{
  "date": "2026-05-27",
  "generated": "2026-05-27T07:16:10",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Kokkinakis, Thanasi vs Carreno Busta, Pablo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "74.7%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "p_marche": "74.1%",
        "edge": "+0.7%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Carreno Busta, ex-demi-finaliste RG et pur specialiste terre, a domine Lehecka (TS12) en 3 sets au R1 et est frais. Kokkinakis sort d'un 5 sets de 4h18 (Atmane), traine des antecedents de blessures et un jeu plat peu adapte a la terre lente. Le differentiel fraicheur+surface sur du best-of-5 cree un edge mince mais positif au-dela du ~68% fondamental. p_estimee 0.75, edge +0.6%. CONFIANT, chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Snigur, Daria vs Stearns, Peyton",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "70.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "p_marche": "69.0%",
        "edge": "+1.4%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Stearns possede un lift lourd ideal sur terre lente qui neutralise les coups plats de Snigur (style mismatch reconnu et repetable). Victoire 6-3 6-3 vs Kenin au R1. Snigur est en forme (30-8 en 2026, a sorti Tauson TS21) mais son jeu plat voyage mal sur terre lente. Edge mince positif via l'avantage stylistique. p_estimee 0.71, edge +1.4%. CONFIANT, chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Conference League",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif/nul sur tous marches — finale neutre fermee",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Finale UCL a Leipzig (terrain neutre, aucun avantage domicile). DC 1X @1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1). 12 @1.34 et X2 @1.82 : p_estimee ~ p_marche, edge nul/negatif. ML Palace 2.01 (p_est ~45% < 0.55). BTTS Yes p_est 0.52 et Under 2.5 @1.65 deja chers (edge negatif). Incertitude compos (Wharton/Richards) -> chaos 2. Finale serree, marche efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cina, Federico vs De Jong, Jesper",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "De Jong favori @1.640 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable tennis ML (<1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Tirante, Thiago Agustin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tirante favori @1.660 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Mensik, Jakub",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Mensik favori @1.820 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Borges, Nuno vs Kecmanovic, Miomir",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kecmanovic favori @1.600 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Humbert, Ugo vs Halys, Quentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Humbert favori @1.670 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fonseca, Joao vs Prizmic, Dino",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.870 / 1.970), les deux favoris >= 1.50. Pas de favori dans la zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Basavareddy, Nishesh vs Michelsen, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Michelsen favori @1.540 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Trungelliti, Marco",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.25 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Khachanov tres court @1.25, marche sans valeur d'information. Trungelliti @4.10 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ugo Carabelli, Camilo vs Rublev, Andrey",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Rublev @1.26 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Duckworth, James vs Jodar, Rafael",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Jodar @1.02, aucune valeur. Duckworth @16.0 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Royer, Valentin vs Djokovic, Novak",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Djokovic @1.11 < 1.30, marche sans valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruud, Casper vs Medjedovic, Hamad",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-0.6% a -4.8% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Ruud @1.41 (p_marche 70.9%) : palmares terre superieur (224-101, bi-finaliste RG) MAIS malaise/coup de chaleur au R1 ('zombie', a frole l'abandon) + defaite recente vs Navone. p_estimee 0.64-0.70 selon severite du physique -> p_finale 0.66-0.70 < p_marche -> edge negatif. Medjedovic @2.90 dangereux (a battu De Minaur) mais ML >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). Incertitude physique majeure -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonego, Lorenzo vs Paul, Tommy",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Paul @1.15 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Machac, Tomas vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.14 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Zverev @1.14 < 1.30, marche sans valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korpatsch, Tamara vs Wang, Xinyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.970 / 1.880), aucun favori dans la zone rentable < 1.50."
