{
  "date": "2026-06-02",
  "generated": "2026-06-02T07:15:00",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_estimee": 0.78,
        "p_marche": "75.8%",
        "p_finale": 77.3
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "selection": "Zverev, Alexander",
        "cote": 1.32,
        "edge": 0.016
      },
      "raisonnement": "Zverev (n°2 seed, 29 ans) - 6e QF consecutive a RG, finaliste 2024, n'a perdu qu'1 set sur le tournoi. Jodar (19 ans, ATP 27) - 1er Roland Garros, fatigue accumulee (3 matchs 5 sets sur 4). Consensus modeles Dimers 72-74%. Avantage net experience + surface + fraicheur."
    },
    {
      "match": "Minnen, Greet vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_estimee": 0.74,
        "p_marche": "72.5%",
        "p_finale": 73.5
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "selection": "Minnen, Greet",
        "cote": 1.38,
        "edge": 0.011
      },
      "raisonnement": "Minnen (entree Lucky Loser) - TENANTE du titre Birmingham 2025 (vs Fruhvirtova 6-2 6-1), jeu plat efficace gazon naturel. Charaeva (wildcard) - niveau inferieur tour, peu de reperes gazon Birmingham. Avantage net favoriser de la tenante de titre sur sa surface preferentielle."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jeanjean, Leolia vs Rinaldo Persson, Kajsa",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_estimee": 0.75,
        "p_marche": "74.6%",
        "p_finale": 74.9
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "selection": "Jeanjean, Leolia",
        "cote": 1.34,
        "edge": 0.003
      },
      "raisonnement": "Jeanjean (francaise, specialiste terre) - profil terre confirmedans le passe, regulariere sur la surface. Rinaldo Persson - peu d'historique tour WTA 125, profil scandinave moins adapte terre. Marche favorise Jeanjean (1.34) en coherence avec niveau. DQ-B sur l'adversaire mais alignement surface_avantage + p_marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs You, Xiaodi",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "p_estimee": 0.72,
        "p_marche": "71.4%",
        "p_finale": 71.8
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "selection": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre",
        "cote": 1.4,
        "edge": 0.004
      },
      "raisonnement": "Romero Gormaz (n°4 seed) - espagnole specialiste terre. You Xiaodi peu de reperes tour, niveau probablement inferieur. Tete de serie + avantage surface clairs."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Cirstea, Sorana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva (1.52) - NO BET 10 ML >= 1.50. Marches OU/Hcp non-validables sans recherche profil serveur double-validation."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Kostyuk, Marta",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Match tres serre. Kostyuk @1.78 et Svitolina @2.09 hors zone tennis ML rentable. Kostyuk 16-0 terre saison mais Svitolina remontada vs Bencic. Pas de spot fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Fonseca, Joao",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-0.3% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Fonseca @1.46 - p_finale 0.682 vs p_marche 0.685. Avantage terre Fonseca reel (battu Djokovic R3, Ruud R4) mais marche deja trop pricing l'avantage. Edge tres marginalement negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bartunkova, Nikola vs Dart, Harriet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Bartunkova @1.79 vs Dart @1.92. Surface_avantage indique Dart (joueuse domicile + experience gazon UK). Match equilibre, pas de spot."
    },
    {
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Hon, Priscilla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Eala @1.17 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Hon @4.50",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Eala @1.17 hors borne basse (NO BET 1). Hon @4.50 hors borne haute. Aucune option dans [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Martincova, Tereza",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-2.2% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Masarova @1.33 - p_marche 0.752 dejade haut. Aucune donnee fiable form pour s'ecarter du marche. p_finale ~0.730. Edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hibino, Nao vs Tjen, Janice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-4.1% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tjen @1.41 favorite mais surface_avantage indique Hibino (experience gazon tour). Signal divergent, Tjen p_finale 0.668 < p_marche 0.709."
    },
    {
      "match": "Day, Kayla vs Vandewinkel, Hanne",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Vandewinkel (n°6) @1.72 hors zone. Day @2.01 hors zone. Pas de spot ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Swan, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-1.8% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tomljanovic @1.48 - 2x QF Wimbledon mais Swan a domicile + energie BJK Cup. p_estimee 0.65 vs marche 0.676. Edge legerement negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Knutson, Gabriela vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Garland @1.65 et Knutson @2.11 hors zone ML rentable. Pas de form data fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Inglis, Maddison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-5.9% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Naef @1.46 favorite mais surface_avantage Inglis (profil australien gazon offensif). Divergence majeure marche/surface. p_finale 0.626 < marche 0.685."
    },
    {
      "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Dudeney, Alicia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Preston @1.54 hors zone ML. Aucune donnee form pour creer une lecture qualitative ailleurs."
