{
  "date": "2026-05-26",
  "generated": "2026-05-26T07:19:21",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Ofner, Sebastian vs Darderi, Luciano",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Darderi, Luciano",
        "p_finale": "77.9%",
        "p_marche": "75.2%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+2.7%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Darderi est un specialiste terre confirme: 16-8 en 2026, 58-28 en carriere, 5 titres ATP terre (dont Santiago 2026) et une demi-finale Masters 1000 a Rome. Face a lui Ofner traverse une saison catastrophique (2 victoires ATP en 2026, chute au 112e rang). Le marche price Darderi a 75.2%; le gouffre de niveau et de forme sur la surface de predilection de Darderi justifie une p superieure (0.79). p_finale 0.779, edge +2.7%. Chaos 1 (terre, pas de blessure signalee)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Navarro, Emma vs Tjen, Janice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Navarro, Emma",
        "p_finale": "77.2%",
        "p_marche": "75.2%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+2.0%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Navarro est relancee: titre a Strasbourg (1er titre sur terre, victoire en finale vs Mboko), 5 victoires consecutives, retour dans le top 30. Tjen est moins imposante physiquement et plutot a l'aise sur surfaces rapides, peu adaptee a l'ocre. Avantage net Navarro sur terre. Marche 75.2%, p_estimee 0.78 (leger discount pour un possible contrecoup post-titre). p_finale 0.772, edge +2.0%. Chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Noskova, Linda vs Sakkari, Maria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Noskova, Linda",
        "p_finale": "75.3%",
        "p_marche": "71.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+3.9%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Noskova (TS12) arrive en confiance: QF Stuttgart ET Madrid sur terre (1ere victoire vs Gauff), 2 victoires a Rome, 6/10 sur ses derniers matchs. Sakkari est en grande difficulte (3 victoires sur 10 derniers) et surtout eliminee au 1er tour de RG trois annees de suite. Noskova dicte le rythme sur terre. Marche 71.4%, p_estimee 0.77. p_finale 0.753, edge +3.9% (le meilleur edge du jour). Chaos 1 (Sakkari peut etre erratique mais profil RG defavorable)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Li, Ann vs Zhang, Shuai",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Li, Ann",
        "p_finale": "76.0%",
        "p_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+2.4%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Ann Li en forme (demi-finale Strasbourg, 7-4 sur terre en 2026) mene le H2H 2-0 dont une victoire recente a l'Open d'Italie. Zhang Shuai est au-dela de son meilleur niveau et en difficulte physique dans les longs echanges. Meilleure relanceuse et meilleur deplacement pour Li. Marche 73.5%, p_estimee 0.77. p_finale 0.760, edge +2.4%. Chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Eala, Alexandra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Jovic, Iva",
        "p_finale": "74.6%",
        "p_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+1.0%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Jovic (TS17) realise une saison de percee: QF Open d'Australie, demi-finale a Charleston SUR TERRE, 21-10 en 2026, plus haut classement 16e. Sa premiere frappe est plus tranchante et son poids offensif superieur; Eala (talentueuse mais saison terre modeste) peine a adapter son jeu a l'ocre. Marche 73.5%, p_estimee 0.75. p_finale 0.746, edge +1.0% (mince). Chaos 1. CONFIANT (Eala dangereuse, on ne monte pas en CERTAIN)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Siniakova, Katerina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Siniakova, Katerina",
        "p_finale": "70.5%",
        "p_marche": "69.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "edge": "+1.1%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Siniakova (36e, favorite -250) possede une variete et un savoir-faire terre tres superieurs; elle peut casser le rythme de Waltert (93e) qui peine justement face aux changements de rythme. Le match-up de styles est favorable. Reserve: la regularite en simple de Siniakova est inconstante (profil davantage double), d'ou chaos 2. Marche 69.4%, p_estimee 0.71. p_finale 0.705, edge +1.1%. CONFIANT."