    },
    {
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Parks, Alycia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.930 / 1.920), aucun favori < 1.50."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paolini, Jasmine vs Sierra, Solana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Paolini favorite @1.520 >= 1.50, juste au-dessus de la zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Teichmann, Jil vs Frech, Magdalena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Frech favorite @1.650 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bejlek, Sara vs Swiatek, Iga",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Swiatek @1.03, aucune valeur. Bejlek @15.0 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ostapenko, Jelena vs Linette, Magda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Ostapenko @1.26 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Starodubtseva, Yuliia vs Rybakina, Elena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.07 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Rybakina @1.07, aucune valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Volynets, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Kostyuk @1.15 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Quevedo, Kaitlin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.06 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Svitolina @1.06, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jones, Francesca vs Bouzkova, Marie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bouzkova @1.28 < 1.30, sous le seuil minimal."
    },
    {
      "match": "Baptiste, Hailey vs Wang, Xiyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-3.6% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Baptiste @1.49 (p_marche 67.1%) : n.26, H2H 1-0 (Charleston), mais surface note la donne favorite a ~62% seulement. Wang Xiyu (n.148) en forme EXCEPTIONNELLE (24-2 en 2026, 11-1 terre, 9/10 derniers) et Baptiste a use bcp d'energie au R1 (3 sets sauves vs Krejcikova). p_estimee 0.62 -> p_finale 0.635 < p_marche 0.671 -> edge -3.6%. Wang @2.65 ML >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Bassols Ribera, Marina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva @1.02, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rakhimova, Kamilla vs Muchova, Karolina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.09 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Muchova @1.09 < 1.30, marche sans valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lys, Eva vs Cirstea, Sorana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cirstea @1.24 < 1.30, sous le seuil."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "match": "Kokkinakis, Thanasi vs Carreno Busta, Pablo",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Carreno Busta, Pablo",
      "cote": 1.35,
      "cote_prise": 1.35,
      "cote_plancher": 1.3751,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.75,
      "probabilite_marche": "74.1%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7407,
      "p_finale": 0.7472,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7472,
      "edge": 0.0065,
      "edge_num": 0.0065,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6.0,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Carreno Busta, ex-demi-finaliste RG et pur specialiste terre, a domine Lehecka (TS12) en 3 sets au R1 et est frais. Kokkinakis sort d'un 5 sets de 4h18 (Atmane), traine des antecedents de blessures et un jeu plat peu adapte a la terre lente. Le differentiel fraicheur+surface sur du best-of-5 cree un edge mince mais positif au-dela du ~68% fondamental. p_estimee 0.75, edge +0.6%. CONFIANT, chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Snigur, Daria vs Stearns, Peyton",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Stearns, Peyton",
      "cote": 1.45,
      "cote_prise": 1.45,
      "cote_plancher": 1.4622,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.71,
      "probabilite_marche": "69.0%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.6897,
      "p_finale": 0.7039,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7039,
      "edge": 0.0142,
      "edge_num": 0.0142,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6.0,
      "kelly_fraction": null,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Stearns possede un lift lourd ideal sur terre lente qui neutralise les coups plats de Snigur (style mismatch reconnu et repetable). Victoire 6-3 6-3 vs Kenin au R1. Snigur est en forme (30-8 en 2026, a sorti Tauson TS21) mais son jeu plat voyage mal sur terre lente. Edge mince positif via l'avantage stylistique. p_estimee 0.71, edge +1.4%. CONFIANT, chaos 1."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Conference League",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif/nul sur tous marches — finale neutre fermee",
      "raisonnement": "Finale UCL a Leipzig (terrain neutre, aucun avantage domicile). DC 1X @1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1). 12 @1.34 et X2 @1.82 : p_estimee ~ p_marche, edge nul/negatif. ML Palace 2.01 (p_est ~45% < 0.55). BTTS Yes p_est 0.52 et Under 2.5 @1.65 deja chers (edge negatif). Incertitude compos (Wharton/Richards) -> chaos 2. Finale serree, marche efficient."