{
  "date": "2026-06-01",
  "generated": "2026-06-01T07:14:12",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Potapova, Anastasia vs Kalinskaya, Anna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_finale": "69.3%",
        "p_marche": "67.6%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_h2h_surface"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Potapova vient d'eliminer Gauff en R3 (4-6 7-6(1) 6-4), decrite comme 'form player of clay swing' (seed 22). Avantage net sur terre battue par rapport a Kalinskaya (seed 28) dont la victoire R3 vs Osorio etait 'far from convincing'. H2H Kalinskaya 2-0 mais sur hard il y a 4 ans, peu pertinent sur Roland-Garros R4. Shrinkage 70/30 confirme la valeur. Chaos 1 (H2H historique defavorable mais ancien et hors-surface)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kalieva, Elvina vs Gibson, Talia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_finale": "76.8%",
        "p_marche": "76.3%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_h2h_surface"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Gibson WTA #58 vs Kalieva WTA #135 = 77 places d'ecart. Gibson H2H 2-0 vs Kalieva. Sortie de defaite R1 RG vs Putintseva (4-6 6-4 6-1) il y a 7 jours = transition rapide clay->grass = chaos 1. Gibson reste favori naturel par marge de classement + H2H. P_finale 0.768 = niveau CERTAIN."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stoiana, Mary vs Sun, Lulu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_finale": "69.1%",
        "p_marche": "67.1%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_h2h_surface"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Sun (NZ) avec experience grass tres superieure (Wimbledon QF 2024) face a Stoiana (USA). Avantage surface explicitement note dans data brutes. Pas de H2H mais ecart d'experience grass est marquant. P_finale 0.691 = CONFIANT solide, edge +2%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Inglis, Maddison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_finale": "76.8%",
        "p_marche": "76.3%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis_h2h_surface"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Naef seed #10 Birmingham (20 ans, Suisse) avec experience grass solide (demi-finale WTA 125 Ilkley 2025). Adversaire Inglis (AUS) sans donnees recentes notables. Ecart de niveau et momentum favorise Naef. P_finale 0.768 = CERTAIN, chaos 0."
    },
    {
      "match": "Dang, Yiming vs Alvisi, Eleonora",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.66/2.09 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Aucun cote dans la zone 1.30-1.50 tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cortez Llorca, Lucia vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote home pile a 1.50 - exclus."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kozyreva, Maria vs Radisic, Nika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.76/1.96 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prisacariu, Andreea vs Dell'Edera, Francesca",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 9.60 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote favori trop basse et outsider trop haute."
    },
    {
      "match": "Yaneva, Elizara vs Pigato, Lisa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 2.24/1.58 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML autorisee."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pieri, Tatiana vs Bosio, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.72/2.01 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakellaridi, Sapfo vs Costoulas, Sofia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 5.20 > 3.00 (NO BET 1) et 1.13 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cotes hors range, gros desequilibre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lepchenko, Varvara vs Shymanovich, Iryna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "15:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.85/1.85 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match coin-flip, NB10 active."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Svajda, Zachary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.13 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 6.40 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cobolli ultra-favori, Svajda outsider trop haut."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo, Juan Manuel vs Berrettini, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 2.32/1.64 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Berrettini 1.64 et Cerundolo 2.32 hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tiafoe, Frances vs Arnaldi, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.89/1.92 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre, NB10 active."