    },
    {
      "match": "Popyrin, Alexei vs Svajda, Zachary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.10 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Popyrin tres court a 1.10, marche sans valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tabilo, Alejandro vs Majchrzak, Kamil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.23 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tabilo gaucher a l'aise sur terre face a Majchrzak gene par une blessure au genou, mais cote sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cilic, Marin vs Kouame, Moise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cilic experimente et frappe lourde, mais a 1.29 sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Griekspoor, Tallon vs Arnaldi, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Arnaldi favori a 1.75",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Arnaldi leger favori terre (1.75) mais zone ML non rentable n=90."
    },
    {
      "match": "Walton, Adam vs Medvedev, Daniil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Medvedev archi-favori a 1.03, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Diaz Acosta, Facundo vs Zhang, Zhizhen",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-3.1% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Diaz Acosta favori a 1.44 (marche 69.4%) mais les modeles le donnent a 63-65%: p_estimee 0.65 < p_marche 0.694, edge negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — match equilibre sur terre, cote 1.33 trop courte",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Landaluce favori sur le papier (1.33, marche 75.2%) mais le match est decrit comme equilibre: Prado Angelo 15-8 sur terre et qualifie en forme. p_estimee ~0.60 << marche, edge fortement negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faurel, Thomas vs Vacherot, Valentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.14 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Vacherot grand favori (1.14) mais retour de blessure + cote sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kopriva, Vit vs Moutet, Corentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Moutet favori a 1.56",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Moutet favori a domicile (1.56) mais zone ML non rentable; saison terre decevante 3-6."
    },
    {
      "match": "Norrie, Cameron vs Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Vallejo favori a 1.81",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cotes serrees, favori a 1.81 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Muller, Alexandre vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.16 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tsitsipas favori a 1.16, sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Garin, Cristian vs Tien, Learner",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Tien favori a 1.60",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tien en confiance (titre Geneve) mais cote 1.60 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Baez, Sebastian vs Burruchaga, Roman Andres",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Baez favori a 1.71",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Baez specialiste terre mais forme recente moyenne; cote 1.71 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bublik, Alexander vs Struff, Jan-Lennard",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bublik favori a 1.28; de plus Struff mene 2-0 sur terre en H2H. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Quinn, Ethan vs Comesana, Francisco",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Comesana favori a 1.65",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Comesana favori (1.65) mais saison 2026 difficile; hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fearnley, Jacob vs Cerundolo, Juan Manuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cerundolo (meilleure surface terre, vainqueur Bordeaux) favori a 1.24, sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faria, Jaime vs Shapovalov, Denis",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Faria favori a 1.62",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Faria leger avantage de forme (1.62) mais bilan terre ATP faible; hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Altmaier, Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "FAA favori a 1.29 mais campagne terre en panne + Altmaier dangereux floater (H2H 2-2). NO BET 1 et chaos 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Tabur, Clement",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.01 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sinner archi-favori (1.01), aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Liu, Claire vs Uchijima, Moyuka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Liu favorite a 1.70",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Liu en grande forme (qualifs ecrasees) mais cote 1.70 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Tubello, Alice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif — forme Vekic faible, cote 1.31 trop courte",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Vekic favorite par l'experience (1.31, marche 76.3%) mais forme 2026 tres faible sur terre (sortie 1er tour qualifs Madrid). p_estimee ~0.745 < p_marche, edge negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.04 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sabalenka archi-favorite (1.04)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fruhvirtova, Linda vs Jacquemot, Elsa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Jacquemot favorite a 1.78",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match serre; favorite a 1.78 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Siegemund, Laura vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Osaka favorite a 1.29 (sous plancher); de plus Siegemund a un meilleur % carriere terre. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Galfi, Dalma vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Galfi favorite a 1.68",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sherif en regain en qualifs; favorite Galfi 1.68 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruzic, Antonia vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Krueger favorite a 1.55",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Krueger meilleure joueuse de fond de court; cote 1.55 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalinina, Anhelina vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "blessure (abandon en finale a Rabat) + edge negatif — incertitude physique",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kalinina favorite a 1.39 et mene le H2H 3-1, mais ABANDON en finale a Rabat quelques jours avant RG: incertitude physique majeure -> p discountee sous le marche, chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Boisson, Lois",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Kalinskaya favorite a 1.56",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kalinskaya favorite sur le papier (1.56) mais Boisson demi-finaliste surprise RG 2025 portee par le public; hors zone rentable + chaos 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Keys, Madison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Keys archi-favorite (1.11) malgre un doute physique evoque; NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Cocciaretto, Elisabetta",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "probleme physique Cocciaretto + edge negatif",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cocciaretto favorite (1.47, marche 68.0%) mais probleme physique apres Rome et arret d'entrainement signale; Korneeva debutante a haute variance. p_estimee ~0.64 < marche, edge negatif + chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Townsend, Taylor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Gauff tenante du titre archi-favorite (1.11)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs Oliynykova, Oleksandra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Oliynykova favorite a 1.50",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Oliynykova favorite (1.50, exactement au seuil): NO BET 10 (>= 1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Birrell, Kimberly vs Pegula, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Pegula archi-favorite (1.02), Birrell en serie noire."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Bartunkova, Nikola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Mboko top 10 favorite a 1.28 (sous plancher) + galeres physiques recurrentes signalees. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "AS Saint-Etienne vs OGC Nice",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Ligue 1",
      "heure": "18:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "aucune selection >= 0.55 — cotes DC indisponibles, OU sans donnees buts/xG fiables, pricing atypique",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML H 2.36 / N 3.50 / A 3.00: aucune issue 1X2 n'atteint 0.55 (St-Etienne 0.42, nul 0.29, Nice 0.33). Les cotes Double Chance (marche prefere) ne sont pas disponibles dans le flux. L'Under 2.75 (1.78, marche 56%) manque de support (pas de donnees buts/xG, modele faible). Pricing atypique: l'equipe 17e est favorite a domicile (2.36) face a la 4e (3.00) -> contexte de fin de saison incertain -> chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "OU Over 217.5: incertitude blessure (Jalen Williams day-to-day) + variance serie (G4=185), p_finale 0.55 fragile",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Finale Conf. Ouest G5, serie 2-2. Projection totale 222 (moyenne serie) vs ligne 217.5 -> lean Over (3 des 4 matchs > 217.5). MAIS Jalen Williams, 2e option offensive d'OKC, est day-to-day et son statut ne sera confirme que ~2h avant un tip-off a +19h: son absence ferait chuter le total de ~8-10 pts. G4 fut un duel defensif (185). Incertitude trop elevee pour un OU (chaos 2), p_finale honnete ~0.54 sous le seuil PROBABLE 0.55. NO BET. (ATS OKC -5.5 ecarte: marges de serie tres volatiles +9/-7/+15/-21.)"
