{
  "date": "2026-05-28",
  "generated": "2026-05-28T07:15:00",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Burruchaga, Roman Andres",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "76.7%",
        "probabilite_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis ATP/WTA Grand Chelem"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Auger-Aliassime (top 25, 5 sets R1 vs Altmaier maitrise) tres superieur a Burruchaga (premiere R2 Grand Chelem career, 52 fautes directes R1, abandon adverse). Qualite de frappe, expertise terre 5 sets, 70%+ premier service. Premiere confrontation. Cote 1.36 < 1.50 dans la zone rentable tennis (NO BET 10). p_finale 0.767, edge +3.1%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Van Assche, Luca vs Nakashima, Brandon",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "72.5%",
        "probabilite_marche": "71.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis ATP/WTA Grand Chelem"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Nakashima ranking 31 vs Van Assche 72. Forme terre tres comparable (42% vs 41%) mais Nakashima service superieur + niveau global. Premiere confrontation. Dimers 69% Nakashima. p_finale 0.725, edge +1.1%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Korneeva, Alina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "73.5%",
        "probabilite_marche": "72.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis ATP/WTA Grand Chelem"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Kalinskaya N°24 (R1 6-2 6-2 vs Boisson) face a Korneeva (213->117 en 6 mois, championne junior RG 2023). Experience tour decisive. Premiere confrontation. Dimers 73% Kalinskaya, 70% premier set. Bemol : Kalinskaya jamais passe R2 RG (1V/4) - chaos 1. p_finale 0.735, edge +1.1%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Siniakova, Katerina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "15:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_selection": "73.9%",
        "probabilite_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis ATP/WTA Grand Chelem"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Mboko 19 ans en pleine ascension (22-7 en 2026, R1 ecrasante 3 jeux concedes) face a Siniakova spécialiste double, 11-10 en simple. Athletisme + agression controlee de Mboko = profil ideal clay. Dimers 72% Mboko. p_finale 0.739, edge +0.3%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel vs Kouame, Moise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.28 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Diaz Acosta, Facundo vs Tien, Learner",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.24 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Wu, Yibing",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.27 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Cerundolo, Juan Manuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Sinner 1.01 < 1.30 (favori extreme, pas de valeur)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo, Francisco vs Gaston, Hugo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.10 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Grabher, Julia vs Anisimova, Amanda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Anisimova 1.18 < 1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shnaider, Diana vs Kessler, McCartney",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Shnaider 1.26 < 1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Gauff 1.03 < 1.30 (favori extreme)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Kasatkina, Daria vs Bandecchi, Susan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Kasatkina 1.11 < 1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruzic, Antonia vs Keys, Madison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Keys 1.15 < 1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Jacquemot, Elsa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Sabalenka 1.01 < 1.30 (favori extreme)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Boulter, Katie vs Potapova, Anastasia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — cote Potapova 1.22 < 1.30",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Struff, Jan-Lennard vs Faria, Jaime",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.57 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Svajda, Zachary vs Walton, Adam",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.78/2.09 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match trop serre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Hurkacz, Hubert vs Tiafoe, Frances",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.69 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Kopriva, Vit",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.78 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match 50/50",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Tabilo, Alejandro vs Vacherot, Valentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote Tabilo 1.