{
  "date": "2026-06-05",
  "generated": "2026-06-05T07:12:49",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Sawangkaew, Mananchaya",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Eala, Alexandra",
        "p_finale": "77.4%",
        "p_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.36,
        "edge": "+3.8%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Eala tete de serie n1 (#37 WTA), nettement au-dessus du niveau d'un tableau 125K. Parcours dominant: 6-0 6-2 vs Hon puis 6-2 7-5 vs Charaeva. Stats gazon 2025 solides (59% 1re balle, ~50% BP converties). Sawangkaew clairement en dessous. Ecart de niveau majeur, favori clair. p_finale 0.774 (CERTAIN), edge +3.8%. Cote 1.36 < 1.50 (NO BET 10 OK)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Arnaldi, Matteo vs Cobolli, Flavio",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP French Open",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Cobolli, Flavio",
        "p_finale": "72.7%",
        "p_marche": "71.9%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "marche": "ML",
        "cote": 1.39,
        "edge": "+0.7%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "SF Roland Garros. Cobolli plus frais (n'a lache que 2 sets, bat Auger-Aliassime en QF), Arnaldi physiquement entame par plusieurs 5-setters marathon (record 17h42 cumule). H2H 3-2 Arnaldi global MAIS Cobolli a gagne le dernier a RG 2025 sur cette surface. Fraicheur + ascendant recent surface = favori legitime. p_finale 0.727 (CONFIANT), edge +0.7%. Cote 1.39 < 1.50 (NO BET 10 OK)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP French Open",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori Zverev 1.27 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marche trop court",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Zverev favori a 1.27, sous le plancher 1.30. Edge mathematique negligeable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (~-0.5% < 0) — marche aligne, pas de surcote",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Krueger 1.33 (p_marche 0.752). Elle a sorti la 2e TdS Tjen mais le marche price deja cet avantage; p_estimee ~marche. Edge <= 0 -> NO BET (garde universelle)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees insuffisantes pour battre le marche, edge <= 0",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Masarova favorite cote 1.32 (p 0.758) mais aucune donnee differenciante (pas de H2H, pas de stats). p_estimee s'aligne sur le marche -> edge ~0/negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bartunkova, Nikola vs Stojsavljevic, Mika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge ~0 + adversaire prospect dangereuse sur gazon, donnees minces",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bartunkova 1.38 favorite mais Stojsavljevic est un prospect britannique performant sur gazon. Pas de H2H ni stats detaillees. Incertitude -> chaos 2, edge negligeable. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees trop minces (1 score), edge negligeable (+0.4%)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Romero 1.44 (p 0.694), un seul match de reference (6-4 6-4 vs Turini), pas de H2H. Edge razor-thin, donnee insuffisante pour CONFIANT honnete. NO BET > pari fragile."
    },
    {
      "match": "Grant, Tyra Caterina vs Pieri, Tatiana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori Grant 1.04 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Grant favorite extreme a 1.04. Hors range fiable [1.30,3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pedone, Giorgia vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori Bronzetti 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bronzetti favorite a 1.28, sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lazaro Garcia, Andrea vs Semenistaja, Darja",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Cotes ML 1.63/2.15, les deux >= 1.50. Match equilibre hors zone rentable tennis (<1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Palicova, Barbora vs Avanesyan, Elina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (~-0.3% < 0) + cote 1.30 limite — marche aligne",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Avanesyan mieux classee, favorite 1.30 (p 0.769). Le marche price deja l'ecart; p_estimee <= marche -> edge negatif. NO BET (garde + cote limite NO BET 1)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Timofeeva, Maria vs Kabbaj, Yasmine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "15:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote favori Timofeeva 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Timofeeva favorite a 1.15, hors range fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Noha Akugue, Noma vs Sorribes Tormo, Sara",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "15:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "ML 2.24/1.58, les deux >= 1.50. Match serre hors zone rentable tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees quantitatives manquantes (pace/ppg/papg = None) + injury Spurs non identifie",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "NBA Finals G2. Formule de projection OU inexploitable: pace_home/away, ppg_l5, papg_l5 tous absents. G1 tres bas (200 total) mais n=1, fort risque de regression offensive NYK (ORtg playoffs 123.3). Spurs ont 1 joueur non identifie sur le radar. Incertitude trop elevee (chaos 2) sans base quantitative -> NO BET."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Sawangkaew, Mananchaya",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Eala, Alexandra",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.33,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.79,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.735,
      "p_finale_num": 0.774,