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Fruhvirtova, Linda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Maria @1.68 (championne Queen's 2025) hors zone. Fruhvirtova @2.06 hors zone. Match haut niveau gazon mais pas de spot dans la zone rentable [1.30-1.49]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Sakatsume, Himeno",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-1.3% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Krueger @1.30 - p_marche 0.769 deja eleve. Avantage qualitatif evident (puissance + classement) mais marche pricing fairement. p_finale 0.756 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Papamichail, Despina vs Paquet, Chloe",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Paquet @1.50 exactement = NO BET 10 (>= 1.50). Papamichail @2.42 hors zone. Specialistes terre toutes deux, pas de spot."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tubello, Alice vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni h2h ni surface_avantage",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tubello @1.40 favorite marche mais aucune base qualitative pour valider (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Trop d'incertitude."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prozorova, Tatiana vs Brancaccio, Nuria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Prozorova @1.57 hors zone. Brancaccio (n°5 seed italienne) @2.27 hors zone. Surface_avantage Brancaccio mais cote ne suit pas."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prisacariu, Andreea vs Radisic, Nika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni surface_avantage",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Prisacariu @1.31 favorite marche mais aucune base qualitative (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Impossible de valider edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pedone, Giorgia vs Gorgodze, Ekaterine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Pedone @1.83 et Gorgodze @1.88 toutes hors zone ML. Match ouvert."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif, Maiar vs Martinez Cirez, Carlota",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Sherif @1.08 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Cirez @6.40",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Sherif (n°1) @1.08 et Cirez @6.40 - les deux hors borne [1.30, 3.00]. NO BET 1 absolu."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tona, Miriana vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Tona @1.85 et Turini @1.85 - cotes egales, match completement ouvert italiennes a domicile. Pas de signal."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zaar, Lisa vs Grant, Tyra Caterina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Zaar @3.05 / tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) sur Grant @1.33",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Zaar @3.05 marginalement hors borne haute. Grant @1.33 sub-zone (<1.50) MAIS aucune base qualitative pour valider (no form, no h2h)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mair, Laura vs Dang, Yiming",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "14:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni surface_avantage",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Mair @1.35 favorite mais aucune donnee qualitative (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Pas de base pour valider edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paganetti, Vittoria vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Bronzetti @1.16 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Paganetti @4.60",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Bronzetti @1.16 (ex-top 50) hors borne. Paganetti (wildcard) @4.60 hors borne. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kabbaj, Yasmine vs Jakupovic, Dalila",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-5.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Kabbaj @1.49 favorite mais surface_avantage Jakupovic (experience tour). Signal divergent fort. p_finale Kabbaj 0.621 < marche 0.671."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Erika vs Avanesyan, Elina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Avanesyan @1.71 hors zone. H2h Avanesyan 2-0 + 67% terre carriere, mais cote pas dans la fenetre rentable [1.30-1.49]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Urhobo, Akasha vs Boskovic, Lea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-6.2% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Urhobo @1.41 favorite mais surface_avantage Boskovic (avantage domicile croate). Divergence. p_finale Urhobo 0.647 < marche 0.709."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hennemann, Caijsa Wilda vs Niemeier, Jule",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-7.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Hennemann @1.37 favorite marche mais Niemeier (TENANTE 2022 Makarska 125, allemande tour WTA) clairement superieure qualite. Divergence majeure marche/surface_avantage. NO BET fort."
    },
    {
      "match": "Konjuh, Ana vs Salkova, Dominika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Salkova @1.05 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Konjuh @7.80",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Salkova (n°6) @1.05 hors borne. Konjuh (wildcard, ex-top 20, avantage domicile) @7.80 hors borne. Inattendu vu le profil Konjuh mais hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bulgaru, Miriam Bianca vs Noha Akugue, Noma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Noha Akugue @1.25 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Bulgaru @3.60",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Noha Akugue @1.25 hors borne. Bulgaru @3.60 hors borne."
