe_2": "Levante", "stats": { "position_classement": [ 7, 19 ], "forme_5_derniers": [ "WLWWL", "[NON VERIFIE]" ], "absences_cles": [ "Roman, Starfelt, Vecino", "Alvarez, Elgezabal, Primo, Vencedor" ] } } }, { "match": "Real Betis Seville vs Elche CF", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes non recuperees par Stake", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Aucune cote disponible — impossible de calculer un edge. Match non analyse.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "CA Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes non recuperees", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Aucune cote disponible. Atletico decimal par blessures (J. Alvarez, Gimenez, Simeone, Molina, Gonzalez), Osasuna receptionne sans Herrera (RC). Match potentiellement piege mais sans cotes -> non analysable.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Red Star FC vs Rodez Aveyron Football", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Ligue 1", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : aucune cote + match Ligue 2 hors scope", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Red Star 4e vs Rodez 5e Ligue 2 selon enrichment_ws — match hors scope v3.1 (uniquement L1). Pas de cotes.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Southampton FC vs Middlesbrough FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Championship", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C tier2 : cotes indisponibles malgre playoff promotion PL", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Playoff Championship 2e manche apres 0-0 a Middlesbrough. Forte tension, Under buts probable mais sans cotes liquides confirmees -> NO BET tier2.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Prizmic, Dino", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge ML Khachanov negatif (-4.4%), edge Prizmic insuffisant (+1.6% < 5%)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "60%", "victoire_J2": "40%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 2.65, "J2": 1.51 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Khachanov [13] qualifie experimente, vainqueur 5-7 6-4 6-4 au tour precedent. Prizmic jeune Croate prometteur sur terre mais ranking inferieur. Marche correctement evalue Khachanov favori.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Khachanov", "joueur_2": "Prizmic", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "contexte": "ATP Rome M1000" } } }, { "match": "Musetti, Lorenzo vs Ruud, Casper", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Musetti ML edge marginal 5% au seuil, robustesse fragile (H2H 2-0 Ruud sur terre)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "45%", "victoire_J2": "55%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 2.65, "J2": 1.51 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Musetti heros local en confiance vs Ruud specialiste terre. H2H 2-1 Ruud avec 2-0 sur terre — defavorable Musetti. Edge Musetti pile au seuil 5% mais robustesse fragile : -3% sur p_estimee fait chuter edge a 3%.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Musetti", "joueur_2": "Ruud", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "h2h": "2-1 Ruud (2-0 sur terre)", "contexte": "Musetti a domicile" } } }, { "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Tien, Learner", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Jodar 1.26 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "79%", "victoire_J2": "21%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.26, "J2": 4.1 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Jodar favori marche sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu v3.1.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Darderi, Luciano vs Zverev, Alexander", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Zverev 1.21 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "23%", "victoire_J2": "77%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 4.4, "J2": 1.21 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Zverev favori marche sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu v3.1.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Pellegrino, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Sinner 1.01 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "98%", "victoire_J2": "2%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.01, "J2": 18.0 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Sinner ultra-favori marche sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Basilashvili, Nikoloz", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Rublev 1.29 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "78%", "victoire_J2": "22%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.29, "J2": 3.6 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Rublev favori marche sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu (cote 1.29 marginale).", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Medjedovic, Hamad vs Landaluce, Martin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "15:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edges negatifs : Medjedovic -2.6% / Landaluce -1.0%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "60%", "victoire_J2": "40%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.57, "J2": 2.41 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Medjedovic en progression vs Landaluce jeune espagnol qualifie dynamique. Leger avantage Landaluce sur ocre selon enrichment. Marche bien calibre — pas d'edge exploitable.