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) + walkover Vacherot blesse",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Arnaldi, Matteo vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote Tsitsipas 1.56 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech, Arthur vs Berrettini, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.86/1.95 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match equilibre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Navarro, Emma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.83/2.02 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match serre",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Comesana, Francisco vs Darderi, Luciano",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-2.7%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Darderi forme clay superieure (16-8) mais H2H Comesana 2-0 (dont 1 ret) introduit incertitude. Cote 1.32 surestime Darderi vs estimation calibree. | p_marche=0.758, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.731, edge=-2.7%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Collignon, Raphael vs Shelton, Ben",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-1.8%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Collignon specialiste clay (26-8 année, 11-2 clay, 107 wins career clay) trop dangereux pour Shelton, qui a perdu 3/5 derniers. Cote 1.46 surestime Shelton sur cette surface. | p_marche=0.685, p_estimee=0.66, p_finale=0.667, edge=-1.8%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-3.0%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Osaka favorite mais Vekic 12-4 clay 2026 avec meilleurs stats clay traditionnels. Osaka 5-2 clay seulement. H2H Osaka 2-0 (1-0 clay) confirme mais marche surestime. | p_marche=0.763, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.733, edge=-3.0%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Oliynykova, Oleksandra vs Birrell, Kimberly",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-4.2%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Birrell vient d'upset Pegula N°5 en R1 (enorme exploit) - momentum elevee. Oliynykova premiere R2 Slam, donnees limitees. Trop d'incertitude pour le favori marche. | p_marche=0.680, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.638, edge=-4.2%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Mertens, Elise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-3.6%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Chwalinska 8/8 sets gagnes depuis arrivee Roland Garros (3 quali + R1). Momentum elevé. Mertens 6/10 derniers, niveau hesitant. Cote Mertens 1.49 trop tendue. | p_marche=0.671, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.635, edge=-3.6%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Li, Ann vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-0.7%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Li 29 demi-finales Strasbourg, R1 facile 6-4 6-2. MAIS Parry crowd advantage (Roland Garros home), R1 remontee 0-6 puis gagnée. Cote 1.37 sur-tendue. | p_marche=0.730, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.723, edge=-0.7%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakkari, Maria vs Liu, Claire",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-3.9%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sakkari 1-3 clay 2026 (25% wins) vs Liu 4-6 clay (66.7% wins recente). Sakkari peak superieure mais forme actuelle nettement inferieure. Cote 1.48 sur-confiante. | p_marche=0.676, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.637, edge=-3.9%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Casa Pia Lisbon vs SCU Torreense",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Liga Portugal",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "DQ-B (1 source Stake, tier 2 Liga Portugal requiert >= 2 sources pour DQ-A). Donnees Torreense incompletes (forme vide, position 0). Pas d'edge clair sur DC/OU/BTTS — cotes alignees au marche.",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Casa Pia 9e Liga Portugal (forme LWDLD) vs SCU Torreense (donnees manquantes). ML 2.35/3.10/3.20, DC 1X 1.35, OU 2.5 over 2.49 / under 1.52, BTTS yes 2.11 / no 1.71. Sans donnees Torreense fiables, impossible de calibrer p_estimee. NO BET disciplinaire."
    },
    {
      "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "Injury Jalen Williams (star OKC) QUESTIONABLE non confirme + donnees pace/ppg manquantes — regle NBA 'Injury report non publie -> NO BET'",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Game 6 Western Conference Finals, OKC mene 3-2. Frost Bank Center (SAS dom). Cotes : SAS 1.60 / OKC 2.34, Spread SAS -2.5 @ 1.79, OU 219.5 @ 1.88/1.89. Blessures OKC : Sorber OUT, Mitchell OUT, J. Williams QUESTIONABLE. Pace/ppg L5 = None dans data_brutes - impossible de projeter Total via formule. Incertitude statut Williams = risque majeur. Mode playoffs accepte chaos <= 2, mais sans donnees pace + injury non resolu sur joueur cle = NO BET prudent."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Burruchaga, Roman Andres",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "marche": "ML",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.34,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7353,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7666,
      "edge_num": 0.0313,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "statut_v3": "CERTAIN_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "palier": "ELITE",
      "mise_unites": "2.0u",
      "mise_unites_num": 2.0,
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Auger-Aliassime (top 25, 5 sets R1 vs Altmaier maitrise) tres superieur a Burruchaga (premiere R2 Grand Chelem career, 52 fautes directes R1, abandon adverse). Qualite de frappe, expertise terre 5 sets, 70%+ premier service. Premiere confrontation. Cote 1.36 < 1.50 dans la zone rentable tennis (NO BET 10). p_finale 0.767, edge +3.1%."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "match": "Van Assche, Luca vs Nakashima, Brandon",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "marche": "ML",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Nakashima, Brandon",