    },
    {
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Kostovic, Teodora",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Waltert @1.66 et Kostovic @2.09 hors zone. Pas de donnees form."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zidansek, Tamara vs Hercog, Polona",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "15:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Zidansek (ex-1/2 finaliste RG 2021) @1.67 et Hercog @2.09 hors zone. Match slovenes terre solide mais hors fenetre rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sorribes Tormo, Sara vs Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": null,
      "stats_comparatives": null,
      "raisonnement": "Sorribes Tormo (ex-top 30 espagnole specialiste terre) @1.61 hors zone. Jimenez Kasintseva @2.18 hors zone."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "match": "Jodar, Rafael vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Zverev, Alexander",
      "cote": 1.32,
      "cote_plancher": 1.328,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "75.8%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.758,
      "p_finale_num": 0.773,
      "edge_num": 0.016,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Zverev (n°2 seed, 29 ans) - 6e QF consecutive a RG, finaliste 2024, n'a perdu qu'1 set sur le tournoi. Jodar (19 ans, ATP 27) - 1er Roland Garros, fatigue accumulee (3 matchs 5 sets sur 4). Consensus modeles Dimers 72-74%. Avantage net experience + surface + fraicheur."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "match": "Minnen, Greet vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Minnen, Greet",
      "cote": 1.38,
      "cote_plancher": 1.398,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.74,
      "probabilite_marche": "72.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.725,
      "p_finale_num": 0.735,
      "edge_num": 0.011,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Minnen (entree Lucky Loser) - TENANTE du titre Birmingham 2025 (vs Fruhvirtova 6-2 6-1), jeu plat efficace gazon naturel. Charaeva (wildcard) - niveau inferieur tour, peu de reperes gazon Birmingham. Avantage net favoriser de la tenante de titre sur sa surface preferentielle."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "match": "Jeanjean, Leolia vs Rinaldo Persson, Kajsa",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Jeanjean, Leolia",
      "cote": 1.34,
      "cote_plancher": 1.372,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.75,
      "probabilite_marche": "74.6%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.746,
      "p_finale_num": 0.749,
      "edge_num": 0.003,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Jeanjean (francaise, specialiste terre) - profil terre confirmedans le passe, regulariere sur la surface. Rinaldo Persson - peu d'historique tour WTA 125, profil scandinave moins adapte terre. Marche favorise Jeanjean (1.34) en coherence avec niveau. DQ-B sur l'adversaire mais alignement surface_avantage + p_marche."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs You, Xiaodi",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre",
      "cote": 1.4,
      "cote_plancher": 1.432,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.72,
      "probabilite_marche": "71.4%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.714,
      "p_finale_num": 0.718,
      "edge_num": 0.004,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Romero Gormaz (n°4 seed) - espagnole specialiste terre. You Xiaodi peu de reperes tour, niveau probablement inferieur. Tete de serie + avantage surface clairs."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Mirra vs Cirstea, Sorana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Andreeva (1.52) - NO BET 10 ML >= 1.50. Marches OU/Hcp non-validables sans recherche profil serveur double-validation."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svitolina, Elina vs Kostyuk, Marta",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Women Singles",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Match tres serre. Kostyuk @1.78 et Svitolina @2.09 hors zone tennis ML rentable. Kostyuk 16-0 terre saison mais Svitolina remontada vs Bencic. Pas de spot fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Fonseca, Joao",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP - French Open Men Singles",
      "heure": "18:15",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-0.3% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Fonseca @1.46 - p_finale 0.682 vs p_marche 0.685. Avantage terre Fonseca reel (battu Djokovic R3, Ruud R4) mais marche deja trop pricing l'avantage. Edge tres marginalement negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bartunkova, Nikola vs Dart, Harriet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Bartunkova @1.79 vs Dart @1.92. Surface_avantage indique Dart (joueuse domicile + experience gazon UK). Match equilibre, pas de spot."
    },
    {
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Hon, Priscilla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Eala @1.17 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Hon @4.50",
      "raisonnement": "Eala @1.17 hors borne basse (NO BET 1). Hon @4.50 hors borne haute. Aucune option dans [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Martincova, Tereza",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-2.2% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Masarova @1.33 - p_marche 0.752 dejade haut. Aucune donnee fiable form pour s'ecarter du marche. p_finale ~0.730. Edge negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hibino, Nao vs Tjen, Janice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-4.1% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Tjen @1.41 favorite mais surface_avantage indique Hibino (experience gazon tour). Signal divergent, Tjen p_finale 0.668 < p_marche 0.709."
    },
    {
      "match": "Day, Kayla vs Vandewinkel, Hanne",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Vandewinkel (n°6) @1.72 hors zone. Day @2.01 hors zone. Pas de spot ML."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tomljanovic, Ajla vs Swan, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-1.8% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Tomljanovic @1.48 - 2x QF Wimbledon mais Swan a domicile + energie BJK Cup. p_estimee 0.65 vs marche 0.676. Edge legerement negatif."
    },
    {
      "match": "Knutson, Gabriela vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Garland @1.65 et Knutson @2.11 hors zone ML rentable. Pas de form data fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Inglis, Maddison",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-5.9% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Naef @1.46 favorite mais surface_avantage Inglis (profil australien gazon offensif). Divergence majeure marche/surface. p_finale 0.626 < marche 0.685."
    },
    {
      "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Dudeney, Alicia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "13:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Preston @1.54 hors zone ML. Aucune donnee form pour creer une lecture qualitative ailleurs."
