{
  "date": "2026-06-14",
  "generated": "2026-06-14T07:15:16",
  "model_version": "4.0",
  "protocol_version": "4.0",
  "analyses": [
    {
      "match": "Germany vs Curacao",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Non (pas les deux marquent)",
        "p_finale": "77%",
        "p_marche": "73.5%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "marche": "BTTS",
        "cote": 1.36,
        "edge": "3.2%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Allemagne sur 9 victoires consecutives, ultra-favorite (ML 1.03) face a un Curacao qui dispute la 1re Coupe du Monde de son histoire. L'Allemagne marquera quasi certainement; Curacao tres peu susceptible de marquer face a un bloc allemand de ce niveau (Neuer, Tah, Schlotterbeck). BTTS Non = au moins une equipe ne marque pas, scenario tres probable. Gnabry forfait sans impact sur la profondeur de l'effectif. p_estimee 0.78 (P(Curacao ne marque pas) ~0.78). Group stage = chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "match": "Ivory Coast vs Ecuador",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "heure": "23:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "pari_retenu": true,
      "raison_no_bet": null,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "probabilites": {
        "selection": "Under 2.5 buts",
        "p_finale": "70%",
        "p_marche": "69.4%"
      },
      "stats_comparatives": {
        "marche": "OU_BUTS",
        "cote": 1.44,
        "edge": "1.1%"
      },
      "raisonnement": "Deux blocs defensifs solides. Equateur invaincu sur 19 matchs, seulement 5 buts encaisses en 18 matchs de qualifs (defense d'elite, 0.28 GA/match). Cote d'Ivoire egalement orientee defense. Match d'ouverture des deux equipes, neutre, jeu ferme attendu = Under 2.5 fortement supporte. N'Dicka probable forfait (impact mineur). p_estimee 0.71. Chaos 2 (group stage CDM + 1er match competitif). Marge fine mais probabiliste solide."
    }
  ],
  "paris": [
    {
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "ligue_canonique": "CDM",
      "match": "Germany vs Curacao",
      "heure": "17:00",
      "marche_canonique": "BTTS",
      "selection": "Non (pas les deux marquent)",
      "cote": 1.36,
      "cote_plancher": 1.34,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "p_estimee": 0.78,
      "probabilite_marche": "73.5%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.735,
      "p_finale_num": 0.767,
      "edge_num": 0.032,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CERTAIN",
      "mise_unites": "2u",
      "mise_euros": 8,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Allemagne sur 9 victoires consecutives, ultra-favorite (ML 1.03) face a un Curacao qui dispute la 1re Coupe du Monde de son histoire. L'Allemagne marquera quasi certainement; Curacao tres peu susceptible de marquer face a un bloc allemand de ce niveau (Neuer, Tah, Schlotterbeck). BTTS Non = au moins une equipe ne marque pas, scenario tres probable. Gnabry forfait sans impact sur la profondeur de l'effectif. p_estimee 0.78 (P(Curacao ne marque pas) ~0.78). Group stage = chaos 1."
    },
    {
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "ligue_canonique": "CDM",
      "match": "Ivory Coast vs Ecuador",
      "heure": "23:00",
      "marche_canonique": "OU_BUTS",
      "selection": "Under 2.5 buts",
      "cote": 1.44,
      "cote_plancher": 1.46,
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 2,
      "p_estimee": 0.71,
      "probabilite_marche": "69.4%",
      "p_marche_num": 0.694,
      "p_finale_num": 0.705,
      "edge_num": 0.011,
      "niveau_confiance_v4": "CONFIANT",
      "mise_unites": "1.5u",
      "mise_euros": 6,
      "model_version": "4.0",
      "protocol_version": "4.0",
      "raisonnement": "Deux blocs defensifs solides. Equateur invaincu sur 19 matchs, seulement 5 buts encaisses en 18 matchs de qualifs (defense d'elite, 0.28 GA/match). Cote d'Ivoire egalement orientee defense. Match d'ouverture des deux equipes, neutre, jeu ferme attendu = Under 2.5 fortement supporte. N'Dicka probable forfait (impact mineur). p_estimee 0.71. Chaos 2 (group stage CDM + 1er match competitif). Marge fine mais probabiliste solide."
    }
  ],
  "no_bet": [
    {
      "match": "Netherlands vs Japan",
      "sport": "football",
      "ligue": "Coupe du Monde 2026",
      "heure": "20:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "p_finale_num victoire NL ~0.52 < 0.55; DC 1X (1.29) et 12 (1.27) < 1.30 (NO BET 1); aucun marche ne franchit le seuil PROBABLE",
      "raisonnement": "Japon prive de Mitoma ET Endo (absences majeures) affaiblit l'attaque nipponne -> BTTS Yes peu fiable. NL favorite mais ML 2.01 (p_finale 0.52) sous le seuil. Totals 2.5 en pick'em (1.89/1.89). Aucun edge exploitable."
