{
  "date": "2026-06-07",
  "generated": "2026-06-07T07:14:35",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Bartunkova, Nikola",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA_125",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Eala, Alexandra",
        "p_finale": "72%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "cote": 1.46,
        "edge": "3.9%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Birmingham WTA125 (gazon). Eala TS1 (WTA 37), parcours dominant sans perdre un set (6-0 6-2 vs Hon, bat Masarova en demie), bien meilleure forme que 2025. Bartunkova (WTA 69) dispute son premier tournoi sur gazon ET sa premiere finale WTA en simple. Avantage net surface+momentum. p_est 0.74 -> shrinkage 0.723, edge +3.9%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Grant, Tyra Caterina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA_125",
      "heure": "16:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Grant, Tyra Caterina",
        "p_finale": "71%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "cote": 1.44,
        "edge": "1.8%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Foggia WTA125 (terre). Grant (18 ans) a domine tout le tournoi (6-4 6-1 vs Pieri, 6-1 demie), recents 2e tours Madrid+Rome WTA1000, titre W75 Kosice. Romero Gormaz (TS4) sortie en remontada en demie. Momentum/talent montant. p_est 0.72 -> 0.712, edge +1.8%. chaos 1 (jeunesse en finale)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Burrage, Jodie vs Blinkova, Anna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA_QUALIF",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Blinkova, Anna",
        "p_finale": "70%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis",
        "cote": 1.45,
        "edge": "0.7%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Quali Queen's (Q1, gazon). Ecart de classement majeur : Blinkova WTA 103 vs Burrage WTA 558. Burrage joue a domicile et mene H2H 1-0 (US Open 2023) -> menace reelle (chaos 2). Blinkova favorite logique malgre forme irreguliere. p_est 0.70 -> 0.697, edge +0.7% (mince mais positif)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cross, Kayla vs Knight, Megan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Kozyreva, Maria vs Ngounoue, Clervie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Bush, Tegan vs Appleton, Emily",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Tan, Harmony vs Rajecki, Amelia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs McDonald, Ella",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Pridankina @1.330 dans la zone ML mais aucune donnee forme/H2H. p_estimee non chiffrable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stoiber, Ranah Akua vs Allen, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Allen @1.460 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Dunne, Katy vs Kobori, Momoko",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Kuwata, Hiroko",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Black, Brooke Anna vs Martincova, Tereza",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shymanovich, Iryna vs Dada-Mascoll, Savannah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Griffiths, Edie vs Bains, Naiktha",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Valdmannova, Vendula vs Ishii, Sayaka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Valdmannova @1.360 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Koevermans, Anouk",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Seidel, Ella vs Minnen, Greet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Minnen en feu sur gazon (6 victoires, titre Birmingham) mais cote 1.510 >= 1.50 -> NO BET 10."
    },
    {
      "match": "Volynets, Katie vs Zhu, Lin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-1.7% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Volynets @1.380 (p_marche 0.725) mais p_finale ~0.708 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Montgomery, Robin vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Huesler, Marc-Andrea vs Onclin, Gauthier",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shimabukuro, Sho vs Rodionov, Jurij",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Safiullin, Roman vs Galarneau, Alexis",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Alkaya, Mert vs Herbert, Pierre-Hugues",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Hon, Priscilla vs Kudermetova, Polina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "probabilite insuffisante / edge quasi nul — Hon en serie de 8 victoires sur 10",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Kudermetova @1.480 legere favorite modele (~72%) mais Hon (WTA143) tres en forme. p_finale ~0.66 edge ~0/negatif -> NO BET prudence."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gibson, Talia vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (~-1.0% < 0) — marche price efficacement l'ecart de classement",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Gibson (WTA58) @1.400 vs Charaeva (WTA130). Ecart deja price (p_marche 0.714). p_finale ~0.704 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jacquemot, Elsa vs Guo, Hanyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:35",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Jacquemot @1.560 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) + saison 3-14 catastrophique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gorgodze, Ekaterine vs Rakhimova, Kamilla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Miyazaki, Yuriko Lily",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Visker, Niels vs Ymer, Elias",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge negatif (-1.5% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Ymer @1.350 (p_marche 0.741) mais Visker en forte progression (+198) et a domicile. p_finale ~0.726 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "McCabe, James vs Jong, Sander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "McCabe @1.330 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland Garros (Finale)",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Roland Garros. Zverev nettement favori (~78% modele) mais cote 1.250 < 1.30 (NO BET 1). Cobolli 4.100 > 3.00. Aucune selection dans l'intervalle."