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Fruhvirtova, Linda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Maria @1.68 (championne Queen's 2025) hors zone. Fruhvirtova @2.06 hors zone. Match haut niveau gazon mais pas de spot dans la zone rentable [1.30-1.49]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Sakatsume, Himeno",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Birmingham",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-1.3% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger @1.30 - p_marche 0.769 deja eleve. Avantage qualitatif evident (puissance + classement) mais marche pricing fairement. p_finale 0.756 < marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Papamichail, Despina vs Paquet, Chloe",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Paquet @1.50 exactement = NO BET 10 (>= 1.50). Papamichail @2.42 hors zone. Specialistes terre toutes deux, pas de spot."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tubello, Alice vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni h2h ni surface_avantage",
      "raisonnement": "Tubello @1.40 favorite marche mais aucune base qualitative pour valider (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Trop d'incertitude."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prozorova, Tatiana vs Brancaccio, Nuria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Prozorova @1.57 hors zone. Brancaccio (n°5 seed italienne) @2.27 hors zone. Surface_avantage Brancaccio mais cote ne suit pas."
    },
    {
      "match": "Prisacariu, Andreea vs Radisic, Nika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni surface_avantage",
      "raisonnement": "Prisacariu @1.31 favorite marche mais aucune base qualitative (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Impossible de valider edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pedone, Giorgia vs Gorgodze, Ekaterine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Pedone @1.83 et Gorgodze @1.88 toutes hors zone ML. Match ouvert."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif, Maiar vs Martinez Cirez, Carlota",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Sherif @1.08 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Cirez @6.40",
      "raisonnement": "Sherif (n°1) @1.08 et Cirez @6.40 - les deux hors borne [1.30, 3.00]. NO BET 1 absolu."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tona, Miriana vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Tona @1.85 et Turini @1.85 - cotes egales, match completement ouvert italiennes a domicile. Pas de signal."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zaar, Lisa vs Grant, Tyra Caterina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Zaar @3.05 / tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) sur Grant @1.33",
      "raisonnement": "Zaar @3.05 marginalement hors borne haute. Grant @1.33 sub-zone (<1.50) MAIS aucune base qualitative pour valider (no form, no h2h)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mair, Laura vs Dang, Yiming",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "14:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "données insuffisantes — DQ-B sans form ni surface_avantage",
      "raisonnement": "Mair @1.35 favorite mais aucune donnee qualitative (no form, no h2h, no surface_avantage). Pas de base pour valider edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Paganetti, Vittoria vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Foggia",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Bronzetti @1.16 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Paganetti @4.60",
      "raisonnement": "Bronzetti @1.16 (ex-top 50) hors borne. Paganetti (wildcard) @4.60 hors borne. NO BET 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kabbaj, Yasmine vs Jakupovic, Dalila",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-5.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Kabbaj @1.49 favorite mais surface_avantage Jakupovic (experience tour). Signal divergent fort. p_finale Kabbaj 0.621 < marche 0.671."
    },
    {
      "match": "Andreeva, Erika vs Avanesyan, Elina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Avanesyan @1.71 hors zone. H2h Avanesyan 2-0 + 67% terre carriere, mais cote pas dans la fenetre rentable [1.30-1.49]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Urhobo, Akasha vs Boskovic, Lea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-6.2% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Urhobo @1.41 favorite mais surface_avantage Boskovic (avantage domicile croate). Divergence. p_finale Urhobo 0.647 < marche 0.709."
    },
    {
      "match": "Hennemann, Caijsa Wilda vs Niemeier, Jule",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-7.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Hennemann @1.37 favorite marche mais Niemeier (TENANTE 2022 Makarska 125, allemande tour WTA) clairement superieure qualite. Divergence majeure marche/surface_avantage. NO BET fort."
    },
    {
      "match": "Konjuh, Ana vs Salkova, Dominika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Salkova @1.05 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Konjuh @7.80",
      "raisonnement": "Salkova (n°6) @1.05 hors borne. Konjuh (wildcard, ex-top 20, avantage domicile) @7.80 hors borne. Inattendu vu le profil Konjuh mais hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bulgaru, Miriam Bianca vs Noha Akugue, Noma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "cote < 1.30 (NO BET 1) sur Noha Akugue @1.25 / cote > 3.00 (NO BET 1) sur Bulgaru @3.60",
      "raisonnement": "Noha Akugue @1.25 hors borne. Bulgaru @3.60 hors borne."
    },
    {
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Kostovic, Teodora",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "14:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Waltert @1.66 et Kostovic @2.09 hors zone. Pas de donnees form."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zidansek, Tamara vs Hercog, Polona",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "15:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Zidansek (ex-1/2 finaliste RG 2021) @1.67 et Hercog @2.09 hors zone. Match slovenes terre solide mais hors fenetre rentable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sorribes Tormo, Sara vs Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K - Makarska",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Sorribes Tormo (ex-top 30 espagnole specialiste terre) @1.61 hors zone. Jimenez Kasintseva @2.18 hors zone."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 4,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 3,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 26,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "6.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 9.28,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+35.7%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "74.4%",
      "details": "Moyenne p_finale_num = 0.744"
    }
  }
}