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "match": "Ofner, Sebastian vs Darderi, Luciano",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Darderi, Luciano",
      "cote": 1.33,
      "cote_prise": 1.33,
      "cote_plancher": 1.318,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.79,
      "probabilite_marche": "75.2%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.752,
      "p_finale": 0.779,
      "p_finale_num": 0.779,
      "edge": 0.027,
      "edge_num": 0.027,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Darderi est un specialiste terre confirme: 16-8 en 2026, 58-28 en carriere, 5 titres ATP terre (dont Santiago 2026) et une demi-finale Masters 1000 a Rome. Face a lui Ofner traverse une saison catastrophique (2 victoires ATP en 2026, chute au 112e rang). Le marche price Darderi a 75.2%; le gouffre de niveau et de forme sur la surface de predilection de Darderi justifie une p superieure (0.79). p_finale 0.779, edge +2.7%. Chaos 1 (terre, pas de blessure signalee)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Navarro, Emma vs Tjen, Janice",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Navarro, Emma",
      "cote": 1.33,
      "cote_prise": 1.33,
      "cote_plancher": 1.331,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "75.2%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.752,
      "p_finale": 0.772,
      "p_finale_num": 0.772,
      "edge": 0.02,
      "edge_num": 0.02,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Navarro est relancee: titre a Strasbourg (1er titre sur terre, victoire en finale vs Mboko), 5 victoires consecutives, retour dans le top 30. Tjen est moins imposante physiquement et plutot a l'aise sur surfaces rapides, peu adaptee a l'ocre. Avantage net Navarro sur terre. Marche 75.2%, p_estimee 0.78 (leger discount pour un possible contrecoup post-titre). p_finale 0.772, edge +2.0%. Chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Noskova, Linda vs Sakkari, Maria",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Noskova, Linda",
      "cote": 1.4,
      "cote_prise": 1.4,
      "cote_plancher": 1.364,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.77,
      "probabilite_marche": "71.4%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.714,
      "p_finale": 0.753,
      "p_finale_num": 0.753,
      "edge": 0.039,
      "edge_num": 0.039,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Noskova (TS12) arrive en confiance: QF Stuttgart ET Madrid sur terre (1ere victoire vs Gauff), 2 victoires a Rome, 6/10 sur ses derniers matchs. Sakkari est en grande difficulte (3 victoires sur 10 derniers) et surtout eliminee au 1er tour de RG trois annees de suite. Noskova dicte le rythme sur terre. Marche 71.4%, p_estimee 0.77. p_finale 0.753, edge +3.9% (le meilleur edge du jour). Chaos 1 (Sakkari peut etre erratique mais profil RG defavorable)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Li, Ann vs Zhang, Shuai",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Li, Ann",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_prise": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.352,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.77,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.735,
      "p_finale": 0.76,
      "p_finale_num": 0.76,
      "edge": 0.024,
      "edge_num": 0.024,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Ann Li en forme (demi-finale Strasbourg, 7-4 sur terre en 2026) mene le H2H 2-0 dont une victoire recente a l'Open d'Italie. Zhang Shuai est au-dela de son meilleur niveau et en difficulte physique dans les longs echanges. Meilleure relanceuse et meilleur deplacement pour Li. Marche 73.5%, p_estimee 0.77. p_finale 0.760, edge +2.4%. Chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Eala, Alexandra",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Jovic, Iva",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_prise": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.378,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.75,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.735,
      "p_finale": 0.746,
      "p_finale_num": 0.746,
      "edge": 0.01,
      "edge_num": 0.01,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Jovic (TS17) realise une saison de percee: QF Open d'Australie, demi-finale a Charleston SUR TERRE, 21-10 en 2026, plus haut classement 16e. Sa premiere frappe est plus tranchante et son poids offensif superieur; Eala (talentueuse mais saison terre modeste) peine a adapter son jeu a l'ocre. Marche 73.5%, p_estimee 0.75. p_finale 0.746, edge +1.0% (mince). Chaos 1. CONFIANT (Eala dangereuse, on ne monte pas en CERTAIN)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Siniakova, Katerina",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Siniakova, Katerina",
      "cote": 1.44,
      "cote_prise": 1.44,
      "cote_plancher": 1.459,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.71,
      "probabilite_marche": "69.4%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.694,
      "p_finale": 0.705,
      "p_finale_num": 0.705,
      "edge": 0.011,
      "edge_num": 0.011,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "R1 Roland Garros, terre. Siniakova (36e, favorite -250) possede une variete et un savoir-faire terre tres superieurs; elle peut casser le rythme de Waltert (93e) qui peine justement face aux changements de rythme. Le match-up de styles est favorable. Reserve: la regularite en simple de Siniakova est inconstante (profil davantage double), d'ou chaos 2. Marche 69.4%, p_estimee 0.71. p_finale 0.705, edge +1.1%. CONFIANT."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Popyrin, Alexei vs Svajda, Zachary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.10 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Popyrin tres court a 1.10, marche sans valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tabilo, Alejandro vs Majchrzak, Kamil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.23 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Tabilo gaucher a l'aise sur terre face a Majchrzak gene par une blessure au genou, mais cote sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cilic, Marin vs Kouame, Moise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cilic experimente et frappe lourde, mais a 1.29 sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Griekspoor, Tallon vs Arnaldi, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Arnaldi favori a 1.75",
      "raisonnement": "Arnaldi leger favori terre (1.75) mais zone ML non rentable n=90."
