{ "date": "2026-05-14", "generated": "2026-05-14T07:16:23", "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "analyses": [ { "match": "Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "19:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "probabilites": { "p_estimee": 0.65, "p_marche_num": 0.599, "p_finale_num": 0.635 }, "stats_comparatives": { "marche": "OU_BUTS", "selection": "Under 3.5", "cote": 1.67, "edge_num": 0.036 }, "raisonnement": "Real Madrid prive de 6 titulaires offensifs (Rodrygo, Valverde, Guler, Mendy, Militao, Ceballos). Oviedo (promu Segunda) defensif en bloc bas. Scores types attendus: 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-0 — tous sous 3.5. Edge +3.6% sur ligne 3.5 Under cote 1.67." }, { "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Gauff, Coco", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 1000 Rome", "heure": "13:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 0, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "probabilites": { "p_estimee": 0.72, "p_marche_num": 0.673, "p_finale_num": 0.706 }, "stats_comparatives": { "marche": "ML", "selection": "Coco Gauff", "cote": 1.41, "edge_num": 0.033 }, "raisonnement": "Gauff (Top 3 WTA) face a Cirstea (35 ans, fin de carriere, classee hors top 100). Ecart de niveau majeur sur clay Rome. Gauff polyvalente et superieure dans tous les compartiments (service, retour, deplacement)." }, { "match": "Swiatek, Iga vs Svitolina, Elina", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 1000 Rome", "heure": "18:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "probabilites": { "p_estimee": 0.72, "p_marche_num": 0.602, "p_finale_num": 0.685 }, "stats_comparatives": { "marche": "SPREAD_SETS", "selection": "Swiatek -1.5 sets (2-0)", "cote": 1.66, "edge_num": 0.083 }, "raisonnement": "Swiatek reine du clay (4x Roland-Garros), domine Svitolina sur terre battue. Match en 2 sets attendu : Swiatek ferme les matches sur clay sans bavure contre Top 30. Spread -1.5 sets = 2-0 sec. Edge +8.3%." }, { "match": "Salkova, Dominika vs Osorio, Camila", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "09:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE", "probabilites": { "p_estimee": 0.62, "p_marche_num": 0.581, "p_finale_num": 0.608 }, "stats_comparatives": { "marche": "SPREAD_GAMES", "selection": "Salkova +5.5 games", "cote": 1.72, "edge_num": 0.027 }, "raisonnement": "Osorio clay specialist solide (top 50-100), favori legitime 1.23. Salkova jeune CZE en progression. Spread +5.5 = Salkova competitif (ne perd pas par >5 jeux). Scores plausibles 6-3 6-3, 6-4 6-3 tous couvrent le spread. Edge +2.7%." }, { "match": "Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons", "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "heure": "23:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": true, "raison_no_bet": null, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "probabilites": { "p_estimee": 0.65, "p_marche_num": 0.637, "p_finale_num": 0.646 }, "stats_comparatives": { "marche": "ML", "selection": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "cote": 1.57, "edge_num": 0.009 }, "raisonnement": "Playoffs NBA mai 2026. Cavs top seed Est en saison reguliere 2025-26, avantage home court substantiel (+3 a +5 pts). Pistons jeune equipe en progression mais inferieur en experience playoff. p_finale 0.646 stable." }, { "match": "Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Marche La Liga milieu de tableau correctement evalue. DC 1X edge -7%, DC 12 edge -4%. Aucun spot p_finale ≥ seuil + edge positif.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Valencia 12e DLLWW, Rayo 8e DWDWW. Rayo legerement meilleure forme + classement, Valencia avantage domicile + defense decimee. p_finale toutes proches du marche." }, { "match": "Girona FC vs Real Sociedad", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Deux equipes en mauvaise forme. DC cotes 1.30 plancher mais edge negatif. DC X2 p_finale 0.562 PROBABLE marginal, edge +1.3% non-decisif.