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Medjedovic", "joueur_2": "Landaluce", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "contexte": "Landaluce qualifie" } } }, { "match": "Tirante, Thiago Agustin vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome (Masters 1000)", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : aucune cote recuperee", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Cotes indisponibles. Medvedev grand favori implicite mais sans cotes pas d'edge.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Ostapenko, Jelena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome (1000)", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge Cirstea ML -0.7% (marche bien calibre, p_finale 60.3% vs marche 61.0%)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "60%", "victoire_J2": "40%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.64, "J2": 2.33 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Cirstea 9-2 sur terre 2026, eliminé Sabalenka puis Noskova [13] 6-2 6-4. Ostapenko en QF 2e clay swing. H2H 4-3 Ostapenko mais Cirstea sur les 3/4 derniers, dernière a Brisbane jan 2026. Modele predictif aligne sur 56% Cirstea, marche 60.9%.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Cirstea", "joueur_2": "Ostapenko", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "h2h": "4-3 Ostapenko (Cirstea 3/4 derniers)", "forme": "Cirstea 9-2 clay 2026" } } }, { "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Andreeva, Mirra", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome (1000)", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge Gauff ML +3.2% < seuil 5%, robustesse fragile (divergence H2H vs forme)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "55%", "victoire_J2": "45%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.98, "J2": 1.84 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Gauff H2H 4-0 vs Andreeva (3 sur terre, 8 sets consecutifs), surface dominante. Andreeva 15-2 clay 2026, en forme. Marche favorise Andreeva 1.84. Test robustesse echoue : Gauff edge 3.2% < seuil.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Gauff", "joueur_2": "Andreeva", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "h2h": "4-0 Gauff (3 sur terre, 8 sets)", "forme": "Andreeva 15-2 clay 2026" } } }, { "match": "Birrell, Kimberly vs Boulter, Katie", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Boulter 1.28 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "23%", "victoire_J2": "77%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 3.35, "J2": 1.28 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Boulter favori sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Podrez, Veronika vs Stephens, Sloane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes recuperees par Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bejlek, Sara vs Charaeva, Alina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes recuperees par Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Starodubtseva, Yuliia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes recuperees par Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Burel, Clara vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "10:50", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes recuperees par Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Zhang, Shuai vs Sakatsume, Himeno", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes recuperees par Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Haddad Maia, Beatriz vs Parry, Diane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge ML Haddad Maia +1.1% < seuil 5%", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "61%", "victoire_J2": "39%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.68, "J2": 2.06 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Haddad Maia (BRA) gauchere fortes annees sur terre, en quete de forme avant RG. Parry (FRA) a domicile niveau WTA 100-150. Avantage Haddad Maia surface mais edge marginal apres shrinkage.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Haddad Maia", "joueur_2": "Parry", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "contexte": "Parry a domicile" } } }, { "match": "Navarro, Emma vs Radivojevic, Lola", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Edge ML Navarro -4.1% (marche surevalue compte tenu faiblesse surface)", "niveau_confiance": "moyen", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "70%", "victoire_J2": "30%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.32, "J2": 3.1 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Navarro top 20 WTA mais bilan terre 2-4 inquietant, conversion break points 34.5% seulement sur ocre. Marche la voit 76% mais faiblesse surface non integree.", "stats_comparatives": { "type": "tennis", "joueur_1": "Navarro", "joueur_2": "Radivojevic", "stats": { "surface": "terre battue", "navarro_bilan_terre": "2-4 2026" } } }, { "match": "Blinkova, Anna vs Fernandez, Leylah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Fernandez 1.14 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "12%", "victoire_J2": "88%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 4.9, "J2": 1.14 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Fernandez ultra-favori sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Keys, Madison vs Ferro, Fiona", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Keys 1.18 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "84%", "victoire_J2": "16%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 1.18, "J2": 4.3 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Keys favori sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET absolu.