    },
    {
      "match": "Walton, Adam vs Medvedev, Daniil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Medvedev archi-favori a 1.03, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Diaz Acosta, Facundo vs Zhang, Zhizhen",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-3.1% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Diaz Acosta favori a 1.44 (marche 69.4%) mais les modeles le donnent a 63-65%: p_estimee 0.65 < p_marche 0.694, edge negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Prado Angelo, Juan Carlos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — match equilibre sur terre, cote 1.33 trop courte",
      "raisonnement": "Landaluce favori sur le papier (1.33, marche 75.2%) mais le match est decrit comme equilibre: Prado Angelo 15-8 sur terre et qualifie en forme. p_estimee ~0.60 << marche, edge fortement negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faurel, Thomas vs Vacherot, Valentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.14 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Vacherot grand favori (1.14) mais retour de blessure + cote sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kopriva, Vit vs Moutet, Corentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Moutet favori a 1.56",
      "raisonnement": "Moutet favori a domicile (1.56) mais zone ML non rentable; saison terre decevante 3-6."
    },
    {
      "match": "Norrie, Cameron vs Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Vallejo favori a 1.81",
      "raisonnement": "Cotes serrees, favori a 1.81 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Muller, Alexandre vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.16 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Tsitsipas favori a 1.16, sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Garin, Cristian vs Tien, Learner",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Tien favori a 1.60",
      "raisonnement": "Tien en confiance (titre Geneve) mais cote 1.60 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Baez, Sebastian vs Burruchaga, Roman Andres",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Baez favori a 1.71",
      "raisonnement": "Baez specialiste terre mais forme recente moyenne; cote 1.71 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bublik, Alexander vs Struff, Jan-Lennard",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Bublik favori a 1.28; de plus Struff mene 2-0 sur terre en H2H. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Quinn, Ethan vs Comesana, Francisco",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Comesana favori a 1.65",
      "raisonnement": "Comesana favori (1.65) mais saison 2026 difficile; hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fearnley, Jacob vs Cerundolo, Juan Manuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cerundolo (meilleure surface terre, vainqueur Bordeaux) favori a 1.24, sous plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Faria, Jaime vs Shapovalov, Denis",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Faria favori a 1.62",
      "raisonnement": "Faria leger avantage de forme (1.62) mais bilan terre ATP faible; hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Altmaier, Daniel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "FAA favori a 1.29 mais campagne terre en panne + Altmaier dangereux floater (H2H 2-2). NO BET 1 et chaos 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Tabur, Clement",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.01 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Sinner archi-favori (1.01), aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Liu, Claire vs Uchijima, Moyuka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Liu favorite a 1.70",
      "raisonnement": "Liu en grande forme (qualifs ecrasees) mais cote 1.70 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Tubello, Alice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif — forme Vekic faible, cote 1.31 trop courte",
      "raisonnement": "Vekic favorite par l'experience (1.31, marche 76.3%) mais forme 2026 tres faible sur terre (sortie 1er tour qualifs Madrid). p_estimee ~0.745 < p_marche, edge negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Bouzas Maneiro, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.04 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Sabalenka archi-favorite (1.04)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fruhvirtova, Linda vs Jacquemot, Elsa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Jacquemot favorite a 1.78",