      "edge_num": 0.038,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Eala tete de serie n1 (#37 WTA), nettement au-dessus du niveau d'un tableau 125K. Parcours dominant: 6-0 6-2 vs Hon puis 6-2 7-5 vs Charaeva. Stats gazon 2025 solides (59% 1re balle, ~50% BP converties). Sawangkaew clairement en dessous. Ecart de niveau majeur, favori clair. p_finale 0.774 (CERTAIN), edge +3.8%. Cote 1.36 < 1.50 (NO BET 10 OK)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP French Open",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_GS",
      "match": "Arnaldi, Matteo vs Cobolli, Flavio",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "selection": "Cobolli, Flavio",
      "cote": 1.39,
      "cote_plancher": 1.41,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.73,
      "probabilite_marche": "71.9%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.719,
      "p_finale_num": 0.727,
      "edge_num": 0.007,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "SF Roland Garros. Cobolli plus frais (n'a lache que 2 sets, bat Auger-Aliassime en QF), Arnaldi physiquement entame par plusieurs 5-setters marathon (record 17h42 cumule). H2H 3-2 Arnaldi global MAIS Cobolli a gagne le dernier a RG 2025 sur cette surface. Fraicheur + ascendant recent surface = favori legitime. p_finale 0.727 (CONFIANT), edge +0.7%. Cote 1.39 < 1.50 (NO BET 10 OK)."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Mensik, Jakub vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP French Open",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori Zverev 1.27 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marche trop court",
      "raisonnement": "Zverev favori a 1.27, sous le plancher 1.30. Edge mathematique negligeable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Preston, Taylah vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (~-0.5% < 0) — marche aligne, pas de surcote",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger 1.33 (p_marche 0.752). Elle a sorti la 2e TdS Tjen mais le marche price deja cet avantage; p_estimee ~marche. Edge <= 0 -> NO BET (garde universelle)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Stoiana, Mary",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees insuffisantes pour battre le marche, edge <= 0",
      "raisonnement": "Masarova favorite cote 1.32 (p 0.758) mais aucune donnee differenciante (pas de H2H, pas de stats). p_estimee s'aligne sur le marche -> edge ~0/negatif. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bartunkova, Nikola vs Stojsavljevic, Mika",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Birmingham",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "edge ~0 + adversaire prospect dangereuse sur gazon, donnees minces",
      "raisonnement": "Bartunkova 1.38 favorite mais Stojsavljevic est un prospect britannique performant sur gazon. Pas de H2H ni stats detaillees. Incertitude -> chaos 2, edge negligeable. NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "13:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "donnees trop minces (1 score), edge negligeable (+0.4%)",
      "raisonnement": "Romero 1.44 (p 0.694), un seul match de reference (6-4 6-4 vs Turini), pas de H2H. Edge razor-thin, donnee insuffisante pour CONFIANT honnete. NO BET > pari fragile."
    },
    {
      "match": "Grant, Tyra Caterina vs Pieri, Tatiana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori Grant 1.04 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Grant favorite extreme a 1.04. Hors range fiable [1.30,3.00]."
    },
    {
      "match": "Pedone, Giorgia vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Foggia",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori Bronzetti 1.28 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Bronzetti favorite a 1.28, sous le plancher 1.30."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lazaro Garcia, Andrea vs Semenistaja, Darja",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Cotes ML 1.63/2.15, les deux >= 1.50. Match equilibre hors zone rentable tennis (<1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Palicova, Barbora vs Avanesyan, Elina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "14:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (~-0.3% < 0) + cote 1.30 limite — marche aligne",
      "raisonnement": "Avanesyan mieux classee, favorite 1.30 (p 0.769). Le marche price deja l'ecart; p_estimee <= marche -> edge negatif. NO BET (garde + cote limite NO BET 1)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Timofeeva, Maria vs Kabbaj, Yasmine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "15:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori Timofeeva 1.15 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "Timofeeva favorite a 1.15, hors range fiable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Noha Akugue, Noma vs Sorribes Tormo, Sara",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Makarska",
      "heure": "15:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "ML 2.24/1.58, les deux >= 1.50. Match serre hors zone rentable tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks",
      "sport": "basketball",
      "ligue": "NBA",
      "heure": "00:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "donnees quantitatives manquantes (pace/ppg/papg = None) + injury Spurs non identifie",
      "raisonnement": "NBA Finals G2. Formule de projection OU inexploitable: pace_home/away, ppg_l5, papg_l5 tous absents. G1 tres bas (200 total) mais n=1, fort risque de regression offensive NYK (ORtg playoffs 123.3). Spurs ont 1 joueur non identifie sur le radar. Incertitude trop elevee (chaos 2) sans base quantitative -> NO BET."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 2,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 1,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 14,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "3.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 5.22,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+37.3%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "75%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN(0.774) + 1xCONFIANT(0.727) -> moyenne 0.750"
    }
  }
}