{
  "date": "2026-05-31",
  "generated": "2026-05-31T07:15:00",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Wang, Xiyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "ML hors [1.30, 3.00] et tous marches alternatifs (Hcp -1.5, OU 2.5 Under, HcpG -4.5) edge negatif — marche bien calibre sur la dominance Cirstea",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_cirstea": "62%", "victoire_wang": "38%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "cirstea": "n18 carriere, 36 ans, 0 set perdu, 7 jeux concedes en 3 matchs (80% 1ere balle), 6-0 6-0 vs Sierra T3",
        "wang_xiyu": "27-2 en 2026 (93%), qualifiee, 1er R16 GC",
        "h2h": "Wang 1-0 (Shenzhen 2020)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Cirstea ultra-dominante en R16 mais cotes ML hors range. Hcp -1.5 @ 1.56 p_finale 0.626 vs p_marche 0.641 -> edge -1.5%. Marche bien calibre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Swiatek, Iga",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-0.4%) sur ML Swiatek @ 1.38 — p_finale 0.721 vs p_marche 0.725, marche surestime Swiatek vs Kostyuk en feu sur terre (15-0)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_kostyuk": "27.5%", "victoire_swiatek": "72.5%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "kostyuk": "n15, 21-4 en 2026, 15-0 sur terre, streak 15 victoires terre",
        "swiatek": "4x championne RG, 21-9 en 2026 (9-3 terre), 0 set perdu mais pas son meilleur niveau",
        "h2h": "Swiatek 3-0 (6-0 en sets, RG 2021 R16 6-3 6-4)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Swiatek favorite logique mais Kostyuk en feu sur terre rend le sweep moins evident. p_estimee prudente 0.72 vs p_marche 0.725 -> edge negatif. Garde universelle declenche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Bencic, Belinda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90. Hcp -1.5 Svitolina @ 2.23 edge -3.4%, OU 2.5 Under @ 1.51 edge -18.3%",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_svitolina": "55%", "victoire_bencic": "45%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "svitolina": "n7, 9 victoires d'affilee dont titre Rome (3 top-5 battus)",
        "bencic": "n11, 0 set perdu a Paris, parcours solide",
        "h2h": "Svitolina 4-2 (dernier Dubai 2026), seul match terre 2014 gagne par Bencic qualifier"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre entre 2 specialistes terre. Marche bien calibre, pas de spot exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Teichmann, Jil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {"victoire_andreeva": "92%", "sweep_2-0": "78%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "andreeva": "n8, 19 ans, 32 victoires saison (record tour), 18 sur terre, 8/10 derniers matchs terre, 3e R16 consecutif RG",
        "teichmann": "n170 (lucky loser), bat Muchova 6-1 7-5 au T3 (9e top-10 win carriere)",
        "h2h": "Aucune confrontation pro recente notable"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva ultra-dominante vs n170 lucky loser, defense/contre-attaque optimales sur terre. Sweep 2-0 hautement probable (p_finale 0.770)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Knutson, Gabriela",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cotes ML hors range [1.30, 3.00] (Krueger 1.21, Knutson 3.95). OU games NO BET 3 (double validation absente)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_krueger": "80%", "victoire_knutson": "20%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "krueger": "n120, meilleure classee du tournoi",
        "knutson": "finaliste WTA 125 Caldas da Rainha 2025, titre double Oeiras 2026"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Krueger favorite logique mais cote hors range. Pas de marche alternatif exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Minnen, Greet vs Hruncakova, Viktoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cotes ML hors range [1.30, 3.00] (Minnen 1.26, Hruncakova 3.50). OU games NO BET 3",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_minnen": "78%", "victoire_hruncakova": "22%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "minnen": "TITRE Birmingham 2025 sur gazon (bat Fruhvirtova 6-2 6-1 finale), 6 victoires d'affilee gazon en 2025",
        "hruncakova": "passe les qualifs (bat Watson 6-3 6-4 7-5)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Minnen tenante du titre sur surface favorable mais cote hors range. Aucun marche exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hibino, Nao vs Valdmannova, Vendula",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Valdmannova 1.64 favorite mais zone non rentable",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_hibino": "45%", "victoire_valdmannova": "55%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "hibino": "qualifiee, R2 RG 2025, R16 Auckland, titre ITF W100 Incheon",