      "cote": 1.4,
      "cote_plancher": 1.42,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.73,
      "probabilite_marche": "71.4%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7143,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7253,
      "edge_num": 0.011,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_unites_num": 1.5,
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Nakashima ranking 31 vs Van Assche 72. Forme terre tres comparable (42% vs 41%) mais Nakashima service superieur + niveau global. Premiere confrontation. Dimers 69% Nakashima. p_finale 0.725, edge +1.1%."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Kalinskaya, Anna vs Korneeva, Alina",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "marche": "ML",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Kalinskaya, Anna",
      "cote": 1.38,
      "cote_plancher": 1.4,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.74,
      "probabilite_marche": "72.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7246,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7354,
      "edge_num": 0.0108,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_unites_num": 1.5,
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Kalinskaya N°24 (R1 6-2 6-2 vs Boisson) face a Korneeva (213->117 en 6 mois, championne junior RG 2023). Experience tour decisive. Premiere confrontation. Dimers 73% Kalinskaya, 70% premier set. Bemol : Kalinskaya jamais passe R2 RG (1V/4) - chaos 1. p_finale 0.735, edge +1.1%."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "match": "Mboko, Victoria vs Siniakova, Katerina",
      "heure": "15:40",
      "marche": "ML",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Mboko, Victoria",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.39,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.74,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7353,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7386,
      "edge_num": 0.0033,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "statut_v3": "CONFIANT_V4",
      "moteur": "PRONOSTIQUEUR",
      "palier": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_unites_num": 1.5,
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Mboko 19 ans en pleine ascension (22-7 en 2026, R1 ecrasante 3 jeux concedes) face a Siniakova spécialiste double, 11-10 en simple. Athletisme + agression controlee de Mboko = profil ideal clay. Dimers 72% Mboko. p_finale 0.739, edge +0.3%."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Vallejo, Adolfo Daniel vs Kouame, Moise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.28 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Diaz Acosta, Facundo vs Tien, Learner",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.24 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Wu, Yibing",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.27 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sinner, Jannik vs Cerundolo, Juan Manuel",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Sinner 1.01 < 1.30 (favori extreme, pas de valeur)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo, Francisco vs Gaston, Hugo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote favorite 1.10 < 1.30 (edge marche trop court)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Grabher, Julia vs Anisimova, Amanda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Anisimova 1.18 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shnaider, Diana vs Kessler, McCartney",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Shnaider 1.26 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Gauff, Coco vs Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Gauff 1.03 < 1.30 (favori extreme)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Kasatkina, Daria vs Bandecchi, Susan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Kasatkina 1.11 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruzic, Antonia vs Keys, Madison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Keys 1.15 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Jacquemot, Elsa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "12:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Sabalenka 1.01 < 1.30 (favori extreme)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Boulter, Katie vs Potapova, Anastasia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — cote Potapova 1.22 < 1.30",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favorite hors range [1.30, 3.00] — NO BET 1 v4.0"
    },
    {
      "match": "Struff, Jan-Lennard vs Faria, Jaime",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.57 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Svajda, Zachary vs Walton, Adam",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.78/2.09 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match trop serre",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Hurkacz, Hubert vs Tiafoe, Frances",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.69 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Kopriva, Vit",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.78 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match 50/50",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Tabilo, Alejandro vs Vacherot, Valentin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote Tabilo 1.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) + walkover Vacherot blesse",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Arnaldi, Matteo vs Tsitsipas, Stefanos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote Tsitsipas 1.56 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10)",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinderknech, Arthur vs Berrettini, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.86/1.95 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match equilibre",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Navarro, Emma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.83/2.02 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — match serre",