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Friedsam, Anna-Lena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Chiesa, Deborah vs Osorio, Camila", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Hon, Priscilla vs Bandecchi, Susan", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Yastremska, Dayana", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Monnet, Carole", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Basiletti, Noemi vs Tagger, Lilli", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Yuan, Yue vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Pas de cotes Stake.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Lepchenko, Varvara vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Golubic 1.22 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_J1": "18%", "victoire_J2": "82%" }, "cote_indicative": { "J1": 3.85, "J2": 1.22 }, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Golubic favori sous seuil 1.30 = NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "02:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles + Lakers diminues (Doncic OUT)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Game 4 Western semi, OKC mene 3-0. Doncic (Lakers leading scorer) OUT grade 2 hamstring. Thunder grand favori probable mais sans cotes pas d'edge.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match fantome — serie NYK 4-0 PHI deja terminee", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Knicks ont sweepe 76ers 4-0 (dernier 144-114 le 10 mai). Match du 12 mai dans odds-api est residuel — ne sera pas joue.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — Spurs 1.23 < 1.30", "niveau_confiance": "eleve", "probabilites": { "victoire_domicile": "81%", "victoire_exterieur": "19%" }, "cote_indicative": { "domicile": 1.23, "exterieur": 4.2 }, "total_estime": "217.5 pts", "raisonnement": "Game 5 demi-finale WC, SAS mene 3-1. Spurs peut conclure a domicile. Cote favori sous 1.30 = NO BET.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "DQ-C : cotes indisponibles + injury report incertain (Huerter, LeVert)", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "Eastern semi en cours. Pistons : Huerter et LeVert QUESTIONABLE — sans confirmation NO BET auto. Pas de cotes.", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "WNBA non couverte (skipped_wnba dans enrichment).", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Portland Fire vs New York Liberty", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "02:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "WNBA non couverte (skipped_wnba dans enrichment).", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "02:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "WNBA non couverte (skipped_wnba dans enrichment).", "stats_comparatives": null }, { "match": "Toronto Tempo vs Seattle Storm", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "niveau_confiance": "faible", "probabilites": null, "cote_indicative": null, "total_estime": null, "raisonnement": "WNBA non couverte (skipped_wnba dans enrichment).", "stats_comparatives": null } ], "paris": [], "no_bet": [ { "match": "RC Celta de Vigo vs Levante UD", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "DC 1X 1.24 et DC 12 1.28 sous 1.30 (NO BET 1). ML/OU/BTTS edges sous seuils v3.1.", "raisonnement": "Marche bien calibre malgre les absences Levante; aucun marche prioritaire ne degage edge >= seuil minimum." }, { "match": "Real Betis Seville vs Elche CF", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix de marche -> calcul d'edge impossible." }, { "match": "CA Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Multiples blessures Atletico, mais sans cotes pas d'edge calculable." }, { "match": "Red Star FC vs Rodez Aveyron Football", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Ligue 1", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — match Ligue 2 hors scope + cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Ligue 2 non couverte v3.1." }, { "match": "Southampton FC vs Middlesbrough FC", "sport": "football", "ligue": "Championship", "heure": "19:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C tier2 — cotes indisponibles + regle tier2 (>=2 sources confirmees obligatoire)", "raisonnement": "Tier2 requiert DQ-A pour acces analyse." }, { "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Prizmic, Dino", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edge ML Khachanov -4.4% (negatif) / Prizmic +1.6% < seuil 5%", "raisonnement": "Marche aligne sur fondamentaux. Pas de divergence exploitable." }, { "match": "Musetti, Lorenzo vs Ruud, Casper", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Musetti ML edge 5% pile au seuil, robustesse fragile (H2H 2-0 Ruud sur terre)", "raisonnement": "Test robustesse echoue : -3% p_estimee -> edge 3% < 5%. Discipline." }, { "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Tien, Learner", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Jodar 1.26 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30. Tien outsider 4.10 (>3.50 hors scope)." }, { "match": "Darderi, Luciano vs Zverev, Alexander", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Zverev 1.21 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30. Darderi outsider 4.40 (>3.50)." }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Pellegrino, Andrea", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Sinner 1.01 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30. Pellegrino 18.00 hors scope." }, { "match": "Rublev, Andrey