{
  "date": "2026-05-21",
  "generated": "2026-05-21T07:17:47",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Kalinina, Anhelina vs Bondar, Anna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Kalinina, Anhelina",
        "p_finale": "68.3%",
        "p_marche": "59.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_ml",
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.68
      },
      "raisonnement": "Kalinina ultra-dominante sur terre en 2026 (27-5 !), 8/10 derniers, mene H2H 2-1. Bondar honnete (11-4 terre) mais nettement en dessous. Edge clair +8.7%, le meilleur spot du jour."
    },
    {
      "match": "Buse, Ignacio vs Humbert, Ugo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Buse, Ignacio",
        "p_finale": "77.2%",
        "p_marche": "75.2%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_ml",
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.33
      },
      "raisonnement": "Mismatch de surface net : Buse specialiste terre (5 titres, tous sur terre), grande forme (6-0 6-3 vs Mensik). Humbert mieux classe (#34) mais negatif sur terre (34-44, 0 titre terre). Le marche sous-estime l'ecart de surface."
    },
    {
      "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Munar, Jaume",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Navone, Mariano",
        "p_finale": "57.2%",
        "p_marche": "55.2%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_ml",
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.81
      },
      "raisonnement": "Navone en feu sur terre : 3 victoires d'affilee (Norrie, FAA a Rome), titre Bucharest. Munar 9-9, aucun titre ATP, sans set perdu cette semaine mais niveau inferieur. Leger value sur le favori logique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Darderi, Luciano vs de Minaur, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Darderi, Luciano",
        "p_finale": "55.5%",
        "p_marche": "49.8%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_ml",
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 2.01
      },
      "raisonnement": "Spot value contrarian : Darderi gros specialiste terre (4 titres ATP terre, SF Rome, 7/10 derniers sur terre) vs de Minaur faible sur terre (5/10, 0 titre terre, ~7 matchs terre avant Hambourg). Le marche price de Minaur favori sur le classement. Chaos 2 (de Minaur top niveau)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Michelsen, Alex vs Tien, Learner",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Michelsen, Alex",
        "p_finale": "55.1%",
        "p_marche": "50.8%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_ml",
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.97
      },
      "raisonnement": "Michelsen mene le H2H 3-1 (3-0 en format standard dont 1 sur terre, Houston 6-4 6-2). Tien negatif sur terre (11-13) malgre sa victoire sur Tsitsipas. Le marche favorise Tien (1.78) sur sa forme recente ; H2H + surface penchent Michelsen. Value contrarian."
    },
    {
      "match": "VFL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga Relegation (barrage)",
      "heure": "18:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DC home <1.30 indispo + ML edge ~negatif + 9 absents Wolfsburg + prudence match aller",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Barrage aller Bundesliga (16e) vs 2.Bundesliga (3e). Wolfsburg favori historique (6 derniers barrages gagnes par le club de 1.Bundesliga) mais 9 blessures lourdes (Arnold, Cleiton, Dardai, Fischer, Rogerio, Seelt, Wimmer, Wind) et prudence typique d'un match aller. DC home cotee <1.30, ML@1.74 edge insuffisant."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie Play-off Europe (demi)",
      "heure": "16:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "venue neutre (Volendam) + knockout sec + blessures Ajax + DC<1.30, ML p_finale ~0.56 fragile",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Demi-finale play-off europeen, match SEC a Volendam (venue NEUTRE — concert Harry Styles a l'Arena), donc pas de vrai avantage domicile. Ajax 5e mais ampute (Zinchenko, Sutalo, Wijndal...). Risque de nul/prolongation eleve, chaos 2. DC indispo (<1.30)."
