{
  "date": "2026-06-12",
  "generated": "2026-06-12T07:05:00",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Majchrzak, Kamil",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Auger-Aliassime",
        "p_finale": "76.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "cote": 1.33,
        "p_marche": "75.2%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "QF gazon. FAA n4 mondial (career high), 24-11 en 2026, vainqueur net de Fucsovics en R2. Modeles 73% (StatsInsider), H2H 2-0. Majchrzak en confiance gazon (5-1) = seul risque, integre via chaos 1. Jeu service-coup droit de FAA taille pour cette surface."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mandlik, Elizabeth vs Galfi, Dalma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Galfi",
        "p_finale": "77.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "cote": 1.31,
        "p_marche": "76.3%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Match reporte de la veille (pluie Ilkley). Galfi TS6, nette favorite (cotes US -313, ~76%), references gazon. Mandlik sans forme documentee. p_finale 0.775 = zone CERTAIN mais donnees partielles cote Mandlik -> DQ-B, downgrade CONFIANT (regle d'arbitrage v4). Chaos 1 (report meteo)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Swan, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Golubic",
        "p_finale": "69.3%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "ML",
        "cote": 1.48,
        "p_marche": "67.6%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Golubic TS1, finaliste Oeiras recemment, references gazon solides (QF Wimbledon 2021), victoire propre en 2 sets vs Britton. Swan a domicile mais n'a battu qu'une qualifiee. Cotes US -204 (~67%). Profondeur de donnees 125K -> DQ-B. Cote 1.48 sous le seuil NO BET 10 (1.50)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Under 2.5",
        "p_finale": "60.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "type": "OU_BUTS",
        "cote": 1.63,
        "p_marche": "61.3%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Ouverture CDM pour le Canada a Toronto (BMO Field). Matchs d'ouverture historiquement fermes, Forebet predit 1-1, nul tres joue. Bosnie en preparation sterile (0-0 Macedoine, 1-1 Panama), attaque vieillissante (Dzeko 40 ans). Canada solide mais pression du co-hote. Edge -0.9% dans la tolerance foot (>= -2%). data_quality C selections nationales -> DQ-C, mise plafonnee 0.5u. Chaos 2 (ouverture + regle poule CDM +1)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Zhang, Zhizhen vs Mannarino, Adrian",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Favori Mannarino a 1.61, hors zone ML tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bonzi, Benjamin vs de Minaur, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.19 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "De Minaur a 1.19 : aucune valeur d'information malgre modeles a 77-78%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mpetshi Perricard, Giovanni vs Bublik, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Bublik a 1.51, juste au-dessus du seuil. Duel de serveurs = tie-breaks probables, variance maximale."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bellucci, Mattia vs Fritz, Taylor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Fritz net favori (modeles 72%) mais cote 1.29 sous le plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lehecka, Jiri vs Tiafoe, Frances",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "15:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Lehecka favori a 1.71 : hors zone. Modeles partages (54%), match serre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Ruse, Elena-Gabriela",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-1.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Krejcikova en grande forme cette semaine mais modeles ~63% vs marche 69.4%. p_estimee 0.68 -> p_finale 0.684 < p_marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonmez, Zeynep vs Linette, Magda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Match 50/50 (1.85/1.86), modeles divergents."
    },
    {
      "match": "Snigur, Daria vs Montgomery, Robin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Snigur favorite a 1.69 : hors zone malgre saison 32-9."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cristian, Jaqueline vs Boulter, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-4.9% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Boulter favorite (1.43) mais modeles 56% seulement. p_estimee 0.63 -> p_finale 0.651 tres sous le marche (0.699). Meme lecture que la veille."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rybakina, Elena vs Maria, Tatjana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.17 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Rybakina ecrase la cote mais Maria l'a deja battue sur ce gazon : aucun interet a 1.17."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Anisimova, Amanda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Anisimova favorite a 1.71 : hors zone. Premiere confrontation, match potentiellement serre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Dudeney, Alicia vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "cote 1.20 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Krueger a 1.20. Attention : Dudeney vient de gagner Birmingham (9/10), upset pas exclu — confirme le NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tan, Harmony vs Tararudee, Lanlana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Tararudee favorite a 1.71 : hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Urhobo, Akasha",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:05",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "edge négatif (-1.5% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Traders 72% vs marche 74.1% : p_estimee 0.72 -> p_finale 0.726 < p_marche. Urhobo mieux classee que Naef."