      "raisonnement": "Match serre; favorite a 1.78 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Siegemund, Laura vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Osaka favorite a 1.29 (sous plancher); de plus Siegemund a un meilleur % carriere terre. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Galfi, Dalma vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Galfi favorite a 1.68",
      "raisonnement": "Sherif en regain en qualifs; favorite Galfi 1.68 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruzic, Antonia vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Krueger favorite a 1.55",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger meilleure joueuse de fond de court; cote 1.55 hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalinina, Anhelina vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "blessure (abandon en finale a Rabat) + edge negatif — incertitude physique",
      "raisonnement": "Kalinina favorite a 1.39 et mene le H2H 3-1, mais ABANDON en finale a Rabat quelques jours avant RG: incertitude physique majeure -> p discountee sous le marche, chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Boisson, Lois",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Kalinskaya favorite a 1.56",
      "raisonnement": "Kalinskaya favorite sur le papier (1.56) mais Boisson demi-finaliste surprise RG 2025 portee par le public; hors zone rentable + chaos 2."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Keys, Madison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Keys archi-favorite (1.11) malgre un doute physique evoque; NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korneeva, Alina vs Cocciaretto, Elisabetta",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "probleme physique Cocciaretto + edge negatif",
      "raisonnement": "Cocciaretto favorite (1.47, marche 68.0%) mais probleme physique apres Rome et arret d'entrainement signale; Korneeva debutante a haute variance. p_estimee ~0.64 < marche, edge negatif + chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Townsend, Taylor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Gauff tenante du titre archi-favorite (1.11)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs Oliynykova, Oleksandra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Oliynykova favorite a 1.50",
      "raisonnement": "Oliynykova favorite (1.50, exactement au seuil): NO BET 10 (>= 1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Birrell, Kimberly vs Pegula, Jessica",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Pegula archi-favorite (1.02), Birrell en serie noire."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Bartunkova, Nikola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Mboko top 10 favorite a 1.28 (sous plancher) + galeres physiques recurrentes signalees. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "AS Saint-Etienne vs OGC Nice",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Ligue 1",
      "heure": "18:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "aucune selection >= 0.55 — cotes DC indisponibles, OU sans donnees buts/xG fiables, pricing atypique",
      "raisonnement": "ML H 2.36 / N 3.50 / A 3.00: aucune issue 1X2 n'atteint 0.55 (St-Etienne 0.42, nul 0.29, Nice 0.33). Les cotes Double Chance (marche prefere) ne sont pas disponibles dans le flux. L'Under 2.75 (1.78, marche 56%) manque de support (pas de donnees buts/xG, modele faible). Pricing atypique: l'equipe 17e est favorite a domicile (2.36) face a la 4e (3.00) -> contexte de fin de saison incertain -> chaos 2. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "OU Over 217.5: incertitude blessure (Jalen Williams day-to-day) + variance serie (G4=185), p_finale 0.55 fragile",
      "raisonnement": "Finale Conf. Ouest G5, serie 2-2. Projection totale 222 (moyenne serie) vs ligne 217.5 -> lean Over (3 des 4 matchs > 217.5). MAIS Jalen Williams, 2e option offensive d'OKC, est day-to-day et son statut ne sera confirme que ~2h avant un tip-off a +19h: son absence ferait chuter le total de ~8-10 pts. G4 fut un duel defensif (185). Incertitude trop elevee pour un OU (chaos 2), p_finale honnete ~0.54 sous le seuil PROBABLE 0.55. NO BET. (ATS OKC -5.5 ecarte: marges de serie tres volatiles +9/-7/+15/-21.)"
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 6,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 4,
      "CONFIANT": 2,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 44.0,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "11u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 16.16,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+36.7%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "75%",
      "details": "4xCERTAIN(0.77) + 2xCONFIANT(0.73) -> moyenne 0.752"
    },
    "inventaire": {
      "matchs_avec_cotes": 42,
      "filtres_amont": 0,
      "analyses_detail": 42,
      "paris_retenus": 6,
      "no_bet": 36
    }
  }
}