    },
    {
      "match": "FC Utrecht vs SC Heerenveen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie Play-off Europe (demi)",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "ML p_finale 0.53 < 0.55 (PROBABLE) + risque nul knockout, DC<1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Demi play-off europeen, Utrecht a domicile mais ML@1.96 (p_finale ~0.53) sous le seuil PROBABLE. Knockout sec = risque de nul/prolongation. DC home <1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bouzkova, Marie vs Li, Ann",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "08:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "pas de favori net (1.81/1.93), p_finale < 0.55",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre sur terre (modele 50/50). Li en forme (battu Alexandrova), Bouzkova mene H2H 3-0 mais jamais sur terre. Aucun cote dans la zone fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cristian, Jaqueline vs Kasatkina, Daria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "09:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Cristian en feu sous-cotee",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kasatkina@1.60 (p_marche 0.625) mais Cristian n'a pas perdu un set (6-1 6-1 Kessler, Tauson) et a gagne leur dernier H2H 6-4 6-0. p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zhang, Shuai vs Navarro, Emma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Navarro@1.34 deja a son juste prix",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Navarro favorite (Zhang faible terre 3-7) mais cote 1.34 (p_marche 0.746) >= p_estimee. Edge ~0/negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Fernandez, Leylah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "15:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Mboko@1.55 sans marge",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Modele Mboko 57-64%, cote 1.55 (p_marche 0.645). p_finale ~0.61-0.64 -> edge ~0/negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Lamens, Suzan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Chwalinska tres favorite mais cote hors range [1.30-3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Stephens, Sloane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Stephens@1.57 rouillee (retour blessure)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Stephens favorite (sans set perdu en qualifs) mais retour de fracture, ex-#361. Romero solide sur terre (15-9). p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche 0.637."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kraus, Sinja vs Friedsam, Anna-Lena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.25 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kraus tete de serie tres favorite, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs Sakatsume, Himeno",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — match serre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Pridankina@1.51 (p_marche 0.662) mais pick en 3 sets (serre). p_finale ~0.59 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar vs Minnen, Greet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "p_finale 0.548 < 0.55 (PROBABLE)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sherif legere favorite (1.84) mais sous le seuil PROBABLE."
    },
    {
      "match": "Guo, Hanyu vs Costoulas, Sofia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge ~negatif — Costoulas@1.59 deja a son prix",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Costoulas favorite (sans set perdu) cotee 1.59 (p_marche 0.629). p_finale ~0.62 -> edge ~0."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Stoiana en forme sur terre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Krueger mieux classee (TS3) @1.38 mais Stoiana excellente sur terre (13-5). p_finale ~0.69 < p_marche 0.725."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Riera, Julia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Riera specialiste terre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Korneeva mieux classee @1.66 mais Riera enorme sur terre (24-10). p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche 0.602."
    },
    {
      "match": "Holmgren, August vs Diaz Acosta, Facundo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge ~0 + variance qualif — Diaz Acosta@1.32",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Diaz Acosta specialiste terre (23-8) tres favori (1.32, p_marche 0.758). Edge marginal (~0) et variance de qualif (BO3, Holmgren sans set perdu). NO BET discipline."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cecchinato, Marco vs Pellegrino, Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — derby italien coin-flip",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Pellegrino@1.44 (p_marche 0.694) mais derby tres serre entre 2 specialistes terre, Cecchinato 80 winners sans set perdu. p_finale ~0.61 -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "De Jong, Jesper vs Zheng, Michael",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Zheng emergent dangereux",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "De Jong@1.40 favori sur l'experience mais Zheng (Next Gen, a battu Korda a l'AO) sous-cote. p_finale ~0.68 < p_marche 0.714."
    },
    {
      "match": "Galarneau, Alexis vs Cina, Federico",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cina (talent Next Gen) tres favori, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Samuel, Toby vs Bueno, Gonzalo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge ~0, fragile qualif",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Samuel pick TT (serve edge) @1.72 mais Bueno specialiste terre sur terre. Edge marginal, qualif BO3 -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svrcina, Dalibor vs Faurel, Thomas",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.21 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Svrcina niveau superieur tres favori, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faria, Jaime vs Neumayer, Lukas",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "12:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees Neumayer manquantes [NON VERIFIE]",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Faria en forme (a battu Dimitrov en qualif) @1.82 mais forme de Neumayer introuvable -> impossible d'estimer p_estimee de facon fiable. Anti-hallucination -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paul, Tommy vs Altmaier, Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Paul hard-courter sur terre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Paul@1.43 (modele 65%, p_marche 0.699) mais c'est un joueur de dur ; Altmaier grinder terre (a surpris Shelton). p_finale ~0.665 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kovacevic, Aleksandar vs Ugo Carabelli, Camilo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — match serre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Ugo Carabelli@1.42 (p_marche 0.704, leger avantage terre, a battu Tiafoe) mais Kovacevic a stupefie FAA. p_finale ~0.63 -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Osorio, Camila vs Udvardy, Panna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Udvardy en forme (finaliste Bogota)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Osorio fiable terre @1.34 (p_marche 0.746) mais Udvardy recemment finaliste Bogota. p_finale ~0.71 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Marcinko, Petra vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — deux joueuses en difficulte",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bouzas TS2 @1.55 mais 5/10 derniers, Marcinko 6/10. Match serre sans favori fiable, pick en 3."