    },
    {
      "match": "Salkova, Dominika vs Kawa, Katarzyna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Salkova favorite a 1.69 : hors zone (~57% modeles)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria vs Romero Gormaz, Leyre",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Romero Gormaz favorite a 1.52 : hors zone. Donnees insuffisantes de toute facon (DQ-C)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Brancaccio, Nuria vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Derby italien equilibre (1.59/2.22), H2H 1-1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Quevedo, Kaitlin vs Samson, Laura",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "18:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": false,
      "raison_no_bet": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "niveau_confiance_v4": null,
      "probabilites": {},
      "stats_comparatives": {},
      "raisonnement": "Quasi pile ou face (1.87/1.83)."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "ligue_canonique": "ATP_250",
      "match": "Auger-Aliassime, Felix vs Majchrzak, Kamil",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Auger-Aliassime",
      "cote": 1.33,
      "cote_plancher": 1.34,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.77,
      "probabilite_marche": "75.2%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7519,
      "p_finale_num": 0.7646,
      "edge_num": 0.0127,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "QF gazon. FAA n4 mondial (career high), 24-11 en 2026, vainqueur net de Fucsovics en R2. Modeles 73% (StatsInsider), H2H 2-0. Majchrzak en confiance gazon (5-1) = seul risque, integre via chaos 1. Jeu service-coup droit de FAA taille pour cette surface."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "match": "Mandlik, Elizabeth vs Galfi, Dalma",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Galfi",
      "cote": 1.31,
      "cote_plancher": 1.32,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "76.3%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.7634,
      "p_finale_num": 0.775,
      "edge_num": 0.0116,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Match reporte de la veille (pluie Ilkley). Galfi TS6, nette favorite (cotes US -313, ~76%), references gazon. Mandlik sans forme documentee. p_finale 0.775 = zone CERTAIN mais donnees partielles cote Mandlik -> DQ-B, downgrade CONFIANT (regle d'arbitrage v4). Chaos 1 (report meteo)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "ligue_canonique": "WTA_125K",
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Swan, Katie",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "marche": "Match Winner",
      "marche_canonique": "ML",
      "selection": "Golubic",
      "cote": 1.48,
      "cote_plancher": 1.49,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.7,
      "probabilite_marche": "67.6%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.6757,
      "p_finale_num": 0.6927,
      "edge_num": 0.017,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Golubic TS1, finaliste Oeiras recemment, references gazon solides (QF Wimbledon 2021), victoire propre en 2 sets vs Britton. Swan a domicile mais n'a battu qu'une qualifiee. Cotes US -204 (~67%). Profondeur de donnees 125K -> DQ-B. Cote 1.48 sous le seuil NO BET 10 (1.50)."
    },
    {
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "ligue_canonique": "CDM",
      "match": "Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina",
      "heure": "19:00",
      "marche": "Over/Under 2.5 buts",
      "marche_canonique": "OU_BUTS",
      "selection": "Under 2.5",
      "cote": 1.63,
      "cote_plancher": 1.71,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.6,
      "probabilite_marche": "61.3%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.6135,
      "p_finale_num": 0.604,
      "edge_num": -0.0094,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "PROBABLE",
      "mise_unites": "0.5u",
      "mise_euros": 2,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Ouverture CDM pour le Canada a Toronto (BMO Field). Matchs d'ouverture historiquement fermes, Forebet predit 1-1, nul tres joue. Bosnie en preparation sterile (0-0 Macedoine, 1-1 Panama), attaque vieillissante (Dzeko 40 ans). Canada solide mais pression du co-hote. Edge -0.9% dans la tolerance foot (>= -2%). data_quality C selections nationales -> DQ-C, mise plafonnee 0.5u. Chaos 2 (ouverture + regle poule CDM +1)."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Zhang, Zhizhen vs Mannarino, Adrian",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Favori Mannarino a 1.61, hors zone ML tennis."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bonzi, Benjamin vs de Minaur, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.19 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "raisonnement": "De Minaur a 1.19 : aucune valeur d'information malgre modeles a 77-78%."