        "valdmannova": "peu de donnees publiques"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Marche surprenant donne Valdmannova favorite malgre Hibino plus experimentee. Donnees insuffisantes pour contester."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Naef, Celine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Masarova 1.62 favorite. Donnees Naef limitees",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_masarova": "60%", "victoire_naef": "40%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "masarova": "qualifiee, profil veteran ex top-100",
        "naef": "donnees forme limitees"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Profils proches, donnees forme insuffisantes. NO BET 10 applique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Martincova, Tereza vs Xu, Mingge",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-10.1%) sur ML Martincova @ 1.44 — Xu Mingge avantage local et historique Birmingham 2025 (QF, bat Parks)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_martincova": "55%", "victoire_xu": "45%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "martincova": "qualifier Birmingham 2025 (bat Marino 3-6 6-4 6-1)",
        "xu_mingge": "Britannique jeune, wildcard 2025, bat Parks n52 au T1, QF Birmingham 2025"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Xu Mingge revelation locale 2025 sur gazon, contexte tres favorable. Cote Martincova 1.44 surestime sa probabilite reelle."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Ito, Aoi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — Sawangkaew 1.57. Donnees Ito limitees",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_sawangkaew": "60%", "victoire_ito": "40%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "sawangkaew": "premier titre WTA 125 (Feb 2026)",
        "ito": "peu d'infos sur gazon Birmingham 2026"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Donnees insuffisantes, NO BET 10 applique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Carreno Busta, Pablo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "ML hors [1.30, 3.00]. Tous marches alternatifs (Hcp -2.5, HcpG -6.5, OU 3.5) edge negatif ou marginal. Marche bien calibre.",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_jodar": "80%", "victoire_carreno": "20%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "jodar": "19 ans ESP, 76% win rate 2026 (84% terre), titre Marrakech, QF Madrid (bat de Minaur), 1er R16 GC, bat Michelsen 5 sets (4h16)",
        "carreno_busta": "veteran, retour de blessure, parcours solide R16",
        "h2h": "1ere confrontation pro"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Jodar dominant terre mais a souvent eu des matchs en 5 sets. Sweep -2.5 sets p_finale 0.451 vs p_marche 0.452 -> edge nul."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Rublev, Andrey",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). Hcp Mensik +1.5 @ 1.54 edge nul (+0.1%) — match equilibre, marche calibre. OU sets NO BET 3 (edge 1.4% < 9%)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_mensik": "44%", "victoire_rublev": "56%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "mensik": "CZE, 21-9 en 2026, 6-3 terre, 4/5 derniers victoires, bat de Minaur T3",
        "rublev": "21-10 en 2026, 11-4 terre, 3 sets tie-break gagnes a RG2026 (clutch), specialiste terre",
        "h2h": "Mensik 2-0 (uniquement hard, jamais terre)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre. Mensik favorable H2H mais Rublev specialiste terre. Marche bien calibre, aucun spot exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "De Jong, Jesper vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "ML hors [1.30, 3.00] (Zverev 1.05, De Jong 10.00). Hcp Zverev -2.5 sets @ 1.61 edge -5.0% — H2H montre 5-1 sets sur 2 matchs (1 set perdu/match en moyenne), sweep non garanti. OU sets NO BET 3 (edge 1.5% < 9%)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {"victoire_zverev": "95%", "sweep_3-0": "55%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "de_jong": "NED (lucky loser), 1er R16 GC, bat Khachanov 7-5 5-7 6-2 6-7 6-2 (5 sets epiques)",
        "zverev": "n2, QF RG dans 7/8 dernieres editions, bat Halys T3",
        "h2h": "Zverev 2-0 (5-1 en sets, 33-16 jeux, 2-0 terre), RG 2025 T2 3-6 6-1 6-2 6-3 (perd 1er set)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Zverev ultra-favorite ML mais De Jong tient des sets (perdu 1 set RG 2025). Sweep -2.5 p_finale 0.571 vs p_marche 0.621 -> edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruud, Casper vs Fonseca, Joao",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {"victoire_ruud": "58%", "fonseca_perd_max_1_set_ou_gagne": "65%"},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "ruud": "NOR specialiste RG, T1 5 sets vs Safiullin, T3 5h vs Paul (sauve 12/14 BP, retour 0-2)",
        "fonseca": "BRA jeune star, T2 et T3 retour 0-2 a 3-2 (5 sets chacun), confiance solide",
        "h2h": "1ere confrontation pro (0-0)"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Ruud specialiste terre mais fatigue accumulee (5h vs Paul). Fonseca jeune avec confiance retour 0-2. Hcp +1.5 sets (Fonseca gagne ou 2-3) probable vu profil match equilibre, p_finale 0.631 vs p_marche 0.588 -> edge +4.3%."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Teichmann, Jil",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "marche_canonique": "HANDICAP",