    },
    {
      "match": "Teichmann, Jil vs Kabbaj, Yasmine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.18 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Teichmann nettement favorite (modele 79%) mais cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Popyrin, Alexei vs Ruud, Casper",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.27 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Ruud specialiste terre, finaliste Rome, modele 74% @1.27 — cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech, Arthur vs Bublik, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "17:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — Bublik volatil sur terre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bublik@1.49 (p_marche 0.671) jamais passe le 1er tour a Geneve sur terre ; Rinderknech 5/10 derniers perdus. Trop incertain, p_finale ~0.62 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA Playoffs (ECF G2)",
      "heure": "00:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "ML hors marche NBA autorise ; ATS -5.5 edge ~0 + variance match unique playoff",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ECF Game 2 @ MSG, Knicks menent 1-0 (G1 115-104), 7 victoires d'affilee, ORtg ~130.5, +24.5 differentiel. Mais NBA n'autorise que OU/ATS : ATS Knicks -5.5@1.78 -> p_finale ~0.56, edge ~0 (variance match unique). OU 217.5 incertain (G1=219, Cavs rythme lent vs Knicks chauds). NO BET discipline."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_250",
      "match": "Kalinina, Anhelina vs Bondar, Anna",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Kalinina, Anhelina",
      "cote": 1.68,
      "cote_prise": 1.68,
      "cote_plancher": 1.509,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.72,
      "probabilite_marche": "59.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.595,
      "p_finale": 0.683,
      "p_finale_num": 0.683,
      "edge": 0.087,
      "edge_num": 0.087,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Kalinina ultra-dominante sur terre en 2026 (27-5 !), 8/10 derniers, mene H2H 2-1. Bondar honnete (11-4 terre) mais nettement en dessous. Edge clair +8.7%, le meilleur spot du jour."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_500",
      "match": "Buse, Ignacio vs Humbert, Ugo",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Buse, Ignacio",
      "cote": 1.33,
      "cote_prise": 1.33,
      "cote_plancher": 1.331,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "75.2%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.752,
      "p_finale": 0.772,
      "p_finale_num": 0.772,
      "edge": 0.02,
      "edge_num": 0.02,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Mismatch de surface net : Buse specialiste terre (5 titres, tous sur terre), grande forme (6-0 6-3 vs Mensik). Humbert mieux classe (#34) mais negatif sur terre (34-44, 0 titre terre). Le marche sous-estime l'ecart de surface."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_250",
      "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Munar, Jaume",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Navone, Mariano",
      "cote": 1.81,
      "cote_prise": 1.81,
      "cote_plancher": 1.812,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.58,
      "probabilite_marche": "55.2%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.552,
      "p_finale": 0.572,
      "p_finale_num": 0.572,
      "edge": 0.019,
      "edge_num": 0.019,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "palier": "SOLIDE",
      "statut_v3": "PROBABLE_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Navone en feu sur terre : 3 victoires d'affilee (Norrie, FAA a Rome), titre Bucharest. Munar 9-9, aucun titre ATP, sans set perdu cette semaine mais niveau inferieur. Leger value sur le favori logique."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_500",
      "match": "Darderi, Luciano vs de Minaur, Alex",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Darderi, Luciano",
      "cote": 2.01,
      "cote_prise": 2.01,
      "cote_plancher": 1.868,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.58,
      "probabilite_marche": "49.8%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.498,
      "p_finale": 0.555,
      "p_finale_num": 0.555,
      "edge": 0.058,
      "edge_num": 0.058,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "palier": "SOLIDE",
      "statut_v3": "PROBABLE_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Spot value contrarian : Darderi gros specialiste terre (4 titres ATP terre, SF Rome, 7/10 derniers sur terre) vs de Minaur faible sur terre (5/10, 0 titre terre, ~7 matchs terre avant Hambourg). Le marche price de Minaur favori sur le classement. Chaos 2 (de Minaur top niveau)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_250",
      "match": "Michelsen, Alex vs Tien, Learner",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Michelsen, Alex",
      "cote": 1.97,
      "cote_prise": 1.97,
      "cote_plancher": 1.882,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.57,
      "probabilite_marche": "50.8%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.508,
      "p_finale": 0.551,
      "p_finale_num": 0.551,
      "edge": 0.044,
      "edge_num": 0.044,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "palier": "SOLIDE",
      "statut_v3": "PROBABLE_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1u",