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonego, Lorenzo vs Basilashvili, Nikoloz",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Halle Qualifying",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Collignon, Raphael vs Bautista Agut, Roberto",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Halle Qualifying",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-B",
      "chaos": 2,
      "raison": "tour de qualification — data web insuffisante (note_ws), p_estimee non chiffrable de facon fiable; edge non garanti ≥ 0 (NO BET tennis)",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Landaluce, Martin vs Gentzsch, Tom",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Halle Qualifying",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marche trop court, edge negligeable",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Bellucci, Mattia vs Bolt, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Halle Qualifying",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Parry, Diane vs Seidel, Ella",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Lamens, Suzan vs Galfi, Dalma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Sun, Lulu vs Kalinina, Anhelina",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "09:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Frech, Magdalena vs Zhang, Shuai",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Kudermetova, Polina vs Kraus, Sinja",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "10:55",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Masarova, Rebeka vs Pohankova, Mia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Berlin Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Montgomery, Robin vs Krejcikova, Barbora",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "edge nul/negatif — Krejcikova favorite a 1.33 (p_marche 0.752); p_finale ~0.74-0.75 n'apporte pas d'edge ≥ 0 face a une Montgomery tres performante sur gazon cette semaine",
      "raisonnement": "Krejcikova niveau superieur (8e TS, 4 victoires cette semaine) mais Montgomery (revient de blessure, meilleur tennis de sa carriere sur gazon) cree un risque d'upset reel. Le marche price deja 75%, pas d'edge."
    },
    {
      "match": "Volynets, Katie vs Birrell, Kimberly",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Blinkova, Anna vs Bondar, Anna",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "10:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Golubic, Viktorija vs Kenin, Sofia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Ruzic, Antonia vs Preston, Taylah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Sakatsume, Himeno vs Dudeney, Alicia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Sonmez, Zeynep vs Klugman, Hannah",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA Nottingham Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:20",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marche trop court, edge negligeable",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Krueger, Ashlyn vs Naef, Celine",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Ilkley",
      "heure": "10:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Krueger favorite 1.61 (NO BET 10); match equilibre (les deux en excellente forme gazon, Naef mene H2H 1-0)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Svajda, Zachary vs Damm Jr, Martin",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP London Qualifying",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Vukic, Aleksandar vs Wendelken, Harry",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP London Qualifying",
      "heure": "11:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Hijikata, Rinky vs Giron, Marcos",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP London Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Kovacevic, Aleksandar vs Mpetshi Perricard, Giovanni",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP London Qualifying",
      "heure": "12:10",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": ""
    },
    {
      "match": "Shelton, Ben vs Fritz, Taylor",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP Stuttgart",
      "heure": "12:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Finale Stuttgart en pick'em (1.87/1.87), modele predictif 51% Fritz — aucun edge, et ML >= 1.50 (NO BET 10)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Vekic, Donna vs Raducanu, Emma",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA London",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Raducanu favorite 1.65 (NO BET 10); finale serree, Vekic redoutable sur gazon bas (SF Wimbledon 2024)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Majchrzak, Kamil vs de Minaur, Alex",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "ATP S-Hertogenbosch",
      "heure": "12:30",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "cote favori < 1.30 (NO BET 1) — marche trop court, edge negligeable",
      "raisonnement": "de Minaur favori a 1.24 < 1.30 (NO BET 1)."
    },
    {
      "match": "Kawa, Katarzyna vs Bronzetti, Lucia",
      "sport": "tennis",
      "ligue": "WTA 125K Modena",
      "heure": "18:00",
      "dq_flag": "DQ-A",
      "chaos": 1,
      "raison": "tennis ML cote >= 1.50 (NO BET 10) — zone non rentable n=90",
      "raisonnement": "Bronzetti favorite a domicile 1.81 (NO BET 10); Kawa en bonne forme terre (titre Huzhou). Cote ML hors zone rentable."
    }
  ],
  "resume": {
    "total_paris": 2,
    "repartition_niveaux": {
      "CERTAIN": 1,
      "CONFIANT": 1,
      "PROBABLE": 0
    },
    "exposition_totale_euros": 14,
    "exposition_totale_unites": "3.5u",
    "gain_potentiel_si_tous_gagnants": {
      "profit_net_euros": 5.52,
      "ROI_potentiel": "+39%"
    },
    "calibration_attendue": {
      "win_rate_attendu_si_calibration_parfaite": "74%",
      "details": "1xCERTAIN(0.767) + 1xCONFIANT(0.705) -> moyenne 0.736"
    }
  }
}