      "raisonnement": "Tennis ML cote >= 1.50 — zone non rentable (n=90, ROI -26% en 1.40-1.60, -39% au-dela 1.90)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Comesana, Francisco vs Darderi, Luciano",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-2.7%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Darderi forme clay superieure (16-8) mais H2H Comesana 2-0 (dont 1 ret) introduit incertitude. Cote 1.32 surestime Darderi vs estimation calibree. | p_marche=0.758, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.731, edge=-2.7%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Collignon, Raphael vs Shelton, Ben",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-1.8%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Collignon specialiste clay (26-8 année, 11-2 clay, 107 wins career clay) trop dangereux pour Shelton, qui a perdu 3/5 derniers. Cote 1.46 surestime Shelton sur cette surface. | p_marche=0.685, p_estimee=0.66, p_finale=0.667, edge=-1.8%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-3.0%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Osaka favorite mais Vekic 12-4 clay 2026 avec meilleurs stats clay traditionnels. Osaka 5-2 clay seulement. H2H Osaka 2-0 (1-0 clay) confirme mais marche surestime. | p_marche=0.763, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.733, edge=-3.0%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Oliynykova, Oleksandra vs Birrell, Kimberly",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-4.2%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Birrell vient d'upset Pegula N°5 en R1 (enorme exploit) - momentum elevee. Oliynykova premiere R2 Slam, donnees limitees. Trop d'incertitude pour le favori marche. | p_marche=0.680, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.638, edge=-4.2%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Mertens, Elise",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-3.6%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Chwalinska 8/8 sets gagnes depuis arrivee Roland Garros (3 quali + R1). Momentum elevé. Mertens 6/10 derniers, niveau hesitant. Cote Mertens 1.49 trop tendue. | p_marche=0.671, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.635, edge=-3.6%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Li, Ann vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-0.7%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Li 29 demi-finales Strasbourg, R1 facile 6-4 6-2. MAIS Parry crowd advantage (Roland Garros home), R1 remontee 0-6 puis gagnée. Cote 1.37 sur-tendue. | p_marche=0.730, p_estimee=0.72, p_finale=0.723, edge=-0.7%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakkari, Maria vs Liu, Claire",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-3.9%) — marche juge la cote trop basse vs estimation calibree",
      "raisonnement": "Sakkari 1-3 clay 2026 (25% wins) vs Liu 4-6 clay (66.7% wins recente). Sakkari peak superieure mais forme actuelle nettement inferieure. Cote 1.48 sur-confiante. | p_marche=0.676, p_estimee=0.62, p_finale=0.637, edge=-3.9%"
    },
    {
      "match": "Casa Pia Lisbon vs SCU Torreense",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Liga Portugal",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "DQ-B (1 source Stake, tier 2 Liga Portugal requiert >= 2 sources pour DQ-A). Donnees Torreense incompletes (forme vide, position 0). Pas d'edge clair sur DC/OU/BTTS — cotes alignees au marche.",
      "raisonnement": "Casa Pia 9e Liga Portugal (forme LWDLD) vs SCU Torreense (donnees manquantes). ML 2.35/3.10/3.20, DC 1X 1.35, OU 2.5 over 2.49 / under 1.52, BTTS yes 2.11 / no 1.71. Sans donnees Torreense fiables, impossible de calibrer p_estimee. NO BET disciplinaire."
    },
    {
      "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "Injury Jalen Williams (star OKC) QUESTIONABLE non confirme + donnees pace/ppg manquantes — regle NBA 'Injury report non publie -> NO BET'",
      "raisonnement": "Game 6 Western Conference Finals, OKC mene 3-2. Frost Bank Center (SAS dom). Cotes : SAS 1.60 / OKC 2.34, Spread SAS -2.5 @ 1.79, OU 219.5 @ 1.88/1.89. Blessures OKC : Sorber OUT, Mitchell OUT, J. Williams QUESTIONABLE. Pace/ppg L5 = None dans data_brutes - impossible de projeter Total via formule. Incertitude statut Williams = risque majeur. Mode playoffs accepte chaos <= 2, mais sans donnees pace + injury non resolu sur joueur cle = NO BET prudent."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 4,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 3,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 26,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "6.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 9.72,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+37.4%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "74.1%",
      "details": "1×CERTAIN(0.767) + 3×CONFIANT(0.733) → moyenne 0.741"
    }
  }
}