      "mise_euros": 10,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Michelsen mene le H2H 3-1 (3-0 en format standard dont 1 sur terre, Houston 6-4 6-2). Tien negatif sur terre (11-13) malgre sa victoire sur Tsitsipas. Le marche favorise Tien (1.78) sur sa forme recente ; H2H + surface penchent Michelsen. Value contrarian."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "VFL Wolfsburg vs SC Paderborn 07",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Bundesliga Relegation (barrage)",
      "heure": "18:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DC home <1.30 indispo + ML edge ~negatif + 9 absents Wolfsburg + prudence match aller",
      "raisonnement": "Barrage aller Bundesliga (16e) vs 2.Bundesliga (3e). Wolfsburg favori historique (6 derniers barrages gagnes par le club de 1.Bundesliga) mais 9 blessures lourdes (Arnold, Cleiton, Dardai, Fischer, Rogerio, Seelt, Wimmer, Wind) et prudence typique d'un match aller. DC home cotee <1.30, ML@1.74 edge insuffisant."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ajax Amsterdam vs FC Groningen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie Play-off Europe (demi)",
      "heure": "16:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "venue neutre (Volendam) + knockout sec + blessures Ajax + DC<1.30, ML p_finale ~0.56 fragile",
      "raisonnement": "Demi-finale play-off europeen, match SEC a Volendam (venue NEUTRE — concert Harry Styles a l'Arena), donc pas de vrai avantage domicile. Ajax 5e mais ampute (Zinchenko, Sutalo, Wijndal...). Risque de nul/prolongation eleve, chaos 2. DC indispo (<1.30)."
    },
    {
      "match": "FC Utrecht vs SC Heerenveen",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Eredivisie Play-off Europe (demi)",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "ML p_finale 0.53 < 0.55 (PROBABLE) + risque nul knockout, DC<1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Demi play-off europeen, Utrecht a domicile mais ML@1.96 (p_finale ~0.53) sous le seuil PROBABLE. Knockout sec = risque de nul/prolongation. DC home <1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bouzkova, Marie vs Li, Ann",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "08:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "pas de favori net (1.81/1.93), p_finale < 0.55",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre sur terre (modele 50/50). Li en forme (battu Alexandrova), Bouzkova mene H2H 3-0 mais jamais sur terre. Aucun cote dans la zone fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cristian, Jaqueline vs Kasatkina, Daria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "09:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Cristian en feu sous-cotee",
      "raisonnement": "Kasatkina@1.60 (p_marche 0.625) mais Cristian n'a pas perdu un set (6-1 6-1 Kessler, Tauson) et a gagne leur dernier H2H 6-4 6-0. p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zhang, Shuai vs Navarro, Emma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Navarro@1.34 deja a son juste prix",
      "raisonnement": "Navarro favorite (Zhang faible terre 3-7) mais cote 1.34 (p_marche 0.746) >= p_estimee. Edge ~0/negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Fernandez, Leylah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Strasbourg (250)",
      "heure": "15:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Mboko@1.55 sans marge",
      "raisonnement": "Modele Mboko 57-64%, cote 1.55 (p_marche 0.645). p_finale ~0.61-0.64 -> edge ~0/negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Lamens, Suzan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Chwalinska tres favorite mais cote hors range [1.30-3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Stephens, Sloane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Stephens@1.57 rouillee (retour blessure)",
      "raisonnement": "Stephens favorite (sans set perdu en qualifs) mais retour de fracture, ex-#361. Romero solide sur terre (15-9). p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche 0.637."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kraus, Sinja vs Friedsam, Anna-Lena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.25 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Kraus tete de serie tres favorite, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs Sakatsume, Himeno",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — match serre",
      "raisonnement": "Pridankina@1.51 (p_marche 0.662) mais pick en 3 sets (serre). p_finale ~0.59 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar vs Minnen, Greet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "p_finale 0.548 < 0.55 (PROBABLE)",
      "raisonnement": "Sherif legere favorite (1.84) mais sous le seuil PROBABLE."
    },
    {
      "match": "Guo, Hanyu vs Costoulas, Sofia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge ~negatif — Costoulas@1.59 deja a son prix",
      "raisonnement": "Costoulas favorite (sans set perdu) cotee 1.59 (p_marche 0.629). p_finale ~0.62 -> edge ~0."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Stoiana en forme sur terre",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger mieux classee (TS3) @1.38 mais Stoiana excellente sur terre (13-5). p_finale ~0.69 < p_marche 0.725."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Riera, Julia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Riera specialiste terre",
      "raisonnement": "Korneeva mieux classee @1.66 mais Riera enorme sur terre (24-10). p_finale ~0.59 < p_marche 0.602."