    },
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Tabilo, Alejandro",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.55/2.46 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Auger-Aliassime 1.55 hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Keys, Madison vs Shnaider, Diana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.65/2.30 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.56/2.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote 1.21 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 4.50 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Sabalenka #1 mondiale ultra-favorite, Osaka outsider hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Klimovicova, Linda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 1.62/2.17 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stojsavljevic, Mika vs Jones, Emerson",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-1.7% < 0) - marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Stojsavljevic WC en breakout BJK Cup, Jones AUS favori marche 1.46. p_estimee 0.66 < p_marche 0.685 -> shrinkage donne p_finale 0.667, edge -1.7%. Garde universelle edge>=0 declenche NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Knutson, Gabriela vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cotes 2.15/1.63 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_GS",
      "ligue": "WTA - French Open Women Singles",
      "match": "Potapova, Anastasia vs Kalinskaya, Anna",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Potapova, Anastasia (ML)",
      "cote": 1.48,
      "cote_plancher": 1.49,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.7,
      "probabilite_marche": "67.6%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.676,
      "p_finale_num": 0.693,
      "edge_num": 0.017,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Potapova vient d'eliminer Gauff en R3 (4-6 7-6(1) 6-4), decrite comme 'form player of clay swing' (seed 22). Avantage net sur terre battue par rapport a Kalinskaya (seed 28) dont la victoire R3 vs Osorio etait 'far from convincing'. H2H Kalinskaya 2-0 mais sur hard il y a 4 ans, peu pertinent sur Roland-Garros R4. Shrinkage 70/30 confirme la valeur. Chaos 1 (H2H historique defavorable mais ancien et hors-surface)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "match": "Kalieva, Elvina vs Gibson, Talia",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Gibson, Talia (ML)",
      "cote": 1.31,
      "cote_plancher": 1.34,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.77,
      "probabilite_marche": "76.3%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.763,
      "p_finale_num": 0.768,
      "edge_num": 0.005,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Gibson WTA #58 vs Kalieva WTA #135 = 77 places d'ecart. Gibson H2H 2-0 vs Kalieva. Sortie de defaite R1 RG vs Putintseva (4-6 6-4 6-1) il y a 7 jours = transition rapide clay->grass = chaos 1. Gibson reste favori naturel par marge de classement + H2H. P_finale 0.768 = niveau CERTAIN."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "match": "Stoiana, Mary vs Sun, Lulu",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Sun, Lulu (ML)",
      "cote": 1.49,
      "cote_plancher": 1.49,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.7,
      "probabilite_marche": "67.1%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.671,
      "p_finale_num": 0.691,
      "edge_num": 0.02,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Sun (NZ) avec experience grass tres superieure (Wimbledon QF 2024) face a Stoiana (USA). Avantage surface explicitement note dans data brutes. Pas de H2H mais ecart d'experience grass est marquant. P_finale 0.691 = CONFIANT solide, edge +2%."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - WTA 125K Birmingham, Great Britain Women Singles",
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Inglis, Maddison",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Naef, Celine (ML)",
      "cote": 1.31,
      "cote_plancher": 1.34,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.77,
      "probabilite_marche": "76.3%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.763,
      "p_finale_num": 0.768,
      "edge_num": 0.005,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Naef seed #10 Birmingham (20 ans, Suisse) avec experience grass solide (demi-finale WTA 125 Ilkley 2025). Adversaire Inglis (AUS) sans donnees recentes notables. Ecart de niveau et momentum favorise Naef. P_finale 0.768 = CERTAIN, chaos 0."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Dang, Yiming vs Alvisi, Eleonora",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.66/2.09 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Aucun cote dans la zone 1.30-1.50 tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cortez Llorca, Lucia vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Cote home pile a 1.50 - exclus."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kozyreva, Maria vs Radisic, Nika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.76/1.96 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prisacariu, Andreea vs Dell'Edera, Francesca",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.03 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 9.60 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote favori trop basse et outsider trop haute."
    },
    {
      "match": "Yaneva, Elizara vs Pigato, Lisa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 2.24/1.58 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML autorisee."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pieri, Tatiana vs Bosio, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.72/2.01 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakellaridi, Sapfo vs Costoulas, Sofia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 5.20 > 3.00 (NO BET 1) et 1.13 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cotes hors range, gros desequilibre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lepchenko, Varvara vs Shymanovich, Iryna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "15:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.85/1.85 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Match coin-flip, NB10 active."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Svajda, Zachary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.13 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 6.40 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Cobolli ultra-favori, Svajda outsider trop haut."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cerundolo, Juan Manuel vs Berrettini, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 2.32/1.64 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Berrettini 1.64 et Cerundolo 2.32 hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tiafoe, Frances vs Arnaldi, Matteo",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.89/1.92 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Match equilibre, NB10 active."
    },
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Tabilo, Alejandro",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.55/2.46 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Auger-Aliassime 1.55 hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Keys, Madison vs Shnaider, Diana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.65/2.30 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Chwalinska, Maja vs Parry, Diane",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.56/2.50 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sabalenka, Aryna vs Osaka, Naomi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Roland-Garros",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote 1.21 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) et 4.50 > 3.00 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Sabalenka #1 mondiale ultra-favorite, Osaka outsider hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Klimovicova, Linda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 1.62/2.17 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stojsavljevic, Mika vs Jones, Emerson",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-1.7% < 0) - marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Stojsavljevic WC en breakout BJK Cup, Jones AUS favori marche 1.46. p_estimee 0.66 < p_marche 0.685 -> shrinkage donne p_finale 0.667, edge -1.7%. Garde universelle edge>=0 declenche NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Knutson, Gabriela vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cotes 2.15/1.63 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) - zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Hors zone tennis ML."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 4,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 2,
      "CONFIANT": 2,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 28,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "7.0u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 10.78,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+38.5%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "73.0%",
      "details": "2xCERTAIN + 2xCONFIANT + 0xPROBABLE"
    }
  }
}