    },
    {
      "match": "Semenistaja, Darja vs Timofeeva, Maria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Makarska (Finale)",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "tennis"
      },
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Makarska (terre). Cotes 1.970/1.740 toutes deux >= 1.50 -> NO BET 10. Match equilibre."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125",
      "match": "Eala, Alexandra vs Bartunkova, Nikola",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Eala, Alexandra",
      "cote": 1.46,
      "cote_plancher": 1.42,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.74,
      "probabilite_marche": "68%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.685,
      "p_finale_num": 0.723,
      "edge_num": 0.039,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6.0,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Birmingham WTA125 (gazon). Eala TS1 (WTA 37), parcours dominant sans perdre un set (6-0 6-2 vs Hon, bat Masarova en demie), bien meilleure forme que 2025. Bartunkova (WTA 69) dispute son premier tournoi sur gazon ET sa premiere finale WTA en simple. Avantage net surface+momentum. p_est 0.74 -> shrinkage 0.723, edge +3.9%."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125",
      "match": "Romero Gormaz, Leyre vs Grant, Tyra Caterina",
      "heure": "16:30",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Grant, Tyra Caterina",
      "cote": 1.44,
      "cote_plancher": 1.44,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.72,
      "probabilite_marche": "69%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.694,
      "p_finale_num": 0.712,
      "edge_num": 0.018,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6.0,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Foggia WTA125 (terre). Grant (18 ans) a domine tout le tournoi (6-4 6-1 vs Pieri, 6-1 demie), recents 2e tours Madrid+Rome WTA1000, titre W75 Kosice. Romero Gormaz (TS4) sortie en remontada en demie. Momentum/talent montant. p_est 0.72 -> 0.712, edge +1.8%. chaos 1 (jeunesse en finale)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_QUALIF",
      "match": "Burrage, Jodie vs Blinkova, Anna",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Blinkova, Anna",
      "cote": 1.45,
      "cote_plancher": 1.48,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.7,
      "probabilite_marche": "69%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.69,
      "p_finale_num": 0.697,
      "edge_num": 0.007,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6.0,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Quali Queen's (Q1, gazon). Ecart de classement majeur : Blinkova WTA 103 vs Burrage WTA 558. Burrage joue a domicile et mene H2H 1-0 (US Open 2023) -> menace reelle (chaos 2). Blinkova favorite logique malgre forme irreguliere. p_est 0.70 -> 0.697, edge +0.7% (mince mais positif)."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Cross, Kayla vs Knight, Megan",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Kozyreva, Maria vs Ngounoue, Clervie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Bush, Tegan vs Appleton, Emily",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Tan, Harmony vs Rajecki, Amelia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Pridankina, Elena vs McDonald, Ella",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "raisonnement": "Pridankina @1.330 dans la zone ML mais aucune donnee forme/H2H. p_estimee non chiffrable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Stoiber, Ranah Akua vs Allen, Victoria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "raisonnement": "Allen @1.460 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Dunne, Katy vs Kobori, Momoko",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Kuwata, Hiroko",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Black, Brooke Anna vs Martincova, Tereza",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shymanovich, Iryna vs Dada-Mascoll, Savannah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Griffiths, Edie vs Bains, Naiktha",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Valdmannova, Vendula vs Ishii, Sayaka",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Ilkley",
      "heure": "13:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "raisonnement": "Valdmannova @1.360 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vandewinkel, Hanne vs Koevermans, Anouk",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Seidel, Ella vs Minnen, Greet",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Minnen en feu sur gazon (6 victoires, titre Birmingham) mais cote 1.510 >= 1.50 -> NO BET 10."
    },
    {
      "match": "Volynets, Katie vs Zhu, Lin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-1.7% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Volynets @1.380 (p_marche 0.725) mais p_finale ~0.708 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Montgomery, Robin vs Garland, Joanna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Huesler, Marc-Andrea vs Onclin, Gauthier",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Shimabukuro, Sho vs Rodionov, Jurij",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90"
    },
    {
      "match": "Safiullin, Roman vs Galarneau, Alexis",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Alkaya, Mert vs Herbert, Pierre-Hugues",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Monnet, Carole",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Hon, Priscilla vs Kudermetova, Polina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "probabilite insuffisante / edge quasi nul — Hon en serie de 8 victoires sur 10",
      "raisonnement": "Kudermetova @1.480 legere favorite modele (~72%) mais Hon (WTA143) tres en forme. p_finale ~0.66 edge ~0/negatif -> NO BET prudence."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gibson, Talia vs Charaeva, Alina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "09:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (~-1.0% < 0) — marche price efficacement l'ecart de classement",
      "raisonnement": "Gibson (WTA58) @1.400 vs Charaeva (WTA130). Ecart deja price (p_marche 0.714). p_finale ~0.704 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jacquemot, Elsa vs Guo, Hanyu",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:35",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Jacquemot @1.560 >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) + saison 3-14 catastrophique."
    },
    {
      "match": "Gorgodze, Ekaterine vs Rakhimova, Kamilla",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Maria, Tatjana vs Miyazaki, Yuriko Lily",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Quali Queen's",
      "heure": "11:45",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)"
    },
    {
      "match": "Visker, Niels vs Ymer, Elias",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "10:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge negatif (-1.5% < 0) — marche juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Ymer @1.350 (p_marche 0.741) mais Visker en forte progression (+198) et a domicile. p_finale ~0.726 < p_marche -> edge negatif -> NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "McCabe, James vs Jong, Sander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Quali S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "donnees insuffisantes (match non recherche) — p_estimee non calculable, anti-hallucination",
      "raisonnement": "McCabe @1.330 dans la zone ML mais match non recherche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cobolli, Flavio vs Zverev, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Roland Garros (Finale)",
      "heure": "13:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote hors intervalle [1.30-3.00] des deux cotes (NO BET 1)",
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Roland Garros. Zverev nettement favori (~78% modele) mais cote 1.250 < 1.30 (NO BET 1). Cobolli 4.100 > 3.00. Aucune selection dans l'intervalle."
    },
    {
      "match": "Semenistaja, Darja vs Timofeeva, Maria",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125 Makarska (Finale)",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "FINALE Makarska (terre). Cotes 1.970/1.740 toutes deux >= 1.50 -> NO BET 10. Match equilibre."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 3,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 0,
      "CONFIANT": 3,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 18.0,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "4.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 8.1,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+45%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "71%",
      "details": "3xCONFIANT moyenne p_finale 0.711"
    }
  }
}