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cina, Federico vs De Jong, Jesper",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "De Jong favori @1.640 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable tennis ML (<1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Davidovich Fokina, Alejandro vs Tirante, Thiago Agustin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Tirante favori @1.660 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Navone, Mariano vs Mensik, Jakub",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Mensik favori @1.820 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Borges, Nuno vs Kecmanovic, Miomir",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Kecmanovic favori @1.600 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Humbert, Ugo vs Halys, Quentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Humbert favori @1.670 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Fonseca, Joao vs Prizmic, Dino",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.870 / 1.970), les deux favoris >= 1.50. Pas de favori dans la zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Basavareddy, Nishesh vs Michelsen, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Michelsen favori @1.540 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Khachanov, Karen vs Trungelliti, Marco",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.25 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Khachanov tres court @1.25, marche sans valeur d'information. Trungelliti @4.10 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ugo Carabelli, Camilo vs Rublev, Andrey",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Rublev @1.26 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Duckworth, James vs Jodar, Rafael",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Jodar @1.02, aucune valeur. Duckworth @16.0 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Royer, Valentin vs Djokovic, Novak",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.11 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Djokovic @1.11 < 1.30, marche sans valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruud, Casper vs Medjedovic, Hamad",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-0.6% a -4.8% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Ruud @1.41 (p_marche 70.9%) : palmares terre superieur (224-101, bi-finaliste RG) MAIS malaise/coup de chaleur au R1 ('zombie', a frole l'abandon) + defaite recente vs Navone. p_estimee 0.64-0.70 selon severite du physique -> p_finale 0.66-0.70 < p_marche -> edge negatif. Medjedovic @2.90 dangereux (a battu De Minaur) mais ML >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). Incertitude physique majeure -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonego, Lorenzo vs Paul, Tommy",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Paul @1.15 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Machac, Tomas vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.14 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Zverev @1.14 < 1.30, marche sans valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Korpatsch, Tamara vs Wang, Xinyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.970 / 1.880), aucun favori dans la zone rentable < 1.50."
    },
    {
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Parks, Alycia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — pick'em",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre (1.930 / 1.920), aucun favori < 1.50."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paolini, Jasmine vs Sierra, Solana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Paolini favorite @1.520 >= 1.50, juste au-dessus de la zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Teichmann, Jil vs Frech, Magdalena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Frech favorite @1.650 >= 1.50, hors zone rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bejlek, Sara vs Swiatek, Iga",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Swiatek @1.03, aucune valeur. Bejlek @15.0 hors range."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ostapenko, Jelena vs Linette, Magda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.26 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Ostapenko @1.26 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Starodubtseva, Yuliia vs Rybakina, Elena",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.07 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Rybakina @1.07, aucune valeur d'information."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Volynets, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Kostyuk @1.15 < 1.30, marche trop court."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Quevedo, Kaitlin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.06 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Svitolina @1.06, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jones, Francesca vs Bouzkova, Marie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Bouzkova @1.28 < 1.30, sous le seuil minimal."
    },
    {
      "match": "Baptiste, Hailey vs Wang, Xiyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-3.6% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Baptiste @1.49 (p_marche 67.1%) : n.26, H2H 1-0 (Charleston), mais surface note la donne favorite a ~62% seulement. Wang Xiyu (n.148) en forme EXCEPTIONNELLE (24-2 en 2026, 11-1 terre, 9/10 derniers) et Baptiste a use bcp d'energie au R1 (3 sets sauves vs Krejcikova). p_estimee 0.62 -> p_finale 0.635 < p_marche 0.671 -> edge -3.6%. Wang @2.65 ML >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Bassols Ribera, Marina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.02 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva @1.02, aucune valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rakhimova, Kamilla vs Muchova, Karolina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.09 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Muchova @1.09 < 1.30, marche sans valeur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lys, Eva vs Cirstea, Sorana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cirstea @1.24 < 1.30, sous le seuil."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 2,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 0,
      "CONFIANT": 2,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 12.0,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "3.0u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 4.8,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+40.0%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "73%",
      "details": "2xCONFIANT (Carreno Busta 0.747, Stearns 0.704) -> moyenne 0.726"
    },
    "inventaire": {
      "matchs_avec_cotes": 31,
      "filtres_amont": 0,
      "analyses_detail": 31,
      "paris_retenus": 2,
      "no_bet": 29
    }
  }
}