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Match fin de saison sans enjeu majeur. Absences importantes (ter Stegen, Oskarsson). Pas de conviction probabiliste." }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Rublev, Andrey", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "ML home 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1), ML away 15.00 > 3.00 (NO BET 1). Spread -1.5 home 1.17, Totals under 2.5 cote 1.16 — tous hors plage.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Sinner ecrasant favori a Rome 2026. Spreads/totals proches du marche, edges < 1%. Aucun spot exploitable v4.0." }, { "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Medvedev cote 1.36 p_finale 0.645 < p_marche 0.735 → edge -9%. Landaluce p_finale 0.355 < 0.55. Aucun spot publishable.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Medvedev historiquement faible sur clay, Landaluce jeune talent espagnol. Marche surcote Medvedev mais Landaluce pas assez probable." }, { "match": "Sasnovich, Aliaksandra vs Blinkova, Anna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Sasnovich ML p_finale 0.578 PROBABLE mais edge -11.6%. Blinkova p_finale 0.422 < 0.55. Conviction faible sans donnees fortes.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Sasnovich experimentee, Blinkova jeune. Marche favori Sas a 1.44 mais p_estimee 0.55 reflete incertitude. Pas de spot edge-positif." }, { "match": "Charaeva, Alina vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match equilibre (1.69/2.05) sans donnees contextuelles. p_estimee proche p_marche, p_finale insuffisante pour PROBABLE.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Charaeva jeune RUS, Korpatsch experimentee GER. Sans donnees fines, pas de conviction. NO BET prudence." }, { "match": "Keys, Madison vs Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "ML home 1.04 + away 8.20 hors plage. Spread games -6.5 p_finale 0.496 < 0.55. Totals games under 17.5 NO BET 3 declenche (edge < 9%).", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Keys (ex-Top 10) ecrase Q francaise. Marche structurellement hors range, NO BET 3 (OU jeux) bloquant." }, { "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Krejcikova ML cote 1.33 p_finale 0.699 ≈ p_marche 0.696. Edge +0.3% negligeable. Cote 1.33 sous le plancher.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Krejcikova ex-Top 10 face a Golubic. Sa presence en 125K eveille la suspicion (forme physique). NO BET prudence." }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Yastremska, Dayana", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "Match 50/50 (1.84/1.86). Aucun cote decalee, p_finale ne depasse pas 0.52. Trop equilibre pour conviction PROBABLE.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Sierra jeune ARG en hausse, Yastremska top 30 puncheur. Affrontement equilibre, lecture marche fiable." }, { "match": "Bandecchi, Susan vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "14:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "pari_retenu": false, "raison_no_bet": "ML home 4.50 + away 1.16 hors plage. Spread games +5.5 home p_finale 0.567 PROBABLE mais conviction faible.", "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET", "probabilites": {}, "stats_comparatives": {}, "raisonnement": "Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) clay specialist top 100 grosse favorite. Spread games marginal, NO BET prudence sur 125K." } ], "paris": [ { "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "ligue_canonique": "LIGA", "match": "Real Madrid vs Real Oviedo", "heure": "19:30", "marche": "Totals 3.5 Under", "marche_canonique": "OU_BUTS", "selection": "Under 3.5", "cote": 1.67, "cote_plancher": 1.63, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "p_estimee": 0.65, "probabilite_marche": "60%", "p_marche_num": 0.599, "p_finale_num": 0.635, "edge_num": 0.036, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4", "palier": "CONFIANT", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR", "raisonnement": "Real Madrid prive de 6 titulaires offensifs (Rodrygo, Valverde, Guler, Mendy, Militao, Ceballos). Oviedo (promu Segunda) defensif en bloc bas. Scores types attendus: 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 