    },
    {
      "match": "Mpetshi Perricard, Giovanni vs Bublik, Alexander",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Bublik a 1.51, juste au-dessus du seuil. Duel de serveurs = tie-breaks probables, variance maximale."
    },
    {
      "match": "Bellucci, Mattia vs Fritz, Taylor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "10:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.29 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "raisonnement": "Fritz net favori (modeles 72%) mais cote 1.29 sous le plancher."
    },
    {
      "match": "Lehecka, Jiri vs Tiafoe, Frances",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP 250 Stuttgart",
      "heure": "15:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Lehecka favori a 1.71 : hors zone. Modeles partages (54%), match serre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Krejcikova, Barbora vs Ruse, Elena-Gabriela",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-1.0% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Krejcikova en grande forme cette semaine mais modeles ~63% vs marche 69.4%. p_estimee 0.68 -> p_finale 0.684 < p_marche."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonmez, Zeynep vs Linette, Magda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Match 50/50 (1.85/1.86), modeles divergents."
    },
    {
      "match": "Snigur, Daria vs Montgomery, Robin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 250 s-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Snigur favorite a 1.69 : hors zone malgre saison 32-9."
    },
    {
      "match": "Cristian, Jaqueline vs Boulter, Katie",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-4.9% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Boulter favorite (1.43) mais modeles 56% seulement. p_estimee 0.63 -> p_finale 0.651 tres sous le marche (0.699). Meme lecture que la veille."
    },
    {
      "match": "Rybakina, Elena vs Maria, Tatjana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.17 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "raisonnement": "Rybakina ecrase la cote mais Maria l'a deja battue sur ce gazon : aucun interet a 1.17."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jovic, Iva vs Anisimova, Amanda",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 500 London",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Anisimova favorite a 1.71 : hors zone. Premiere confrontation, match potentiellement serre."
    },
    {
      "match": "Dudeney, Alicia vs Krueger, Ashlyn",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote 1.20 < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marché trop court",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger a 1.20. Attention : Dudeney vient de gagner Birmingham (9/10), upset pas exclu — confirme le NO BET."
    },
    {
      "match": "Tan, Harmony vs Tararudee, Lanlana",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "11:50",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Tararudee favorite a 1.71 : hors zone."
    },
    {
      "match": "Naef, Celine vs Urhobo, Akasha",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "12:05",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge négatif (-1.5% < 0) — marché juge la cote trop haute",
      "raisonnement": "Traders 72% vs marche 74.1% : p_estimee 0.72 -> p_finale 0.726 < p_marche. Urhobo mieux classee que Naef."
    },
    {
      "match": "Salkova, Dominika vs Kawa, Katarzyna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Salkova favorite a 1.69 : hors zone (~57% modeles)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Jimenez Kasintseva, Victoria vs Romero Gormaz, Leyre",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-C",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Romero Gormaz favorite a 1.52 : hors zone. Donnees insuffisantes de toute facon (DQ-C)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Brancaccio, Nuria vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "16:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Derby italien equilibre (1.59/2.22), H2H 1-1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Quevedo, Kaitlin vs Samson, Laura",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "18:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Quasi pile ou face (1.87/1.83)."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 4,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 2,
      "PROBABLE": 1
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 22,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "5.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 8.64,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+39.3%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "71%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN(0.765) + 2xCONFIANT(0.734) + 1xPROBABLE(0.604) -> moyenne 0.709"
    }
  }
}