    },
    {
      "match": "Holmgren, August vs Diaz Acosta, Facundo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge ~0 + variance qualif — Diaz Acosta@1.32",
      "raisonnement": "Diaz Acosta specialiste terre (23-8) tres favori (1.32, p_marche 0.758). Edge marginal (~0) et variance de qualif (BO3, Holmgren sans set perdu). NO BET discipline."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cecchinato, Marco vs Pellegrino, Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — derby italien coin-flip",
      "raisonnement": "Pellegrino@1.44 (p_marche 0.694) mais derby tres serre entre 2 specialistes terre, Cecchinato 80 winners sans set perdu. p_finale ~0.61 -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "De Jong, Jesper vs Zheng, Michael",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Zheng emergent dangereux",
      "raisonnement": "De Jong@1.40 favori sur l'experience mais Zheng (Next Gen, a battu Korda a l'AO) sous-cote. p_finale ~0.68 < p_marche 0.714."
    },
    {
      "match": "Galarneau, Alexis vs Cina, Federico",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cina (talent Next Gen) tres favori, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Samuel, Toby vs Bueno, Gonzalo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge ~0, fragile qualif",
      "raisonnement": "Samuel pick TT (serve edge) @1.72 mais Bueno specialiste terre sur terre. Edge marginal, qualif BO3 -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svrcina, Dalibor vs Faurel, Thomas",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "11:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.21 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Svrcina niveau superieur tres favori, cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faria, Jaime vs Neumayer, Lukas",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros (qualifs)",
      "heure": "12:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees Neumayer manquantes [NON VERIFIE]",
      "raisonnement": "Faria en forme (a battu Dimitrov en qualif) @1.82 mais forme de Neumayer introuvable -> impossible d'estimer p_estimee de facon fiable. Anti-hallucination -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paul, Tommy vs Altmaier, Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Paul hard-courter sur terre",
      "raisonnement": "Paul@1.43 (modele 65%, p_marche 0.699) mais c'est un joueur de dur ; Altmaier grinder terre (a surpris Shelton). p_finale ~0.665 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kovacevic, Aleksandar vs Ugo Carabelli, Camilo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Hamburg (500)",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — match serre",
      "raisonnement": "Ugo Carabelli@1.42 (p_marche 0.704, leger avantage terre, a battu Tiafoe) mais Kovacevic a stupefie FAA. p_finale ~0.63 -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Osorio, Camila vs Udvardy, Panna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Udvardy en forme (finaliste Bogota)",
      "raisonnement": "Osorio fiable terre @1.34 (p_marche 0.746) mais Udvardy recemment finaliste Bogota. p_finale ~0.71 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Marcinko, Petra vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — deux joueuses en difficulte",
      "raisonnement": "Bouzas TS2 @1.55 mais 5/10 derniers, Marcinko 6/10. Match serre sans favori fiable, pick en 3."
    },
    {
      "match": "Teichmann, Jil vs Kabbaj, Yasmine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Rabat (Maroc)",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.18 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Teichmann nettement favorite (modele 79%) mais cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Popyrin, Alexei vs Ruud, Casper",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.27 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Ruud specialiste terre, finaliste Rome, modele 74% @1.27 — cote hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech, Arthur vs Bublik, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Geneva (250)",
      "heure": "17:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif — Bublik volatil sur terre",
      "raisonnement": "Bublik@1.49 (p_marche 0.671) jamais passe le 1er tour a Geneve sur terre ; Rinderknech 5/10 derniers perdus. Trop incertain, p_finale ~0.62 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "New York Knicks vs Cleveland Cavaliers",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA Playoffs (ECF G2)",
      "heure": "00:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "ML hors marche NBA autorise ; ATS -5.5 edge ~0 + variance match unique playoff",
      "raisonnement": "ECF Game 2 @ MSG, Knicks menent 1-0 (G1 115-104), 7 victoires d'affilee, ORtg ~130.5, +24.5 differentiel. Mais NBA n'autorise que OU/ATS : ATS Knicks -5.5@1.78 -> p_finale ~0.56, edge ~0 (variance match unique). OU 217.5 incertain (G1=219, Cavs rythme lent vs Knicks chauds). NO BET discipline."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 5,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 1,
      "PROBABLE": 3
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 50,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 38.0,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+76.0%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "62.7%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN + 1xCONFIANT + 3xPROBABLE -> p_finale moyenne 0.627"
    },
    "inventaire": {
      "matchs_avec_cotes": 35,
      "filtres_phase2_cote_hors_range": 6,
      "analyses_detail": 35,
      "no_bet": 30
    }
  }
}