      "marche": "Handicap sets -1.5",
      "selection": "Andreeva -1.5 sets",
      "cote": 1.34,
      "cote_plancher": 1.33,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "75%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.746,
      "p_finale_num": 0.770,
      "edge_num": 0.024,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva n8 19 ans en pleine forme (32 victoires saison, 18 sur terre) face a Teichmann n170 lucky loser. Andreeva 3e R16 consecutif RG, defense/contre-attaque optimales. Teichmann a battu Muchova T3 mais l'ecart de niveau est massif. Sweep 2-0 hautement probable (p_finale 0.770). Stake disponible @ 1.34."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "match": "Ruud, Casper vs Fonseca, Joao",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "marche_canonique": "HANDICAP",
      "marche": "Handicap sets +1.5",
      "selection": "Fonseca +1.5 sets",
      "cote": 1.70,
      "cote_plancher": 1.64,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.65,
      "probabilite_marche": "58.8%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.588,
      "p_finale_num": 0.631,
      "edge_num": 0.043,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Ruud favori RG (specialiste terre lourd topspin) mais fatigue lourde apres T3 5h vs Paul (sauve 12/14 BP). Fonseca jeune star BRA en confiance solide (retour 0-2 a 3-2 sur T2 et T3, 5 sets epiques). Hcp +1.5 sets couvre Fonseca gagnant ou perdant 2-3. Profil de match favorable a un duel a rallonge (5 sets probable)."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Cirstea, Sorana vs Wang, Xiyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cotes ML hors range et tous marches alternatifs (Hcp -1.5, OU 2.5 Under, HcpG -4.5) edge negatif",
      "raisonnement": "Marche bien calibre sur dominance Cirstea, aucun spot exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Swiatek, Iga",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-0.4%) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Swiatek favorite mais Kostyuk en feu sur terre (15-0). Estimation prudente p_finale 0.721 vs p_marche 0.725."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Bencic, Belinda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hcp -1.5 et OU Under aussi edge negatif. Match equilibre entre 2 specialistes terre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Knutson, Gabriela",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cotes ML hors range [1.30, 3.00] et OU games NO BET 3",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger favorite logique mais cote 1.21 < 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Minnen, Greet vs Hruncakova, Viktoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cotes ML hors range [1.30, 3.00] et OU games NO BET 3",
      "raisonnement": "Minnen tenante titre Birmingham 2025 mais cote 1.26 < 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hibino, Nao vs Valdmannova, Vendula",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Valdmannova favorite (1.64) mais donnees limitees. NO BET 10 applique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Naef, Celine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Profils proches, donnees insuffisantes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Martincova, Tereza vs Xu, Mingge",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-10.1%) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Xu Mingge avantage local gazon (QF Birmingham 2025, bat Parks n52). Cote Martincova 1.44 surestime sa probabilite."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Ito, Aoi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Donnees Ito insuffisantes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Carreno Busta, Pablo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "ML hors range et tous marches alternatifs (Hcp -2.5, HcpG -6.5, OU 3.5) edge nul ou negatif",
      "raisonnement": "Jodar dominant terre mais matchs souvent en 5 sets (4h16 vs Michelsen). Sweep non garanti."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Rublev, Andrey",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10). Hcp +1.5 edge nul. OU sets NO BET 3",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre H2H Mensik 2-0 mais 1ere fois sur terre. Rublev specialiste terre. Marche bien calibre."
    },
    {
      "match": "De Jong, Jesper vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "ML hors range. Hcp Zverev -2.5 edge -5.0% (sweep non garanti vu H2H 5-1 sets). OU sets NO BET 3",
      "raisonnement": "Zverev ultra-favori mais De Jong tient des sets (perdu 1 set vs Zverev RG 2025). Sweep 3-0 incertain."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 2,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 1,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 14,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "3.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 6.92,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+49.4%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "70%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN(0.770) + 1xCONFIANT(0.631) -> moyenne 0.700"
    }
  }
}