vs Basilashvili, Nikoloz", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Rublev 1.29 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30 (marginal). Basilashvili 3.60 (>3.50 hors scope)." }, { "match": "Medjedovic, Hamad vs Landaluce, Martin", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "15:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edges ML negatifs : Medjedovic -2.6% / Landaluce -1.0%", "raisonnement": "Marche aligne sur fondamentaux. Pas de prix mal evalue." }, { "match": "Tirante, Thiago Agustin vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Ostapenko, Jelena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edge Cirstea ML -0.7% < seuil 5%", "raisonnement": "Marche aligne avec analyse. Aucune divergence exploitable." }, { "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Andreeva, Mirra", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA Rome", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Edge Gauff ML +3.2% < seuil 5% + chaos 2 (divergence H2H vs forme)", "raisonnement": "Robustesse fragile : -3% p_estimee fait basculer edge en negatif." }, { "match": "Birrell, Kimberly vs Boulter, Katie", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Boulter 1.28 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30." }, { "match": "Podrez, Veronika vs Stephens, Sloane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Bejlek, Sara vs Charaeva, Alina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Starodubtseva, Yuliia", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Burel, Clara vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "10:50", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Zhang, Shuai vs Sakatsume, Himeno", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Haddad Maia, Beatriz vs Parry, Diane", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "Edge Haddad Maia ML +1.1% < seuil 5%", "raisonnement": "Marche bien calibre." }, { "match": "Navarro, Emma vs Radivojevic, Lola", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "09:40", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Edge Navarro ML -4.1% (negatif)", "raisonnement": "Marche surevalue Navarro vu faiblesse surface. Pas d'edge exploitable." }, { "match": "Blinkova, Anna vs Fernandez, Leylah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "12:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Fernandez 1.14 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30." }, { "match": "Keys, Madison vs Ferro, Fiona", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "13:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Keys 1.18 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30." }, { "match": "Kulambayeva, Zhibek vs Friedsam, Anna-Lena", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Chiesa, Deborah vs Osorio, Camila", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Hon, Priscilla vs Bandecchi, Susan", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Bosio, Victoria vs Yastremska, Dayana", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Monnet, Carole", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Basiletti, Noemi vs Tagger, Lilli", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Yuan, Yue vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "15:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche." }, { "match": "Lepchenko, Varvara vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Golubic 1.22 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Cote favori sous seuil absolu 1.30." }, { "match": "Los Angeles Lakers vs Oklahoma City Thunder", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "02:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles", "raisonnement": "Pas de prix marche. Doncic OUT integre." }, { "match": "New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "Match fantome — serie sweepee 4-0", "raisonnement": "Match residuel listé par odds-api, non joue." }, { "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "NO BET 1 — Spurs 1.23 < 1.30", "raisonnement": "Game 5 SAS mene 3-1, Spurs ultra-favori a domicile, cote sous seuil absolu 1.30." }, { "match": "Detroit Pistons vs Cleveland Cavaliers", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA Playoffs", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 3, "raison": "DQ-C — cotes indisponibles + injury report incertain (Huerter+LeVert QUESTIONABLE)", "raisonnement": "Sans confirmation injuries -> NO BET auto. Pas de prix marche non plus." }, { "match": "Dallas Wings vs Atlanta Dream", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "00:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "raisonnement": "Ligue non couverte par le protocole." }, { "match": "Portland Fire vs New York Liberty", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "02:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "raisonnement": "Ligue non couverte par le protocole." }, { "match": "Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "02:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "raisonnement": "Ligue non couverte par le protocole." }, { "match": "Toronto Tempo vs Seattle Storm", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "WNBA", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-C", "chaos": 2, "raison": "WNBA hors scope v3.1", "raisonnement": "Ligue non couverte par le protocole." } ], "resume": { "total_paris": 0, "exposition_totale_euros": 0, "exposition_totale_unites": "0u", "quota_atteint": "0/8", "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": { "profit_net_euros": 0, "ROI_potentiel": "+0%" } } }