1-0 — tous sous 3.5. Edge +3.6% sur ligne 3.5 Under cote 1.67." }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 1000 Rome", "ligue_canonique": "WTA_M1000", "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Gauff, Coco", "heure": "13:00", "marche": "Match Winner", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Coco Gauff", "cote": 1.41, "cote_plancher": 1.46, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 0, "p_estimee": 0.72, "probabilite_marche": "71%", "p_marche_num": 0.673, "p_finale_num": 0.706, "edge_num": 0.033, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4", "palier": "CONFIANT", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR", "raisonnement": "Gauff (Top 3 WTA) face a Cirstea (35 ans, fin de carriere, classee hors top 100). Ecart de niveau majeur sur clay Rome. Gauff polyvalente et superieure dans tous les compartiments (service, retour, deplacement)." }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 1000 Rome", "ligue_canonique": "WTA_M1000", "match": "Swiatek, Iga vs Svitolina, Elina", "heure": "18:30", "marche": "Spread Sets (-1.5)", "marche_canonique": "SPREAD_SETS", "selection": "Swiatek -1.5 sets (2-0)", "cote": 1.66, "cote_plancher": 1.5, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "p_estimee": 0.72, "probabilite_marche": "60%", "p_marche_num": 0.602, "p_finale_num": 0.685, "edge_num": 0.083, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4", "palier": "CONFIANT", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR", "raisonnement": "Swiatek reine du clay (4x Roland-Garros), domine Svitolina sur terre battue. Match en 2 sets attendu : Swiatek ferme les matches sur clay sans bavure contre Top 30. Spread -1.5 sets = 2-0 sec. Edge +8.3%." }, { "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K", "match": "Salkova, Dominika vs Osorio, Camila", "heure": "09:00", "marche": "Spread Games (+5.5)", "marche_canonique": "SPREAD_GAMES", "selection": "Salkova +5.5 games", "cote": 1.72, "cote_plancher": 1.7, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "p_estimee": 0.62, "probabilite_marche": "58%", "p_marche_num": 0.581, "p_finale_num": 0.608, "edge_num": 0.027, "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE", "statut_v3": "PROBABLE_V4", "palier": "SOLIDE", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR", "raisonnement": "Osorio clay specialist solide (top 50-100), favori legitime 1.23. Salkova jeune CZE en progression. Spread +5.5 = Salkova competitif (ne perd pas par >5 jeux). Scores plausibles 6-3 6-3, 6-4 6-3 tous couvrent le spread. Edge +2.7%." }, { "sport": "basketball", "ligue": "NBA", "ligue_canonique": "NBA", "match": "Cleveland Cavaliers vs Detroit Pistons", "heure": "23:00", "marche": "Match Winner", "marche_canonique": "ML", "selection": "Cleveland Cavaliers", "cote": 1.57, "cote_plancher": 1.6, "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "p_estimee": 0.65, "probabilite_marche": "64%", "p_marche_num": 0.637, "p_finale_num": 0.646, "edge_num": 0.009, "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT", "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4", "palier": "CONFIANT", "mise_unites": "1u", "mise_euros": 10, "model_version": "4.0", "protocol_version": "4.0", "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR", "raisonnement": "Playoffs NBA mai 2026. Cavs top seed Est en saison reguliere 2025-26, avantage home court substantiel (+3 a +5 pts). Pistons jeune equipe en progression mais inferieur en experience playoff. p_finale 0.646 stable." } ], "no_bet": [ { "match": "Valencia CF vs Rayo Vallecano", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Marche La Liga milieu de tableau correctement evalue. DC 1X edge -7%, DC 12 edge -4%. Aucun spot p_finale ≥ seuil + edge positif.", "raisonnement": "Valencia 12e DLLWW, Rayo 8e DWDWW. Rayo legerement meilleure forme + classement, Valencia avantage domicile + defense decimee. p_finale toutes proches du marche." }, { "match": "Girona FC vs Real Sociedad", "sport": "football", "ligue": "La Liga", "heure": "18:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Deux equipes en mauvaise forme. DC cotes 