{
  "date": "2026-06-04",
  "generated": "2026-06-04T07:13:05",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "victoire_home_Eala": "82%",
        "victoire_away_Charaeva": "18%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "ranking_home": "WTA #37",
        "ranking_away": "WTA #130",
        "surface_home_2025": "10-5 gazon",
        "h2h": "Eala 1-0 (Manila, straight sets)",
        "forme_home_R32": "6-0 6-2 vs Hon"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Eala #37 WTA vs Charaeva #130 WTA. Ecart ranking massif (-93 places). Eala 10-5 sur gazon 2025, victoire dominante 6-0 6-2 vs Hon au R32 Birmingham. H2H 1-0 Eala (Manila WTA Philippine Open R32, straight sets). Surface fit clair pour Eala (gazon). Cote 1.30 = borne basse mais sous le seuil NO BET 10 (< 1.50, zone rentable tennis ML). Chaos 0, DQ-A. p_finale 0.80 >= 0.75 -> CERTAIN."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Tjen, Janice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Krueger, Ashlyn a 1.77, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Birmingham, Tjen #2 seed mais novice sur gazon."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Day, Kayla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Sawangkaew, Mananchaya a 1.67, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Match R16 Birmingham, Sawangkaew favorite légère selon cotes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-0.7% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Naef LL avec ranking limite vs Stoiana replacement. Donnees tres minces, p_estimee 0.68 ~ p_marche 0.69. Garde universelle edge>=0 echoue."
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Masarova, Rebeka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Masarova, Rebeka a 1.70, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Birmingham, Maria légère outsider cote selon Stake (2.030 vs 1.700)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Monnet, Carole vs Prozorova, Tatiana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-2.8% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Prozorova favorite marche (1.37). Monnet finaliste WTA 125 Florianopolis 2025 + victoire facile R1 vs Tubello. p_estimee Prozorova 0.69 < p_marche 0.73. Garde universelle edge>=0 echoue."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.11 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Romero Gormaz, Leyre grand favori a 1.11, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar vs Pedone, Giorgia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.12 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar grand favori a 1.12, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mair, Laura vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "17:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.04 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Bronzetti, Lucia grand favori a 1.04, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinaldo Persson, Kajsa vs Noha Akugue, Noma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Noha Akugue, Noma a 1.57, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska terre, match serré selon cotes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Lazaro Garcia, Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Waltert, Simona a 1.56, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska, Waltert favorite mais forme récente irrégulière."
    },
    {
      "match": "Avanesyan, Elina vs Salkova, Dominika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Salkova, Dominika a 1.80, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska terre, match équilibré."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Andreeva, Mirra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA French Open",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Kostyuk, Marta a 1.70, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Demi-finale RG. Kostyuk 1ère SF Grand Slam, Andreeva seed 8 vs Kostyuk seed 15."
    },
    {
      "match": "Shnaider, Diana vs Chwalinska, Maja",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA French Open",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "NO_BET",
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML Shnaider, Diana a 1.53, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Demi-finale RG. Chwalinska conte de fées, Shnaider favorite officielle."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Eala, Alexandra",
      "cote": 1.3,
      "cote_plancher": 1.274,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "p_estimee": 0.82,
      "probabilite_marche": "76.9%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7692,
      "p_finale_num": 0.8048,
      "edge_num": 0.0355,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Eala #37 WTA vs Charaeva #130 WTA. Ecart ranking massif (-93 places). Eala 10-5 sur gazon 2025, victoire dominante 6-0 6-2 vs Hon au R32 Birmingham. H2H 1-0 Eala (Manila WTA Philippine Open R32, straight sets). Surface fit clair pour Eala (gazon). Cote 1.30 = borne basse mais sous le seuil NO BET 10 (< 1.50, zone rentable tennis ML). Chaos 0, DQ-A. p_finale 0.80 >= 0.75 -> CERTAIN."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Tjen, Janice",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Krueger, Ashlyn a 1.77, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Birmingham, Tjen #2 seed mais novice sur gazon."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sawangkaew, Mananchaya vs Day, Kayla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "10:40",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Sawangkaew, Mananchaya a 1.67, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Match R16 Birmingham, Sawangkaew favorite légère selon cotes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-0.7% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Naef LL avec ranking limite vs Stoiana replacement. Donnees tres minces, p_estimee 0.68 ~ p_marche 0.69. Garde universelle edge>=0 echoue."
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Masarova, Rebeka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Masarova, Rebeka a 1.70, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Birmingham, Maria légère outsider cote selon Stake (2.030 vs 1.700)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Monnet, Carole vs Prozorova, Tatiana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-2.8% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Prozorova favorite marche (1.37). Monnet finaliste WTA 125 Florianopolis 2025 + victoire facile R1 vs Tubello. p_estimee Prozorova 0.69 < p_marche 0.73. Garde universelle edge>=0 echoue."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Turini, Viola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.11 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Romero Gormaz, Leyre grand favori a 1.11, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar vs Pedone, Giorgia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.12 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz, Maiar grand favori a 1.12, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mair, Laura vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "17:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "NO BET 1 — favori cote 1.04 < 1.30 (extreme favori, edge mathematique negligeable)",
      "raisonnement": "Cote ML extreme. Bronzetti, Lucia grand favori a 1.04, hors fenetre fiable [1.30, 3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rinaldo Persson, Kajsa vs Noha Akugue, Noma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Noha Akugue, Noma a 1.57, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska terre, match serré selon cotes."
    },
    {
      "match": "Waltert, Simona vs Lazaro Garcia, Andrea",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Waltert, Simona a 1.56, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska, Waltert favorite mais forme récente irrégulière."
    },
    {
      "match": "Avanesyan, Elina vs Salkova, Dominika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 0,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Salkova, Dominika a 1.80, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: R16 Makarska terre, match équilibré."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kostyuk, Marta vs Andreeva, Mirra",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA French Open",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Kostyuk, Marta a 1.70, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Demi-finale RG. Kostyuk 1ère SF Grand Slam, Andreeva seed 8 vs Kostyuk seed 15."
    },
    {
      "match": "Shnaider, Diana vs Chwalinska, Maja",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA French Open",
      "heure": "14:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML Shnaider, Diana a 1.53, au-dela du plafond 1.50 (NO BET 10, restriction empirique n=90 ROI -26% sur 1.40-1.60). Contexte: Demi-finale RG. Chwalinska conte de fées, Shnaider favorite officielle."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 1,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 0,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 8,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "2u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 2.4,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+30.0%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "80%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN(0.805) -> p_finale moyenne 0.805"
    }
  }
}