1.30 plancher mais edge negatif. DC X2 p_finale 0.562 PROBABLE marginal, edge +1.3% non-decisif.", "raisonnement": "Match fin de saison sans enjeu majeur. Absences importantes (ter Stegen, Oskarsson). Pas de conviction probabiliste." }, { "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Rublev, Andrey", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 1, "raison": "ML home 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1), ML away 15.00 > 3.00 (NO BET 1). Spread -1.5 home 1.17, Totals under 2.5 cote 1.16 — tous hors plage.", "raisonnement": "Sinner ecrasant favori a Rome 2026. Spreads/totals proches du marche, edges < 1%. Aucun spot exploitable v4.0." }, { "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Medvedev, Daniil", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "ATP Rome", "heure": "17:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Medvedev cote 1.36 p_finale 0.645 < p_marche 0.735 → edge -9%. Landaluce p_finale 0.355 < 0.55. Aucun spot publishable.", "raisonnement": "Medvedev historiquement faible sur clay, Landaluce jeune talent espagnol. Marche surcote Medvedev mais Landaluce pas assez probable." }, { "match": "Sasnovich, Aliaksandra vs Blinkova, Anna", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Sasnovich ML p_finale 0.578 PROBABLE mais edge -11.6%. Blinkova p_finale 0.422 < 0.55. Conviction faible sans donnees fortes.", "raisonnement": "Sasnovich experimentee, Blinkova jeune. Marche favori Sas a 1.44 mais p_estimee 0.55 reflete incertitude. Pas de spot edge-positif." }, { "match": "Charaeva, Alina vs Korpatsch, Tamara", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "08:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Match equilibre (1.69/2.05) sans donnees contextuelles. p_estimee proche p_marche, p_finale insuffisante pour PROBABLE.", "raisonnement": "Charaeva jeune RUS, Korpatsch experimentee GER. Sans donnees fines, pas de conviction. NO BET prudence." }, { "match": "Keys, Madison vs Rakotomanga Rajaonah, Tiantsoa Sarah", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Paris", "heure": "11:00", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "ML home 1.04 + away 8.20 hors plage. Spread games -6.5 p_finale 0.496 < 0.55. Totals games under 17.5 NO BET 3 declenche (edge < 9%).", "raisonnement": "Keys (ex-Top 10) ecrase Q francaise. Marche structurellement hors range, NO BET 3 (OU jeux) bloquant." }, { "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Golubic, Viktorija", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "10:10", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Krejcikova ML cote 1.33 p_finale 0.699 ≈ p_marche 0.696. Edge +0.3% negligeable. Cote 1.33 sous le plancher.", "raisonnement": "Krejcikova ex-Top 10 face a Golubic. Sa presence en 125K eveille la suspicion (forme physique). NO BET prudence." }, { "match": "Sierra, Solana vs Yastremska, Dayana", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "11:20", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "Match 50/50 (1.84/1.86). Aucun cote decalee, p_finale ne depasse pas 0.52. Trop equilibre pour conviction PROBABLE.", "raisonnement": "Sierra jeune ARG en hausse, Yastremska top 30 puncheur. Affrontement equilibre, lecture marche fiable." }, { "match": "Bandecchi, Susan vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica", "sport": "tennis", "ligue": "WTA 125K Parma", "heure": "14:30", "dq_flag": "DQ-A", "chaos": 2, "raison": "ML home 4.50 + away 1.16 hors plage. Spread games +5.5 home p_finale 0.567 PROBABLE mais conviction faible.", "raisonnement": "Bouzas Maneiro (ESP) clay specialist top 100 grosse favorite. Spread games marginal, NO BET prudence sur 125K." } ], "resume": { "total_paris": 5, "repartition_niveaux": { "CERTAIN": 0, "CONFIANT": 4, "PROBABLE": 1 }, "exposition_totale_euros": 50, "exposition_totale_unites": "5u", "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": { "profit_net_euros": 30.3, "ROI_potentiel": "+60.6%" }, "calibration_attendue": { "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "65.6%", "details": "4xCONFIANT (p moy ~0.67) + 1xPROBABLE (p ~0.61) -> moyenne 0.656" } } }